nport

Nine Reasons for Dow 6000

To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail. And to all the technicians on this thread, everything points down. Well, it is what it is: so if you make good money trading, bless you. But I for one, will continue to use the market rather than be guided by it!

Why the Dow Is Headed to 6000

The only reasonable voice here is Warren Tee Smith ..step forward Warren, u get the prize today! The only sensible investor on this thread. Branch Rickey once said: " Wisdom is the residue of experience." And Mr. Smith and I share a whole bunch of business cycles which have taught us that things are never as bad as the bears think (read P. Schiff) nor as great as the bulls believe (read A. Greenspan). Those of you who are with Schiff are confused. You think Gold will save you. Well my friends, Gold, more likely as not will break your heart. I have seen it happen many times over the past 45 years. Of course, I could be wrong. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Warren Buffett and his co-chair at BRKA, Charlie Munger, buy good companies run by honest and able managers when their equity can be bought at prices which provide a margin of safety. See (The Intelligent Investor, by Benjamin Graham). They don't spend a great deal of time on Macroeconomics, interest rates, the money supply etc. They just buy keep buying hamburger when it is on sale. Those of you attracted to trading, see head & shoulders, cups & saucers, have my profound sympathy for your addiction. Mr. Smith and I both understand that optimism is the enemy of rationality and being perpetually bearish can be harmful to your financial health. Buffett has said concentrate on what is knowable (Know·a·ble a. That may be known; capable of being discovered, understood, or ascertained) and what is important and waste no time predicting the future. (Unknowable) I don't know if the Dow is going to 6,000 or ? but I believe now is as good a time as any to seek value. You will pay a high price for certainty. Smith and I have made good money in the past and we will continue to abide by our long held beliefs re: investing for the long run. Look you can't have it both ways..If the dollar is in a long term secular downtrend, then by definition, inflation will rule. Everything we buy from other nations will cost more. That means inflation. and the first thing you will notice is investors running from dollars. Before they run for metals they exchange dollars for stocks. Don't believe me? Check out the bull run in 1967-69. This time next year, maybe even late in 09, I would expect the same thing to happen. So 6000? or 15000? Who knows? What I firmly believe and have experienced is, profits await the investor prepared to take advantage of Mr. Market.
Don't follow the crowd; think for yourself; read, read, read!

Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60%

It's a question of how you view the future. I bought Homestake Mining in 2000 when Gold was at $275-300. Paid $15 - the company was acquired by Barrick Gold. So I'm long ABX as a hedge on my portfolio. I won't sell unless I get big bucks. Don't speculate on the price of Gold or Art. That depends on Mr. Market and you know how how manic-depressive he/she can get. Just find great companies to buy that have competitive advantages; stay long, keep the faith. It isn't either or; stocks can and will be the core of the long run portfolio; however, hedge when precious metals are out of favor. For they will forever find a way to keep pace with inflation. And inflation..is coming.