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  • The Fed is likely to keep the full $85B QE program in place when it meets next week, writes Jon Hilsenrath, but on the table should be whether to refine its forward guidance, particularly whether to lower the 6.5% UE rate threshold for tightening policy. At issue is the Fed's desire to calm market worries over an imminent hike in interest rates. In the running for Fed chief, Larry Summers suggests the UE threshold might be too high.  [View news story]
    I think the FED is eyeing the yield on the 10yr more than anything else... over 2.5% has got to worry them a bit. Maybe they scare the market a bit with some "Taper Talk" to push money back into USTs
    Jul 25, 2013. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cornell economist Robert Frank compares Sweden's state-run healthcare system with healthcare in the U.S. and finds that while the latter country spends over double the amount of money, "outcomes are far better in Sweden along virtually every dimension." Opponents of Obamacare should focus on improving it, not trying to repeal it. "Because of pervasive market failures in private health care markets, this may be the sector that benefits most from collective action," writes Frank.  [View news story]
    "Because of pervasive market failures in private health care markets, this may be the sector that benefits most from collective action," writes Frank...

    I don't know of any true, free market health-care system... Every healthcare system in the world can be, at a minimum ,said to be heavily STATE influenced! It seems a little naïve to suggest market failures, when at every corner gov'ts impede the market.
    Jun 16, 2013. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prices of iron ore hit a seven-month low today, and are down 30% since hitting a year high in February, as prices get hit by a demand slowdown in China and a glut of supply. Analysts are predicting more declines, with Westpac projecting iron ore prices to drop to as low as $85 a ton by the end of September. Liberum Capital notes that its channel checks show the price may fall below $90 a ton. "The market is flush with product at the moment," says RBS Morgans resources analyst James Wilson. "Pricing power has switched from the iron-ore miners to the steel mills."  [View news story]
    Only in this new age of central banking hocus pocus can the public be sold on a "global economic expansion" with demand for the basic building blocks of growth falling of a cliff...
    May 30, 2013. 12:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Italy says Cumberland's Bill Witherell as the far left coming out on top following the split election means government is going to lean more towards growth rather than austerity. Rather than trying to pick individual stocks, he's recommending EWI as a quick way to get exposure to the whole Italian stock market.  [View news story]
    "lean more towards growth"

    You mean towards more debt right?
    May 7, 2013. 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down."  [View news story]
    An interesting note in the jobs report was that total hours worked each week dropped by 12 minutes. If these new hires are simply replacing hours of existing employees so that business owners can skate under the 30 hour work week requirement for ObamaCare, then it's not a good sign.... (they have until the end of the year to get everyone under 30 hours)

    We'll have to watch that over the next couple job reports to see how it pans out... will be telling.
    May 4, 2013. 10:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down."  [View news story]
    "Don't fight the FED" is the new "Home prices can never go down"
    May 4, 2013. 10:37 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Apple's (AAPL) FQ2 call: Mix shift towards iPhone 4 responsible for iPhone ASP drop; iPhone channel inventory up 1M Q/Q. Greater China sell-thru growth was 18% Y/Y, above reported (sell-in) 8%. Revenue mix shift towards iPad hurt gross margin, expected to fall to 36%-37% in FQ3 due to lower revenue and mix, partly offset by lower costs. Tim Cook talks of "exciting new product categories" (an iWatch?). While Cook said competitors made tradeoffs to offer ~5" phones, he didn't mention one-handed use (Apple's traditional critique) - is he hinting one will eventually arrive? AAPL -0.3% AH, as investors focus on FQ3 guidance (implies rev. growth of -4% to +2% Y/Y). CRUS -1.9%. (transcript) (previous[View news story]
    Jobs is gone... plain and simple... it takes a special kind of person to a.) to be so innovative and b.) keep so many other creative people focused on the details...Cook just ain't that kind of person
    Apr 23, 2013. 11:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There could be some cracks in the nascent housing recovery, says economist David Rosenberg. "We certainly have a housing recovery," he acknowledges, however net household formation figures could be exposing some distortions. For example, while existing home sales are hitting three-year highs, Rosenberg notes a lack of first-time buyers, as well as a distinct absence of 'natural buyers.' "Almost a quarter of those sales are institutional investors gobbling up homes and then re-renting them out," he says. "That's not a natural buyer." And, what we're seeing isn't healthy net household formation. (Video[View news story]
    As soon as these hedge funds realize owning 1000s of homes isn't the cash cow they thought it would be, they'll be dumping them just as fast...
    Mar 21, 2013. 08:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Markets tumbled across the board - stocks, oil, gold and the euro - as what was already a broad-based decline became a full-fledged selloff after the Fed signaled growing unease about its stimulus efforts. While the S&P and Nasdaq fell more than 1%, the Dow was off only 0.7%, surprising considering the weakness in Caterpillar as it reported a global sales slowdown[View news story]
    the Fed is taking cues from Draghi and Abe (scary right?).... jawbone as you say, without actually doing anything....
    Feb 20, 2013. 09:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Age Is More Than Just A Number: Adjusting Auto Sales Projections For The Demographic Shift  [View article]
    You're spot on... but as the baby boomers reach retirement, they will spend less and hang onto durable goods in this case cars longer as well. In other words, even before hitting ager 65 (retirement), car sales in the 55-64 age bracket will suffer as well.
    Dec 20, 2012. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Average pump prices in California hit a record $4.614/gallon yesterday vs. $4.145 a week earlier following refinery and pipeline outages, with one downtown LA station even selling regular grade at $5.49/gallon. Prices might now have peaked, as Exxon's Torrance refinery resumed normal ops on Friday after experiencing power problems.  [View news story]
    Californians can blame their own legislatures for this fiasco, as they have made the state a closed fuel market... special rules on seasonal blends don't allow retailers to have excess supply shipped in from out of state...
    Oct 7, 2012. 09:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Traders are still speculating about what caused the late selloff in crude oil yesterday. The Kilduff Report's Michael Fitzpatrick says it wasn’t a release by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, nor was it some unusual trading activity. It was long liquidation, simple as that. JBC Energy adds that the fact that a selloff occurred for both Nymex crude and Brent “implies that this was no technical glitch, but rather a profit-taking strategy by major market participants that were worried about a price correction.”  [View news story]
    The Saudi Sovereign Fund is a interesting candidate for the short trade???

    After expressing discomfort with the rising price levels and the pressure on the global economy.

    Probably doesn't even matter very much to them if they lost a couple million on the trade. Fast and effective way to carry out it's wishes.
    Sep 18, 2012. 08:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More FOMC: A closer look reveals the true dovish nature of the statement: "If the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency MBS, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate ... a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens." Gold +1% to $1,749.  [View news story]
    good, wait... better deals are to be had sir
    Sep 13, 2012. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More FOMC: A closer look reveals the true dovish nature of the statement: "If the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency MBS, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate ... a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens." Gold +1% to $1,749.  [View news story]
    a lot of good that 3% mortgage will do yah, when your house drops 25% in price... hold on to your boot straps sir
    Sep 13, 2012. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Announcement: QE3 is on to the tune of an open-ended pledge to buy $40B in MBS per month. The pledge to keep rates extraordinarily low is extended until mid-2015.  [View news story]
    40 Billion a month? A bit on the low end... sounds like Uncle Ben didn't really want to do anything, but got a little election year nudge!
    Sep 13, 2012. 12:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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