Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff and the Gold Bugs: A Guide for Investors
From the back cover: "......an in depth look at the predictions of the 'gold bugs' that the US dollar is headed for catastrophic collapse. While Peter Schiff and other gold bugs have described at length their visions of an apocalyptic future certain to befall the US dollar, and their investment advice to prepare, they have offered scant convincing detail to support their position that massive, money-supply triggered inflation is surely coming. The author forgoes the usual macroeconomic theories, graphs and charts to examine and debunk this hyperinflation myth. He instead employs a sound conceptual understanding and common sense in exploring the viewpoints of dollar-holding global actors. His research points to runaway inflation as being exceedingly unlikely as a result of the (unavoidable) massive Federal Reserve creation of new money. (He does not use the "inflation will be offset by deflation argument." Actually, the idea that "more money chasing the same amount of goods creates price inflation" is inherently flawed, and only true under certain conditions.) Demonstrated in detail in the book are why several key underpinnings of the gold bugs theory of mass destruction of the US economy are only myths. He specifically debunk the notions that: (1) a largely consumer-driven economy must be tenuous; (2) a large dollar decline would become a free fall rather than meet resistance; (3) money supply increases must eventually create corresponding price inflation; and (4) an exporting base is somehow required for American prosperity, among others. Author quote: "Several years from now [May 2009], Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, James Turk and other adamant 'hyperinflationists' will be scratching their heads wondering what went wrong with their certain prediction of rampant inflation. The truth is that there will be no extraordinary price inflation in the United States. The dollar will suffer no massive decline. Those pundits who insist the dollar is doomed (due to massive creation of money by the Fed) fail to grasp the true, more complex relationship between the money supply and price levels. My book is unique in uncovering the conditions in which money creation does cause higher prices. Fortunately, those conditions do not exist in the US economy.
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The author forgoes the usual macroeconomic theories, graphs and charts to examine and debunk this hyperinflation myth. He instead employs a sound conceptual understanding and common sense in exploring the viewpoints of dollar-holding global actors. His research points to runaway inflation as being exceedingly unlikely as a result of the (unavoidable) massive Federal Reserve creation of new money. (He does not use the "inflation will be offset by deflation argument." Actually, the idea that "more money chasing the same amount of goods creates price inflation" is inherently flawed, and only true under certain conditions.)
Demonstrated in detail in the book are why several key underpinnings of the gold bugs theory of mass destruction of the US economy are only myths. He specifically debunk the notions that: (1) a largely consumer-driven economy must be tenuous; (2) a large dollar decline would become a free fall rather than meet resistance; (3) money supply increases must eventually create corresponding price inflation; and (4) an exporting base is somehow required for American prosperity, among others.
Author quote: "Several years from now [May 2009], Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, James Turk and other adamant 'hyperinflationists' will be scratching their heads wondering what went wrong with their certain prediction of rampant inflation. The truth is that there will be no extraordinary price inflation in the United States. The dollar will suffer no massive decline. Those pundits who insist the dollar is doomed (due to massive creation of money by the Fed) fail to grasp the true, more complex relationship between the money supply and price levels. My book is unique in uncovering the conditions in which money creation does cause higher prices. Fortunately, those conditions do not exist in the US economy.