Scott Teresi

The Housing Problem: What Inning is It?

300mph and gordon, if you look at John Hussman's returns since the fund's inception in 2000, the picture looks much better. Do you know of another fund that uses hedging to time the market that has been able to do better over the last eight years, with similar risk (bond-like risk)? Hussman's fund returned 10.9%. This fund may have a long-term place in a sort of "lazy portfolio," in place of part of a bond allocation.

Leverage Wipes Out Carlyle Capital: Implications are Ominous

Not sure how to post a link here, but here's the URL without the HTTP at the beginning:

video.google.com/video...

Leverage Wipes Out Carlyle Capital: Implications are Ominous

Can't say this is very disappointing. From what I understand, Carlyle was a corrupt war profiteer, encouraged by the Bush administration. Its no-bid contracts and enormously wasteful spending during the war directly benefited George H. W. Bush (an investor and advisor to Carlyle). The best info I can find on this is a video:

video.google.com/video...

(ignore the first two minutes, in a foreign language)

Scott

Timing the Market With the 200 DMAs

How about some actual figures showing the risk level and annual return you would get from following this trading strategy? Technical analysis is often frustrating without any hard data to back up what people are saying, but this particular system is so simple you should be able to provide data that it works before you decided to use it!

As Nasdaq Approaches 20% Decline, An Historic Look at Past Bears

It looks like, historically speaking, once the NASDAQ declined 20%, it continued for at least another 8%, except on two of the 13 occasions. Also, the median decline was 36%.

Before drawing any more conclusions, it might be nice to see a list of the NASDAQ declines that didn't quite reach 20%--similar to the current decline (say, how often has the NASDAQ declined less than 20% but more than 15%?). Then it would be easier to judge how often a large decline (15%+) turns into a bear market decline (20%).

Hold China Without Getting Burned

Why not recommend Oberweis China (OBCHX)? It seems to have slightly less risk than the mutual funds and ETF's listed.

CERA Reports: Peak Oil Theory Based on Faulty Analysis

Whether or not this graph is optimistic on production (Peak Oil advocates like Campbell seem to be pessimistic; oil companies tend to be quite optimistic), what may be left out of this graph is demand. If demand is increasing much faster than the upward slope of supply, then we may be dealing with many of the effects of nearing "peak oil" (scarcity, high prices) sooner than the graph would communicate.