User 305589

Oil Price Lower on Inventory Numbers, But It Can't Go Much Lower

now, that fossile fuel is still around after so many years and well managed companies make tons of money with it. technology, on the other hand, is extremely disruptive. barring intc, ibm,csco and msft hardly any technology company survives for really long. and many never make any money over their entire life. just look at amzn, certainly one of the better ones, which still has not earned a dime in corporate profits if you add it all up since 1994,
I'd say, more money has been lost in 'technology stocks' than in ANY OTHER market sector. go figure.


On Jan 15 07:20 AM Ishortyou wrote:

> Forget about fossile fuel jump into other technologies.

Crude Reality: How Long Can Oil Stay Down?

good article (even though i do not fully agree with some of the premises and some of the conclusions) and very refreshing and thought-provoking discussion. thanks to all.

60 Minutes on Oil: Did Anyone Verify Anything?

the latest sentence should read:
It's called the short term price inelasticity of oil and anyone trying to get a grasp of the oil markets should google a bit and read about it. absolutely recommended reading: W. Brook's paper on the subject!


On Jan 13 06:13 AM User 305589 wrote:

> all the guys claimign that oil is/was too expensive at $40 or 50/bl
> or above certainly have never ever talked to anyone working on the
> ground in the oil business. except for the middle eastern countries,
> there is NOT ONE significant producer in the world which can replace
> a pumped barrel of oil for less than 60-70$, and many need at least
> 80-90$ for finding, pumping, and delivering a fresh barrel of oil.
> That oil is selling at the current cheap levels has two major reasons:
> a sudden supply glut caused by massive liquidation by hedgefundsand
> all sorts of speculators and financial oil investors (e.g. even pension
> funds) combined with demand destruction in the wake of the unfolding
> global recession,. second: a lot of governments (Iran, Russia, Venezuela,
> Mexico Saudi Arabia etc.) need every single dollar they can get from
> their oil exports. hence, they do what no reasonable capitalist owner
> would do: they sell oil even way below replacement costs! Reason:
> very simple: they need the money NOW to stay in power - so they do
> not bother about the depleted reserves and the investment-strapped
> outdated oil industries their countries will inherit a decade or
> two later. It's called the short ter, price inelasticity of oil and
> anyone trying to get a grasp of the oil markets should google a bit
> and read about it. absolutely recommended reading: W. Brook's paper
> on the subject!

60 Minutes on Oil: Did Anyone Verify Anything?

all the guys claimign that oil is/was too expensive at $40 or 50/bl or above certainly have never ever talked to anyone working on the ground in the oil business. except for the middle eastern countries, there is NOT ONE significant producer in the world which can replace a pumped barrel of oil for less than 60-70$, and many need at least 80-90$ for finding, pumping, and delivering a fresh barrel of oil. That oil is selling at the current cheap levels has two major reasons: a sudden supply glut caused by massive liquidation by hedgefundsand all sorts of speculators and financial oil investors (e.g. even pension funds) combined with demand destruction in the wake of the unfolding global recession,. second: a lot of governments (Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Mexico Saudi Arabia etc.) need every single dollar they can get from their oil exports. hence, they do what no reasonable capitalist owner would do: they sell oil even way below replacement costs! Reason: very simple: they need the money NOW to stay in power - so they do not bother about the depleted reserves and the investment-strapped outdated oil industries their countries will inherit a decade or two later. It's called the short ter, price inelasticity of oil and anyone trying to get a grasp of the oil markets should google a bit and read about it. absolutely recommended reading: W. Brook's paper on the subject!

Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and Boone Pickens - Bullish on Oil

@ Michael66: your 10 points don't hold any water and have been thoroughly rebutted, so no need for me to do it again.
However, you will soon find out that despite the strong deflationary forces currently at work the world will look back at 2008-2009-(2010?) as the LAST period of really cheap oil. Smart major producers will get out and buy cheap oil resorces and assets in politically secure places at bargain prices over the coming months and anyone following them will do very very well over the next 10-20 years.
oil will be replaced as source of energy , but only gradually and over a long period of time. high prices are the ONLY real cure for high prices in a market driven economy. my hope is that obama! will direct vast parts of his keynesian infrastructure spending towards cutting the dependence on oil and no, nuclear can't and won't do it for any extended period of time and is the most dangerous technology ever developed - right next to genetic manipulations.

Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and Boone Pickens - Bullish on Oil

the longterm demand-supply picture hasn't change, in fact, the trend will only accelerate with new oil projects as well as alternat. energy projects cancelled or delayed. whether the fundamentals will play out 2, 3 or 5 years from now, i do not know, nor does anyone else. but who cares anyway? buy a stock like cop or any other well-run, resource rich and profitable-at-$40-oil-... enjopy the dividends, maybe sell soem covered calls against the common and sit back and wait for the inevitable run up.so many people missed the first oil bull from 2003-2007 - yet the same people think that while oil stocks were a screaming buy in 2003 (in hindsight) they cannot get themselves to pull the trigger this time. guess what? 10 years from now they will again regret how they missed the oil bull.
go against the crowd, be patient and do not use leverage or exotic stuff like oil futures, uso or the likes