sleepless_on_wall_street's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/305657/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/166928-housing-is-moving-towards-disaster?source=feed#comment-720084 720084 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:18:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/31774-pay-to-play?source=feed#comment-720077 720077 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:11:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/31141-100-000-homes-worthless?source=feed#comment-711709 711709 Sat, 10 Oct 2009 12:21:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/64337-myhappytrading-com/20645-speculator-money-still-pervades-shipping-stocks?source=feed#comment-615861 615861
I think you are being too critical of the use of technical tools. For those like me, who invest primarily on fundamental analysis of individual businesses and economic outlook, I use those tools to decide what I want to own and what I am ready to sell. I use technical tools to help me decide WHEN to buy or sell. I find this process has often helped me to get into positions that are ready to move in my favor. It makes it easier to establish stop loss protection that does not get me quickly stopped out with a double digit (percentage) loss.]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 07:36:40 -0400
I think you are being too critical of the use of technical tools. For those like me, who invest primarily on fundamental analysis of individual businesses and economic outlook, I use those tools to decide what I want to own and what I am ready to sell. I use technical tools to help me decide WHEN to buy or sell. I find this process has often helped me to get into positions that are ready to move in my favor. It makes it easier to establish stop loss protection that does not get me quickly stopped out with a double digit (percentage) loss.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151188-the-state-of-the-construction-sector?source=feed#comment-602265 602265 Sat, 25 Jul 2009 23:27:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150458-a-tale-of-two-banking-worlds?source=feed#comment-598911 598911
Anybody want to enlighten me?]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 23:05:47 -0400
Anybody want to enlighten me?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149648-why-isn-t-the-dollar-falling?source=feed#comment-594217 594217 Sun, 19 Jul 2009 17:30:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148663-goldman-sachs-not-so-confident-after-all?source=feed#comment-590439 590439 Thu, 16 Jul 2009 10:42:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/12813-no-one-saw-this-coming?source=feed#comment-583452 583452 Sat, 11 Jul 2009 10:06:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147807-are-financiers-overpaid?source=feed#comment-580675 580675
Thanks for reporting on this. ]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 11:33:11 -0400
Thanks for reporting on this. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147068-true-unemployment-numbers?source=feed#comment-575478 575478 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:06:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145716-florida-home-sales-increase-for-the-9th-straight-month?source=feed#comment-566131 566131 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 17:36:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/8285-more-doom-and-gloom-from-overseas?source=feed#comment-547023 547023 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:56:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136615-animal-spirits-by-shiller-and-akerlof-questioning-economic-motives?source=feed#comment-496599 496599
Excellent review. I have two comments to add.

1. The motives you describe are "confidence, fairness, corruption and bad faith, money illusion, and stories". Governments and markets are both composed of people and therefore both have motives, as well as animal spirits. Sometimes government is in conflict with market participants and sometimes reinforcing. The reinforcement can be, at times, in unintended ways. Your review suggests that the authors have not developed this idea completely. (See the final paragraph of your review.)

2. You wrote: "Furthermore, the models that we use are relatively adequate and not absolutely adequate. That is, the models we use need to be logically consistent and be able to predict at least as well as any other logically consistent model. By definition, irrational behavior can produce contradictory predictions and, hence, are not logically consistent."

I think you should have mentioned the possibility of false premises based on modelling to historical data. The ability to predict the future based on the past is fraught with peril. How can we know if models are "logically consistent and ... able to predict at least as well as any other logically consistent model?" The future has not happened yet. Models can not be overly depended on to predict the future, but, in reality, only best be used to understand how out of sample situations differ from the in sample model data. Models are only be evaluated for logical consistency when looking at what has already happened. When making projections about the future, they fall in the category of educated guesses.


]]> Sat, 09 May 2009 09:12:53 -0400
Excellent review. I have two comments to add.

1. The motives you describe are "confidence, fairness, corruption and bad faith, money illusion, and stories". Governments and markets are both composed of people and therefore both have motives, as well as animal spirits. Sometimes government is in conflict with market participants and sometimes reinforcing. The reinforcement can be, at times, in unintended ways. Your review suggests that the authors have not developed this idea completely. (See the final paragraph of your review.)

2. You wrote: "Furthermore, the models that we use are relatively adequate and not absolutely adequate. That is, the models we use need to be logically consistent and be able to predict at least as well as any other logically consistent model. By definition, irrational behavior can produce contradictory predictions and, hence, are not logically consistent."

I think you should have mentioned the possibility of false premises based on modelling to historical data. The ability to predict the future based on the past is fraught with peril. How can we know if models are "logically consistent and ... able to predict at least as well as any other logically consistent model?" The future has not happened yet. Models can not be overly depended on to predict the future, but, in reality, only best be used to understand how out of sample situations differ from the in sample model data. Models are only be evaluated for logical consistency when looking at what has already happened. When making projections about the future, they fall in the category of educated guesses.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134826-can-the-banks-work-it-out?source=feed#comment-487472 487472
There seems to be a vocal group advocating for some structural changes in the financial system. What are some of the change options? This is something for which I would like to see some specific options discussed.]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 11:52:12 -0400
There seems to be a vocal group advocating for some structural changes in the financial system. What are some of the change options? This is something for which I would like to see some specific options discussed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133556-pierre-bourdieu-tim-geithner-and-cultural-capital?source=feed#comment-481734 481734
Very well stated.

This was an excellent article and a profound comment stream. Thanks.]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 18:35:01 -0400
Very well stated.

This was an excellent article and a profound comment stream. Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127480-live-discussion-treasury-s-bank-recovery-plan?source=feed#comment-443345 443345
I think your general train of thought is on the right track, but you should rework the back of your envelope with new numbers.]]> Sat, 28 Mar 2009 10:05:35 -0400
I think your general train of thought is on the right track, but you should rework the back of your envelope with new numbers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127285-li-ion-batteries-and-how-cheap-beat-cool-in-the-chevy-volt?source=feed#comment-436265 436265 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 07:42:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127129-the-toxic-assets-plan-yes-it-s-a-subsidy?source=feed#comment-435173 435173
Now the problem we have allowed to develop has the additional problem that the roots of many trees are intertwined so that removing any one tree risks damaging the roots and killing many more. Thus, some trees, that might otherwise be healthy, will need special care when the diseased trees are removed.

I repeat, the problem is that we seem to be trying to save all the trees, even the diseaseed ones that should be removed. Special care should be only for the collateral damage. ]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 10:09:55 -0400
Now the problem we have allowed to develop has the additional problem that the roots of many trees are intertwined so that removing any one tree risks damaging the roots and killing many more. Thus, some trees, that might otherwise be healthy, will need special care when the diseased trees are removed.

I repeat, the problem is that we seem to be trying to save all the trees, even the diseaseed ones that should be removed. Special care should be only for the collateral damage. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126782-fed-s-bond-buy-signals-crisis?source=feed#comment-432159 432159 Thu, 19 Mar 2009 09:50:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125951-it-s-a-winter-warming-spell-but-more-snow-ahead-for-markets?source=feed#comment-425357 425357
Maybe its because Friday evening is not a big reading time on SA, but I was surprised not to find more comments for such a good article. At least the comments that have been made are thoughtful and informed.

I would add one little sidebar to your demographic reason (#12). I think that retirees are (or at least should be) very careful with bonds as well as stocks. Corporate bonds (AAA) may be a little better than long-term treasuries, but when a steepening yield curve combines with rising short-term rates, bond investors had better be alert. Municiples may be fraught with risk as well. Short-term tresuries and TIPS should be overweighted.

Just my little addition to your fine work.]]> Sat, 14 Mar 2009 00:40:24 -0400
Maybe its because Friday evening is not a big reading time on SA, but I was surprised not to find more comments for such a good article. At least the comments that have been made are thoughtful and informed.

I would add one little sidebar to your demographic reason (#12). I think that retirees are (or at least should be) very careful with bonds as well as stocks. Corporate bonds (AAA) may be a little better than long-term treasuries, but when a steepening yield curve combines with rising short-term rates, bond investors had better be alert. Municiples may be fraught with risk as well. Short-term tresuries and TIPS should be overweighted.

Just my little addition to your fine work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124663-two-ways-we-could-claw-back?source=feed#comment-418357 418357 Sun, 08 Mar 2009 16:36:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124625-vix-suggests-changes-in-selling-behavior?source=feed#comment-416883 416883 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 23:27:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124317-investing-strategies-with-the-baltic-dry-index?source=feed#comment-414231 414231 Thu, 05 Mar 2009 10:53:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124297-a-history-of-market-violence?source=feed#comment-414148 414148
I have been thinking about the differences between 1928-1931 and 2006-09. You have been very thorough in suggesting some of the differences. This could be worth a lot more discussion.

For example, had Roosevelt been elected two years earlier and the New Deal was started in 1931 instead of 1933, would the depression have been shortened or made worse? I don't know the answer, but I'd sure like to hear a discussion from more knowledgable people. (Or even from more opinionated people.)

Again, Chris, thanks for opening a subject I have been wondering about. Your comment definitely adds to the value of this good article. ]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 10:20:03 -0500
I have been thinking about the differences between 1928-1931 and 2006-09. You have been very thorough in suggesting some of the differences. This could be worth a lot more discussion.

For example, had Roosevelt been elected two years earlier and the New Deal was started in 1931 instead of 1933, would the depression have been shortened or made worse? I don't know the answer, but I'd sure like to hear a discussion from more knowledgable people. (Or even from more opinionated people.)

Again, Chris, thanks for opening a subject I have been wondering about. Your comment definitely adds to the value of this good article. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123088-the-benefits-of-this-recession?source=feed#comment-411648 411648
Thanks for a very thorough description of the complexity that my metaphor attempted to invoke. I could never have given such a precise description of the tug of war between treating the disease and destroying the patient.

I hope that readers will take the time to read your comment carefully. ]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:08:07 -0500
Thanks for a very thorough description of the complexity that my metaphor attempted to invoke. I could never have given such a precise description of the tug of war between treating the disease and destroying the patient.

I hope that readers will take the time to read your comment carefully. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123049-how-innovation-sustains-prosperity?source=feed#comment-407732 407732
You touched on a complex subject when you wrote:

"One aspect that is overlooked is population. The world has too many people who need something constructive to do, nowhere to go to do it, and who don't have the skills, motivation or invention to do it with. At the rate some countries have been reproducing, abject poverty must surely be everywhere on an afterburner trajectory to the moon."

You are talking about the under developed parts of the world, but we also have a problem in the developed parts of the world. There we have developed too much production. This over capacity provides goods and services that actually go to waste. Since our productive capacity is too great, some of it necessarily goes idle and unemployment increases. Demand decreases as a result and the over capacity increases further.

So we not only have a problem because some parts of the world do not have the productive capacity to adequately support their populace at any level but abject subsistence level poverty. We also have a problem because other parts of the world do not consume what they have the capacity to produce.

Now, I can just hear someone say: Sleepless can go take a nap - the solution is simple: just improve distribution so that everyone gets what they need. But that would not solve the problem I see.

The problem is that we have too many people who have nothing to do. Yes, the productive capacity in the world is sufficient to support a comfortable basic life sustenance for everyone. But man does not live by bread alone.

Until there is sufficient innovation and education throughout the world so that all mankind can find fulfillment in occupation in some meaningful way, this problem will persist. We will have idle young men (and a few women) who, through frustration and boredom, turn to crime and terrorism. We will have older men (and a few women) who have nothing better to do than to train the younger ones in the ways of crime and terror. We will have legions who spend their idle time blaming everyone else but themselves because they have nothing useful to do.

flipspiceland, your comment has sparked a huge intellectual fire in my brain. We have the "idle rich" and the "idle poor". Both are too large in number, but the problems in the world are arising more and more from the idle "everyone else".

I think there may be readers on SA who would be able to expand on these thoughts, and probably express them better. Unfortunately, this is so far down a long comment stream that few will probably read it.

]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 09:46:48 -0500
You touched on a complex subject when you wrote:

"One aspect that is overlooked is population. The world has too many people who need something constructive to do, nowhere to go to do it, and who don't have the skills, motivation or invention to do it with. At the rate some countries have been reproducing, abject poverty must surely be everywhere on an afterburner trajectory to the moon."

You are talking about the under developed parts of the world, but we also have a problem in the developed parts of the world. There we have developed too much production. This over capacity provides goods and services that actually go to waste. Since our productive capacity is too great, some of it necessarily goes idle and unemployment increases. Demand decreases as a result and the over capacity increases further.

So we not only have a problem because some parts of the world do not have the productive capacity to adequately support their populace at any level but abject subsistence level poverty. We also have a problem because other parts of the world do not consume what they have the capacity to produce.

Now, I can just hear someone say: Sleepless can go take a nap - the solution is simple: just improve distribution so that everyone gets what they need. But that would not solve the problem I see.

The problem is that we have too many people who have nothing to do. Yes, the productive capacity in the world is sufficient to support a comfortable basic life sustenance for everyone. But man does not live by bread alone.

Until there is sufficient innovation and education throughout the world so that all mankind can find fulfillment in occupation in some meaningful way, this problem will persist. We will have idle young men (and a few women) who, through frustration and boredom, turn to crime and terrorism. We will have older men (and a few women) who have nothing better to do than to train the younger ones in the ways of crime and terror. We will have legions who spend their idle time blaming everyone else but themselves because they have nothing useful to do.

flipspiceland, your comment has sparked a huge intellectual fire in my brain. We have the "idle rich" and the "idle poor". Both are too large in number, but the problems in the world are arising more and more from the idle "everyone else".

I think there may be readers on SA who would be able to expand on these thoughts, and probably express them better. Unfortunately, this is so far down a long comment stream that few will probably read it.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123049-how-innovation-sustains-prosperity?source=feed#comment-406970 406970 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 11:05:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122851-do-equities-want-to-rally?source=feed#comment-406960 406960
I also would like Jason Laurent's views on what he envisions with "sooner or later the market will offer the best entry points in a lifetime".

Does he envision a further steep market decline a la 1929 - 32? That would be the best entry point in two lifetimes, except for those over 100 who were old enough to invest in 1932.

Does he envision a soon to come market bottom followed by the second half recovery being predicted by the same people who one year ago were predicting the same thing for 2008? If these prognosticators are right this time, buying at a soon to come bottom would be one of the best entry points of the current generation (like 1974-75) but not really the best of a lifetime.

Maybe Jason has something else in mind. If you read this, Jason, please consider re-entering the discussion.

]]> Sat, 28 Feb 2009 10:48:24 -0500
I also would like Jason Laurent's views on what he envisions with "sooner or later the market will offer the best entry points in a lifetime".

Does he envision a further steep market decline a la 1929 - 32? That would be the best entry point in two lifetimes, except for those over 100 who were old enough to invest in 1932.

Does he envision a soon to come market bottom followed by the second half recovery being predicted by the same people who one year ago were predicting the same thing for 2008? If these prognosticators are right this time, buying at a soon to come bottom would be one of the best entry points of the current generation (like 1974-75) but not really the best of a lifetime.

Maybe Jason has something else in mind. If you read this, Jason, please consider re-entering the discussion.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123049-how-innovation-sustains-prosperity?source=feed#comment-406946 406946 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 10:34:49 -0500