sleepless_on_wall_street

It's a Winter Warming Spell - But More Snow Ahead for Markets

Richard Shaw:

Maybe its because Friday evening is not a big reading time on SA, but I was surprised not to find more comments for such a good article. At least the comments that have been made are thoughtful and informed.

I would add one little sidebar to your demographic reason (#12). I think that retirees are (or at least should be) very careful with bonds as well as stocks. Corporate bonds (AAA) may be a little better than long-term treasuries, but when a steepening yield curve combines with rising short-term rates, bond investors had better be alert. Municiples may be fraught with risk as well. Short-term tresuries and TIPS should be overweighted.

Just my little addition to your fine work.

A Bull Is Born, 2009

The author is paying too much attention to old saws and not enough to fundamentals. There are many months of overhanging issues to be overcome before we can call a bottom in stocks with any confidence When I say many, I don't even know how many. When I can say maybe six months more of negative GDP, falling earnings, increasing unemployment, falling housing prices, increasing debt default, etc, I will be looking for a bottom. I don't believe any of these will bottom within six months so I don't expect any anticipation by the stock market can last.

One area he is right on is treasuries. They are in a bubble. But bubbles can go on longer than those shorting them can stand to see their money being ripped away. I believe the author is right in this regard, but I notice he didn't say anything about the timing. Eventually, he will be right, for sure.