sleepless_on_wall_street

The Obama Inauguration Rally Begins

Admittedly, short-term stocks look oversold. On a valuation basis, they look over valued. I find it interesting that the author did not hazard a guess about how long the Obama rally might last.

Looking at the details in the article, it seems that the only real rally identified is in oil stocks and precious metals and related stocks. That would be way too narrow a rally to get me excited.

Was Q4 2008 the Worst of It?

Greg Pinelli - - -

I agree with your observation but . . .

There is one scenario that would delay passage of the stimulus. It would require all of the following:

1. Obama keeps insisting on no earmarks.
2. Five hundred house members and 90 senators insist on presenting on the floor what would otherwise be earmarks. These presentations take 15 days (three weeks).
3. There are serious debates on 100 proposals, another 50 days (ten weeks).
4. There are minor debates on 400 proposals, another 40 days (eight weeks).
5. After 21 weeks the stimulus is brought to a vote. It fails both houses due to no votes from those with rejected proposals (formerly earmarks).
6. The entire process is repeated a couple of times, each time getting shorter. Final passage takes 40 weeks (occurs in October, only because the Dow has crashed - say to 2000).

This sequence is unlikely, but some degree of delay is possible because I believe Obama will have enough influence (even a veto, if necessary) to enforce the first item in the list.

$60 a Barrel Oil in 2009?

Fill all your gas tanks and wait.