GH

An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks

Geez. It is such a waste of time reading the vast majority of SeekingAlpha articles. There are about 3 really competent authors, and then hundreds who are rank amateurs who put maybe a week into reading some books and articles and think they know enough about a sector as huge as solar power to write an "in depth" article.

No more for me, thanks. Goodbye, SeekingAlpha.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

"Number of shares short" has no value for comparisons. How about showing short shares as a percentage of the float? And include STP, please!

Thanks!

Canadian Solar: The Next Solar Takeover Target?

"More importantly, both US presidential candidates are leaning towards renewable energies, especially solar and wind."

Absolutely false in the case of McCain. Do your homework, check his voting record when it mattered (close votes). He's in the pocket of Big Oil, just as Bush was.

If you invest in alternative energy, this is your biggest risk factor. Research deeply. Consider who will be put in cabinet positions, heads of agencies etc.

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

Jack,

Check out
nickgogerty.typepad.co...

I believe his work supports your thesis that solar is already at grid parity.

- GH

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

I just noticed you asked for specifics on the other companies I like.

ORA - solidly established interational leader in electricity generation from geothermal and recovered-heat sources. Dividend-paying. This is not a pre-profit company; it's much closer to what you write these articles about. Geothermal per-kw costs passed grid parity several years ago, IMO.

OPTT - best investment (IMHO) in the area of ocean-wave power generation. Well beyond the proof-of-concept stage; the technology is proven and they are deploying significant first-tier projects at this point, as well as continuing R&D to scale up to very large projects. These devices effectively tap into a similar energy stream as off-shore wind turbines but IMO this is ultimately a much lower-cost approach, since off-shore wind turbines are incredibly expensive and difficult to maintain. Also definitely better from environmental and NIMBY perspectives.

ENON - one of several I like in the area of lithium-ion batteries. The current state of the battery art is that lithium-ion are going to replace the nickel-metal-hydride batteries currently used by hybrid-electric cars, enabling plug-in hybrids and pure-electric cars. Moreover, the next step after that is these batteries may well become cost-efficient enough to provide the load-filling required by the addition to the grid of large-scale solar and wind generation. Another to watch for in this area would be an IPO by A123 Systems.

CREE - positioned to lead the inevitable transition to LED-based lighting, which with economies of scale I believe will have even cheaper lifetime costs than compact flourescent.

- GH

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

Jack,

I think your reference to Venture Capital investing shows we're actually in complete agreement about the potential for pre-profit companies. The idea of VC, of course, is to take manageable losses on most investments but be more than compensated by the huge gains on the winners.

Besides CPTC, I like a long list but to pick one from each energy-related sub-category that I follow, I like ORA, OPTT, ENON, and CREE.

CPTC is a somewhat odd story, in that they had a solid but temporarily struggling business selling next-generation power transmission lines - which are selling like hotcakes in China and should do fantastically well in the U.S. if we ever figure out how to finance upgrading our power grid. Basically you replace old high-tension lines with these new carbon-fiber-core ones, and you get much improved current-carrying capacity as well as lower losses... on the existing towers and rights-of-way. The lower losses are like increasing generating capacity without burning any more fuel.

The cables have been established as meeting U.S. industrial specs, etc., so, that should be a great business if they're just patient and keep finding places where their cable can prove itself... but then, as that process was proceeding, CPTC's management discovered DeWind at a fire-sale price... and bought it. Various merriment, including a brush with Chapter 11, ensued... but DeWind is a compelling story. Their turbine applies torque-converter technology to eliminate the most frequent cause of wind turbine failure (gearbox problems) - as well as a significant initial and ongoing maintenance cost (inverters). They've recently passed various third-party tests, and set up an insurance deal to calm the concerns of wind farm builders who would like to see a longer track record. As a student of engineering the advantages of their turbines are obvious to me, but of course those subtleties don't make much of an impression on people who finance wind farms.

Pure plays in transmission-line infrastructure improvement and wind-turbine production are extremely hard to find in the U.S. - and CPTC is both. I can't figure out whether CPTC's management are whackos or geniuses... but they're certainly interesting!

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

Jack,

I posted a response a month or so ago when you stated that there were no pure U.S. wind plays. The closest is CPTC, which had as its primary business carbon-fiber-based high-performance power transmission cables. They purchased DeWind (a wind-turbine manufacturer) some time ago at a fire-sale price.

No, they're not currently profitable... but neither was FSLR when I bought it in November 06. In my opinion your insistence on use of P-E based criteria, which forces you to exclude not-yet-profitable companies, will prevent you from tapping into the best parts of the growth curves in the alternative energy sector.

In other words: right sector, but inappropriate trading criteria.

Canadian Solar: Why Do the Best Solar Stocks Get the Least Coverage?

Nice job! Could you do a follow-up that makes the same comparison for the other second-tier solar panel makers (JASO, YGE, TSL, ENER, SOLF, ASTI, DSTI, AMAT, AKNS)? Thanks!

US Energy Bill: Solar Stocks Will Feel All the Heat

Buffettz has the only statement on this page (the author's article included) that has a solid basis in fact. Because of the on-again off-again history of the U.S.'s pathetic subsidies for oil alternatives, no one has invested serious money based on them for decades. The two main U.S. solars, SPWR and FSLR, have not relied significantly on anything provided by the U.S. government. (California, yes, a bit - but no one is talking about CA cutting back). The other important solar - STP - also does not rely on the U.S. market.

Short away, if you want: it will be fun watching you try to cover as the U.S. economy goes into recession, and the only U.S. companies continuing to grow are those - like FSLR and SPWR - that are in a growing sector and selling primarily overseas.

Comparison of Chinese Polysilicon Based Solar Module Manufacturers

"moot point" depends on whether you believe First Solar's CFO - who can go to jail if he misinforms us - or a whacko (IMO) blogger, who won't even get his wrist slapped.

In any case, a solar panel producer's key raw material is hardly moot. If CIGS can be scaled up to give efficiencies comparable to Si, but costs below CdTe, all the Si-based companies, as well as FSLR, will be left behind. There are literally billions of VC dollars chasing CIGS. However, there have been hundreds of millions spent already over the last 5+ years without success. Eventually nano-tech will produce a cheap solution, but that may be more than a decade away. In the meantime, First Solar is well ahead of the rest of this nascent industry.