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IEA's Oil Market Outlook: Off the Mark

"I'd like to see the indexers and those circumventing current trading rules removed by the CFTC."

As would many others. Two problems:
1) The CFTC is corrupt, starting at the head placed there by Bush the Oil Pusher.
2) The CFTC is disabled, due to the Enron Loophole and other problems introduced by corrupted legislators like Phil Gramm in 2000-2001 and being actively preserved today - and prevented from being exposed via debate by Republican filibusters.

On Oil and Its Manipulation

Andrew,

GREAT job with this article! Please stay on this topic and keep digging and keep posting. Make sure you see all the Senate Commerce Committee hearings from June; the video is at the cspan web site.

Some things you can dig into:
- Intentional conflation by Big Oil sycophants of the terms "speculation" and "manipulation", to mislead listeners about what's being stated and discussed by experts
- Republican use of filibusters to prevent debate (on CFTC-related legislation) which would clarify the manipulation issue and expose the current crop of Phil Gramm wannabes
- Conflation of sweet crude (for which demand is outstripping supply) with sour crude (of which supply is abundant) by Saudi Arabians and Libyans, to hide their inability to increase supply of sweet crude
- Ignorant conflation of sweet vs. sour crude by mainstream media (including online sources like MarketWatch), exacerbating misunderstandings of Saudi and Libyan statements
- Israeli cabinet members helping Goldman-Sachs and Morgan Stanley further drive up WTI oil futures by hyping mideast tensions, thereby manipulating more retail investors and fund managers into buying more USO, XLE, etc.

Adjusted for Income & Fuel Efficiency Increases, Gas Today is Almost 50% Below Record High

This article should be linked into Wikipedia as an example of "lying with statistics":
1) Why does the "Average MPG" chart cut off at 2005? Hint: SUV sales peaked in 2006.
2) Why consider improvements in Average MPG, unless you also consider increases in average miles driven per year?

TTM Speculative Activity Actually Decreased on the NYMEX

jjason,

You're exactly right.

Be aware that speculation on NYMEX has moved to the unregulated "London" ICE (actually run by a USA company and using terminals here in the USA) and greatly expanded. Those who put out "speculation is down" stories are at best being misled.

Kling's Oil Speculation Question

Beware. There are two kinds of oil. There is currently an excess of sour crude, and a shortage of sweet crude. This is what allows Libya and Saudi Arabia to say there is an abundance of supply and that the price is higher than it should be, yet the price to continue higher. The Iranian tankers are full of sour crude.

This conflation of the two kinds of crude is being purposely planted by various players - the same ones who are hiding their manipulation behind the word "speculation". This is the latest favorite style of lying: use an ambiguous word. Various media that should know better are happily playing along to attract eyeballs.

How Big a Contribution Comes from Oil Speculation?

"So-called speculative net long positions fell to 25,867 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week ended May 27 from a record 127,491 on July 31, according to a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission report on May 30.""

That trading moved from the NYMEX to the ICE to dodge regulation. Bush's head of the CFTC is in on this con, which was originally set up as Enron's loophole by Phil Gramm (McCain's chief economic advisor) and his wife. I believe Senate Commerce Committee testimony before I believe anything on SeekingAlpha (although Mr. Hamilton seems to have an excellent understanding in my humble opinion).

Oil Swings Go Beyond Fundamentals

Myth:

"Unless, somebody in the Government rationally and logically looks at these issues, this trend is going to stay bullish."

The Senate Commerce Committee heard all about it last Tuesday 3-Jun (video may still be on C-Span's web site). A couple days ago a Republican filibuster prevented debate on a bill that would have returned to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission the power to regulate oil market, which was removed from it by Phil Gramm (creating the "Enron Loophole") in 2001.

Those represented in the Senate by Republicans need to write their reps a letter or send an email thanking them for their nice high gas prices.

A Modest Proposal for Rising Oil Prices

Al, Dallas, you don't get it. It's not the producers, it's the investment banks. Watch Tuesday's Senate Commerce Committe hearings on C-Span.

And you don't understand the futures markets. There's never a need to deliver or take delivery; you simply sell your contracts. As long as the price keeps going up, long positions will continue to generate profits.

Another Fed-Induced Bubble?

The CFTC's investigation is window dressing - a con. It is run by Bush appointees who are protecting Big Oil.

The FTC is the only body left with the power to uncover the oil price manipulation being committed by the investment banks - chiefly G-S, but also M-S and others. Uncover, but only the CFTC has the potential to be given the authority to stop it - and the recent Farm Bill didn't do that, it needs its old powers back that were stripped by Phil Gramm's "Enron Loophole" in 2000.

Gold and Oil Price Limits

Zenalgorithm: You apparently don't understand the difference between atoms and their components (quarks such as protons, neutrons, and electrons). Nanotechnology can build structures from individual atoms, but it cannot change an atom of one element into an atom of another element.

Nuclear fission and fusion can do that... but you don't want to mess with those.

An Energy Policy that Makes Cents (and Sense)

I'm with you philosophically, but you have a lot of obvious misperceptions here.

- Just taking coal out of the ground ruins the environment; no need to burn it.
- Just like coal, nuclear doesn't make sense unless you ignore the pollution it generates and the lost real estate and water. In 50 years of trying the waste issue hasn't been solved; stop throwing money at lost causes.
- Additional coastal exploration for fossil fuels damages a key ecosystem from which we're getting food.

I could go on. My only point is: go back to the books, you have a lot more to learn.