GH

An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks

Geez. It is such a waste of time reading the vast majority of SeekingAlpha articles. There are about 3 really competent authors, and then hundreds who are rank amateurs who put maybe a week into reading some books and articles and think they know enough about a sector as huge as solar power to write an "in depth" article.

No more for me, thanks. Goodbye, SeekingAlpha.

Expecting Strong Earnings Upside from First Solar and Solarfun Power

"US presidential candidates Barack Obama and John Mccain's strongly support solar and wind energy,"

This is half true. Obama strongly supports alternatives to fossil fuels. However, McCain has never stated specific support for either solar or wind. Since he would like to retain his long-standing massive backing from Big Oil, he is unlikely to.

SCE Contracts Push First Solar Ahead

Wayfarer,

Assuming SCE has sufficient space for either one, the solar efficiency is immaterial to their decision; what matters is dollars per watt.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

"Number of shares short" has no value for comparisons. How about showing short shares as a percentage of the float? And include STP, please!

Thanks!

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

When did "Mark Anthony" start writing your columns for you? Most of what you said about First Solar is false.

Will LDK's New Company Create Competition for First Solar?

Mark,

Why do you think "competition is going to be brutal" ? In "commodity" industries, tiny advantages are the only differences and competition is fierce. However, in the solar power business, technological differences create major differences in product characteristics, and will allow many different players to prosper for the forseeable future.

OatLeaksBeans, I think your guess is correct. China is a sufficient customer to keep *any* business busy, never mind a clean energy business! And China has huge expanses of undeveloped high-insolation land: perfect for giant solar photovoltaic arrays.

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

Jack,

Check out
nickgogerty.typepad.co...

I believe his work supports your thesis that solar is already at grid parity.

- GH

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

I just noticed you asked for specifics on the other companies I like.

ORA - solidly established interational leader in electricity generation from geothermal and recovered-heat sources. Dividend-paying. This is not a pre-profit company; it's much closer to what you write these articles about. Geothermal per-kw costs passed grid parity several years ago, IMO.

OPTT - best investment (IMHO) in the area of ocean-wave power generation. Well beyond the proof-of-concept stage; the technology is proven and they are deploying significant first-tier projects at this point, as well as continuing R&D to scale up to very large projects. These devices effectively tap into a similar energy stream as off-shore wind turbines but IMO this is ultimately a much lower-cost approach, since off-shore wind turbines are incredibly expensive and difficult to maintain. Also definitely better from environmental and NIMBY perspectives.

ENON - one of several I like in the area of lithium-ion batteries. The current state of the battery art is that lithium-ion are going to replace the nickel-metal-hydride batteries currently used by hybrid-electric cars, enabling plug-in hybrids and pure-electric cars. Moreover, the next step after that is these batteries may well become cost-efficient enough to provide the load-filling required by the addition to the grid of large-scale solar and wind generation. Another to watch for in this area would be an IPO by A123 Systems.

CREE - positioned to lead the inevitable transition to LED-based lighting, which with economies of scale I believe will have even cheaper lifetime costs than compact flourescent.

- GH

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

Jack,

I think your reference to Venture Capital investing shows we're actually in complete agreement about the potential for pre-profit companies. The idea of VC, of course, is to take manageable losses on most investments but be more than compensated by the huge gains on the winners.

Besides CPTC, I like a long list but to pick one from each energy-related sub-category that I follow, I like ORA, OPTT, ENON, and CREE.

CPTC is a somewhat odd story, in that they had a solid but temporarily struggling business selling next-generation power transmission lines - which are selling like hotcakes in China and should do fantastically well in the U.S. if we ever figure out how to finance upgrading our power grid. Basically you replace old high-tension lines with these new carbon-fiber-core ones, and you get much improved current-carrying capacity as well as lower losses... on the existing towers and rights-of-way. The lower losses are like increasing generating capacity without burning any more fuel.

The cables have been established as meeting U.S. industrial specs, etc., so, that should be a great business if they're just patient and keep finding places where their cable can prove itself... but then, as that process was proceeding, CPTC's management discovered DeWind at a fire-sale price... and bought it. Various merriment, including a brush with Chapter 11, ensued... but DeWind is a compelling story. Their turbine applies torque-converter technology to eliminate the most frequent cause of wind turbine failure (gearbox problems) - as well as a significant initial and ongoing maintenance cost (inverters). They've recently passed various third-party tests, and set up an insurance deal to calm the concerns of wind farm builders who would like to see a longer track record. As a student of engineering the advantages of their turbines are obvious to me, but of course those subtleties don't make much of an impression on people who finance wind farms.

Pure plays in transmission-line infrastructure improvement and wind-turbine production are extremely hard to find in the U.S. - and CPTC is both. I can't figure out whether CPTC's management are whackos or geniuses... but they're certainly interesting!

Major Corporate Shift to Solar Energy and LEDs

Petya,

You have some of your "facts" utterly wrong:

ANWR is far from barren. It is a wildlife preserve, filled with birds, fish, and animals of all descriptions.

3 mile Island *did* release radioactivity into the atmosphere. Not large amounts, but significant enough to measure downwind. Moreover, the failed generator has yet to be repaired or remediated, due I believe to the level of radioactivity within the containment vessel.

Bulbs,
The problem is not the lighting level; they're plenty bright enough for large-scale outdoor lighting! The problem is simply up-front cost; people are used to paying for lighting slowly, a little up front and the rest over the (short, inefficient) life of the bulb. Typical total expenditure for a 75-watt bulb and power to light it is on the order of $100 for the 2 years it lasts in typical residential usage. It can be replaced by an LED-based bulb that costs $50 and lasts 30 years... but so far few except accountants and CFOs can get their heads around "spending $50 for a light bulb".

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

Jack,

I posted a response a month or so ago when you stated that there were no pure U.S. wind plays. The closest is CPTC, which had as its primary business carbon-fiber-based high-performance power transmission cables. They purchased DeWind (a wind-turbine manufacturer) some time ago at a fire-sale price.

No, they're not currently profitable... but neither was FSLR when I bought it in November 06. In my opinion your insistence on use of P-E based criteria, which forces you to exclude not-yet-profitable companies, will prevent you from tapping into the best parts of the growth curves in the alternative energy sector.

In other words: right sector, but inappropriate trading criteria.

Contradictions in the Solar Market

Mr. Castellano,

Look at the end uses of amorphous silicon thin film technology. It's building-integrated. Over half of the cost of PV power generation is in installation. Building-integrated PV replaces an existing (roof installation) cost with a slightly higher one, rather than a large incremental cost to install PV panels above an existing roof.

Your numbers may be accurate but you're not applying them correctly; ie. you're comparing apples to applesauce ;-).

Suntech, SunPower, MEMC and First Solar: Four Solar Stocks Worth Investigating

By the way, a correction: NACEL's trading symbol is NCEN .

Suntech, SunPower, MEMC and First Solar: Four Solar Stocks Worth Investigating

Solar wind, thanks for the heads-up about NECN.

Himanshu, regarding other American wind pure plays, there is a near-pure play: CPTC, which owns DeWind turbine, now a CPTC subsidiary. CPTC also produces high-performance power transmission lines.

Greentech Media: Solar Sector Headed for a Shakeout

"O'Rourke forecast an industry shakeout -- starting with crystalline-silicon-ba... panels and spreading to thin films -- that could last two or three years. (agree 100%)".

Hello, have you given any thought to what will happen to *demand* when the cost of carbon-based grid electricity exceeds that of home-generated? Obviously not.