Mill Rat

What Are Leading Economic Indicators Telling Us?

The topic mentioned in the comment below ("coincident to lagging indicators ratio") could be an excellent subject for a future article. [...unless it was meant sarcastically] By chance, are you able to recommend any well-written articles on it? It sounds intriguing.


On Dec 17 06:44 PM bbro wrote:

> If you don't like the leading indicators...use the coincident to
> lagging indicators ratio it has a better track record and it has been going up for 8 months....

Economic Indicators: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

I apologize for the double-posting of my above comment.

Economic Indicators: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

I liked this artcle because the data was well-communicated.

Consequently, it allows us the opportunity to make our own judgements and draw our own conclusions.


Bryan

Economic Indicators: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

I liked this artcle because the data was well-communicated.

Consequently, it allows us the opportunity to make our own judgements and draw our own conclusions.

Bond and Stock Price Returns vs. Total Returns

You do an excellent job of "letting the data tell the story". I have learned a lot from your various articles during this past year or so. I wish that more of the Seeking Alpha contributors had your communication skills.

Thanks,
Bryan

AOL’s New Model: Fighting the Downward Trend

AOL's decline may accelerate if it's e-mail users are experiencing what I have recently been experiencing with AOL (as of Monday), which is.... I am no longer able to view my AOL e-mail via Windows Explorer. Although, I can easily "log in" to my own account, I am, nevertheless, unable to view my own e-mail list or the e-mail itself.

Consequently, those of you researching this IPO may want to "ask around" and research the extent to which this issue is affecting other AOL users.

Hefty Gasoline Supplies During Slack Demand Period Open Door to Call Sellers

Below is a link to an interesting Wall Street Journal story from 14 months ago (Sept 4th, 2008).

At the time of the article, the CFTC apparently felt the need to investigate whether "energy market players" were manipulating the oil inventory data which is reported to the EIA.

online.wsj.com/article...

Thoughts, anyone?

Crude Oil Inventories Show a Sharp Decline

Below is a link to an interesting Wall Street Journal story from 14 months ago (Sept 4th, 2008).

At the time of the article, the CFTC apparently felt the need to investigate whether "energy market players" were manipulating the oil inventory data which is reported to the EIA.

online.wsj.com/article...

Thoughts, anyone?

Derivatives: A Banking Time Bomb Waiting to Go Off

Yesterday, on Seeking Alpha, Reggie Middleton published a much more detailed analysis of this same topic (the topic of banks holding derivatives). It was titled: "The Next Step in the Bank Implosion Crisis."

seekingalpha.com/artic...

The Surge in Expectations

Thanks for this fresh analytical perspective. (It's a little different from the "same old" recycled commentaries that I so often see from other contributors.)

Bryan

The Credit-Wealth Cycle: Consumer Credit Outstanding, August 2009

I already found a critical typo in my comment. My correction is below in "all-CAPS". I had omitted the word "expired".

....natural consequence would have been for the lenders to shorten the length of their "lending" to make sure that their loans EXPIRED before the Year of Jubilee.

The Credit-Wealth Cycle: Consumer Credit Outstanding, August 2009

After seeing "derryl"'s reference to Steve Keen's suggestion for a debt Jubilee, I offer the following perspective:

Background:
Several months ago, while reading, for the first time, about the Kondratief cycle (which one might describe as a natural risk-tolerance and/or debt-tolerance cycle), I would see references to the Biblical "Year of Jubilee" (which occurred every 50 years). Consequently, I read its description in Leviticus and then also read several commentaries on it.

My conclusions:
- I think that God's real intention behind the "Year of Jubilee" (with respect to the debt forgiveness) was actually to persuade potential lenders to begin RESTRICTING their extensions of credit as the Year of Jubilee approached.
- Given that everyone in that society would have known, many years in advance, that "debt forgiveness" would be occurring in year "x", it seems that the natural consequence would have been for the lenders to shorten the length of their "lending" to make sure that their loans before the Year of Jubilee. (In fact, Leviticus may have explicitly said something to that effect. I can't remember right now.) Then, whatever debt forgiveness that actually occurred in the Jubilee Year would have been for those remaining debtors who were "late" on their payments.
- I do NOT think the Year of Jubilee was intended to allow irresponsible borrowing.

Comments welcome. Corrections encouraged.

Bryan

We're in a Pattern of Increasingly Longer Employment Recoveries

Without unemployment benefits, monetary velocity will plunge even faster and more deeply.

I suppose that the "Austrian School" economists would respond to that with: "Bring on the resulting deflation - the faster, the better."

Although I do find myself agreeing with some of the "Austrian School" economic theories, I also believe that society still needs to provide a modest safety net to those who have become unemployed through no fault of their own and are still willing to work.

John Thain Comes Clean

It looks like the Nomura link did not get attached properly.

www.math.ust.hk/~maykwok/courses/MAFS...

If the above does not go completely go through, and you only get the home page, click the following sequence of links, beginning at the home page:
"People"
"Faculty"
"Kwok, Yue-Keun"
"MAFS521"
"Nomura - CDOs - Squared-Demystified"
or you can 'search engine' the last item on this "chain" of links.

John Thain Comes Clean

Attached here are links to 2 in-depth articles ("white papers") about the behavior of CDO's-squared and their risks. One is from Nomura (published in 2005). One is from Fitch (published 2004).

www.math.ust.hk/~maykwok/courses/MAFS...

www.fitchratings.com/d...

One might be tempted to describe these "white papers" as a description of the mathematical output of "models". But, I'll let you judge for yourselves.