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We are a locally owned, independent fee, residential real estate appraisal and consulting firm specializing in single-family, condominium, cooperative and multi-family income property in Washington, DC. We offer residential appraisal products and consulting services for national mortgage... More
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Capital Market Appraisal
  • DC Home Price Seasonality Index (1980–2013)

    (click to enlarge)DC Home Price Seasonality Index (1980-2013)

    In this figure we have constructed a seasonality index by

    charting monthly home sale prices, as measured by the S&P/

    Case-Shiller Washington DC Home Price Index (DC Index1 ) -

    using data collected from 1980 to 2013. The graph expresses

    the data of each month as a percentage of the average of the

    year.

    In other words, if the average annual home price in a given

    year is 'X' this figure is saying that the average home price in

    February of that year was 2.78% below 'X' - while in September

    it was 2.01% above 'X' (on average). 'X' in our figure represents

    the average annual home price in Washington, DC from 1980

    to 2013 as measured by the DC Index.

    In some years the DC lndex will be up (in 2013 it was up

    8.12%, year over year) and in other years it will be down (yes

    unfortunately as we all know home prices can fluctuate in

    both directions) - however empirically, the average intra-year

    month to month fluctuation of home prices measured against

    the annual mean, takes the shape of the sine wave depicted

    above.

    The amplitudes are unique for any given year; last year for

    example the monthly low in February was 5.99% below the

    annual average, while the high in September was 3.43% above.

    Yet notice that the bottom and peak for the year was again

    in February and September, as it is with our 33-year average

    shown above (1980-2013). This will not always be the case,

    but on average it is - and that's what our figure is telling us.

    What we observe is an intuitive cyclical pattern where prices

    decline throughout winter/early spring, rise during late spring

    and summer, peak in the fall-then roll over into winter, to begin

    the cycle once again.

    I mean who really wants to go open-house hunting in 20-degree

    weather when you can do it during summer or fall right?

    www.capitalmarketappraisal.com/pdf/DC-Home-Price-Seasonality-Index.pdf

    www.capitalmarketappraisal.com/

    Aug 17 8:10 PM | Link | Comment!
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