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Westport: The Good, Bad, And Ugly
By and large, and with all respect, many of the above responses seem to reflect somebody's grandfather's brick-&-mortar buy&-hold strategy, with the stock price increase in steady, gradual increments until a respectable exit can be made when the stock is fully priced.
Sorry, folks, that is not going to happen with this stock.
The rule of this game is that there simply aren't any, and the plot is quite thick. We're dealing with an idea that is revolutionising combustion, finance, energy markets and that is essentially the hole in the dike between the way vehicule fuel is currently used and the future downstream.
This is doubtless not everyone's cup of tea - whether for small investors or Big Oil. Regarding this latter, it would be interesting (though impossible) to know how much of WPRT's short interest is actually held by adversaries of the NG evolution.
So how can one possibly expect any kind of linear, logical progression? With legions of shorts on the one hand, jealous manufacturers on the other, it's going to be a rocky road.
Fact remains, WPRT's patent portfolio is unrivaled. As for 'having its finger in too many pies', I think it's absolutely extraordinary that they should be involved in marine engines and locomotives. They virtually just have to 'cut and paste' the technology into these multi-billion dollar markets.
The stock price will not rise on anything resembling any kind of 'financial logic'. It will rise when suddenly, the Cummins 15L becomes sexy. Now, the market is aware of its existence, the users are jostling with the purchasing managers, budgets are being discussed. The goods are in the shop window but everyone is waiting for the first buyer to step up and strut the stuff on the highway. No one wants to be first, they can hardly believe that you will even be able to fuel the thing.
Just wait until freight managers see the 15L cruising down the highway with full load and full tanks and fully competitive, with a nice 'green' image to boot. Sexy!
Then, no one will want to be the last one on the dance floor.
The cash cow will be running full speed ahead on trucks and heavy equipment and - what do you know - they'll be able to do the same thing in marine and locomotives. Take a look at the profiles of some of the directors at WPRT. There are a few brilliant pedigrees in these industries.
Worthy of note was the recent involvemennt of GE Finance with Clean Energy. GE also produces some absolutely pharaonic gas engines. The synergy between financial and engine divisions of the world's largest company with CLNE & WPRT says a lot for the viability of all three of them.
Clearly, this is not a journey for the faint of heart, nor for a quick profit. There will however be huge profits. The idea is out of the laboratory. There is little real competition on the horizon. The merchandise is in the showrooms. The buyers are fidgeting, knowing that it costs too much to buy the engines and yet those who do not make the transition risk being tomorrow's losers.
Bottom line is, anything can happen. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see WPRT at 18 by the end of the month. Then again, 55 by February wouldn't surprise me, either. It all depends a lot more on just how sexy it becomes rather than on the logic of P/E ratios and the like.
Indeed, not for the faint of heart. Of course, revolutions are rarely led by the faint of heart.
Nov 4, 2013. 03:31 PM
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