auto44's Comments

The Case for Depression, Part 4: Dollar Collapse

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 23:01:59 -0500

inflation is to many dollars chasing to few goods

On Nov 25 05:40 PM user396040 wrote:

> The Great Depression was caused by deflation, not inflation. When
> there is inflation, people buy things like crazy because the price
> is going to go up tomorrow. The economy tends to get overheated -
> there is a tendency for employment to be high because workers don't
> realize that wage increases are illusory and therefore the real hourly
> wage declines encourage employers to use more and more less expensive
> labor as they can raise prices faster than wages increase. I am not
> advocating inflation and I feel that today it is about as serious
> a problem as large scale horse manure pollution due the the abandonment
> of automobiles and the resumption of horse drawn carriage transportation.
> But, even if inflation does recur (which I think is very, very unlikely
> in the near term) it would not create a depression

The Case for Depression, Part 4: Dollar Collapse

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 23:00:32 -0500

I hope you have a lot of money. They won't take you without it.

On Nov 25 10:42 AM Mr. Big wrote:

> Firstly, let's get one thing out of the way. Those unfunded liabilities
> are pretty much a write-off. $100 trillion dollars? Are you kidding
> me? Our government can barely afford the current $12 trillion debt
> load with the current workforce..... and over the next 30 to 40 years,
> our workforce will be dwindling.
>
> I don't think the general public appreciates, yet, the enormity of
> the situation. $100 trillion dollars is equivalent to over a quarter
> of a million dollars of debt for every man woman and child. For an
> average family of four, that is more than a million dollars of debt
> per household....present value!!! And for every year we run a deficit,
> we add an equal amount to the unfunded liabilities.
>
> Needless to say, a reduction in the standard and quality of living
> is an understatement. Bottom line is, our sick and elderly loved
> ones are going to die prematurely..... and that's simply unacceptable.
>
>
> The destruction in our standard of living will ultimately manifest
> itself in the form of significantly higher taxes and the addition
> of a multitude of user fees. At current debt levels (including the
> unfunded), you can consider this new reality to be permanent. This
> change will likely put the US at the top of the list of the highest
> taxed nations in the world. The sad part is, most of the current
> high-taxed nations have a decent health care system. We will be at
> the top of the list with a crippled health care system.
>
> Has anyone ever considered that there will be a mass exodus of our
> mosted talented and highly contributing pool of workers (and businesses)?
> This will be especially true if Obama continues to push his socialist
> agenda.
>
> I gotta say, Canada is starting to look mighty sweet right now...
> I don't care how bad their hockey teams are...

Is the Gold ETF Rally Here to Stay?

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:04:30 -0500

What proof do you have to the contrary besides the myth you have been repeating? Did you ever think that this myth may have been started by folks that lose profits selling, insuring, shipping, and storing gold? Just give it some thought.

On Nov 25 12:10 PM User 248461 wrote:

> holds more bullion than any other country ? Do you have audited and
> assayed proof of this ? Sure its not just paper and tungsten ?

Eliot Spitzer on How Geithner Was Fleeced by Wall Street

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:50:19 -0500

Not smart, but a great reader of teleprompters with other people's thoughts on them.

On Nov 25 06:34 PM Stan Sutfin wrote:

> Isn't it strainge that we never hear anything from Obama on this
> subject. Guess he isn't as smart as people thought he was. One thing
> is pretty certain--little Timmy will wind up getting a great job
> at GS. Wonder if he knows he is supposed to pay taxes on those bonuses.
> If he does know, wonder if he will pay the tax.

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 09:09:50 -0500

It's the coal lobby. STUPID. The rural electrification act was probably the best thing our gov't ever invested in to increase productivity and the standard of living at a time when all of our energy was domestically produced. Now it is time for the rural and urban gasification act

Australia Looks Great for the Long Term

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:15:11 -0500

Best bet in the worldas far as I can tell.

Whatever Happened to Those Ethanol Companies?

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:09:11 -0500

You better find out more about physics and science.
Where do you think most electricity comes from? Burning things!!!!!!!

On Nov 24 12:14 PM zapman59 wrote:

> all the more reason to go electric. you don't need to burn something
> to make the wheels go round and round and fueling up at your home
> with an extendion cord is about as simple as it can get.

Why Silver’s Breakout Could Bring It Out of Gold’s Shadow

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 22:00:11 -0500

The story I read in one of the business web sites was that the Chinese Gov't was encouraging it's citizens to buy silver instead of gold, I supppose not a lot of folks can afford much gold. but it is only recently that little gold bars hae been made available at the bank so can easy them. You could probably call that encouragement. to bad our banks are not that friendly to us.

On Nov 23 10:24 AM TTolstoy wrote:

> I keep hearing gold bugs saying that China is telling its citizens
> to buy gold and silver, but there is never any objective proof of
> this. No one has ever produced any hyperlink to any Chinese government
> publication, or newspaper article saying that. I do not believe,
> therefore, that they are telling their people to buy gold or silver.
> They may be buying these two metals, but it isn't because of anything
> the government told them. If there is some article or government
> publication that proves me wrong, I'd love the hyperlink. Even if
> it is written in Chinese, it is easily translated, using any number
> of computer based translation programs.

Why Silver’s Breakout Could Bring It Out of Gold’s Shadow

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:40:12 -0500

And they pay a decent dividend if held in the etf (fxa). You gain two ways rising price plus a dividend.

On Nov 23 06:04 PM Monticello Sage wrote:

> I lived in South East Asia for almost a year last year, and, I saw
> a growing and educated middle class, who were entrepreneurial, street
> smart, and DISCIPLINED savers.
>
> I'm sailing back over there on my live-aboard sailboat, because the
> US is moving in the direction of federal bankruptcy, if it doesn't
> start becoming more fiscally responsible in the near future.
>
> Asians DO like to buy gold, and, silver, and, since the dollar will
> continue to weaken so long as our federal, state, and local governments
> borrow too much money during a war-weakened economy, I am moving
> back there to start a tourism business using my sail-boat and scuba
> gear.
>
> I plan to look at the momentum and volume data on gold-related investments,
> because I'm bullish on gold. I'm still wary of silver, since central
> banks don't buy it, but, I haven't ruled it out.
>
> Meanwhile, about 10% of my investment account is in Aussie dollars,
> because they are relatively safe way to ride the resource inflation
> bull.

Why Silver’s Breakout Could Bring It Out of Gold’s Shadow

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:36:35 -0500

Todays price in gold and sliver have as much to do with 1980 as it has to do with the price when they were building the pyramids or when rome fell. I wish folks would get off this kick, it is not relevant to todays situation.

Why a Market Crash Doesn’t Matter

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:48:35 -0500

Your point is well taken and well said, however, your statement does point up to the fact that good investing advise is a very rare thing. Most financial advises and mutual fund managers cause very weak investments for their customers and are in no way beneficial to the individual. Truth is that markets are full of sharks and it is extremely difficult for individual investors, of which I am one to make good progress or buy good advise. These folks all pedal the same advise, diversify. Some very wise folks say that if you have to diversify it is because you don't know what you are doing. I wish I had the talents to read accounting statements and come to conclusions as Buffet and lynch do, but I still don't believe in diversification. Diversification is like using a 12 gauge shotgun to kill a fly most of your ammo is lost even if you do manage a hit.

On Nov 22 09:55 AM TradingHelpDesk wrote:

> "Investing giants like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch are on record
> as ignorers of the general stock market. Instead, they are only interested
> in the specific companies they own."
>
> Well that's obvious. If you own large stakes in a couple of dozen
> companies then of course the company specific issues are dominant
> in your mind. But there are millions of US investors who - on the
> advice of their consultants - have exposure to the wider market,
> the S&P 500, or Russell Indices, so for you to dismiss their
> wider "stock market" worries as unfounded is a bit unsympathetic.
>
>
> Let's not forget the Dow 30 is lower now than it was 10 years ago.
> There's plenty to be legitimately worried about if you are exposed
> to equities I think.

Brazil Increases Taxes to Bust Bovesta

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:09:03 -0500

This is not a spelling or trivia contest. Find some real reason to criticize.

On Nov 22 12:25 PM bztrdr wrote:

> If you like investing in Brasil for so many reasons then it would
> probably be wise to first start with getting the name of the country's
> stock exchange correct. The indice is the "Bovespa" not Bovesta.
> And in case you don't know, brasilians speak portuguese not spanish.
> Blows me away the number of professionals that blindly throw billions
> into this market following the herd but know almost nothing about
> it. A little DD on the name of the indice for starters would help.

The Truth Behind China's Currency Peg

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:59:17 -0500

Warren Buffet and the central bank of India are not the only ones trading dollars for real assets. Warren says cash is a very poor investment and the Chinese polititions are way ahead of ours in economic and political IQ.

Investments into Commodities Surpass 2006 Record

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 14:32:15 -0500

9-1 Really, Is anything in the world that sure?

Where the Wild Things Are (Portfolio Edition)

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 12:54:02 -0500

Cash doesn't physically self distruct. It is always somewhere. The more you print and electronically create the less it's purchasing power becomes. A lot of companies these days are printing and selling more stock certificates without really improving anything more than exc. pay and bonuses. But things not so easily increased will rise until they reach a price that reduces demand for them or where their price fails to maintain or increase the purchasing power of the buyers.

TheStreet.com's Accounting Mess: What Would Jim Cramer Have to Say?

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 12:29:13 -0500

Crammer is always saying he is there to entertain. If I want entertainment I will call on Boozo The Clown. Thank you very much.

TheStreet.com's Accounting Mess: What Would Jim Cramer Have to Say?

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 12:26:32 -0500

I don't think Cramer is allowed to have a personal portfolio in stocks as per his tv contract. The idea that some one can be on tv five days a week and have several great ideas each day is a joke. The bullya bufoon should be replaced as all the folks on that net work who have to yell and fight to get attention. Guests with someting really important and real to say are continually cut off and yellers and screamers and fighters are allowed to waste time. We would all learn a whole lot more in a calmer and quieter atmostphere. As far a Crammer selling books, I made the horrible mistake of buying one and found it very shallow and vauge, like his show.

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 12:04:09 -0500

Do the statistics show an increased ton miles shipped? I doubt it.

On Nov 22 10:50 AM LKofEnglish wrote:

> Just came from Wyoming. Did a tour of the world's largest sulphate
> mine. Interesting stuff. Struck by how many "sugar factories" are
> being built in that state, too. Ethanol in Wyoming is $1.89. Cheap
> as Iowa. Barely grow a cob of corn in Wyoming, tho. Be interesting
> how many of you paper chasers can imagine how Wyoming produces so
> much sugar. Of course who cares about hard assets anymore, right?
> Let alone what Karl Marx called "the means of production." As Clemenceau
> of France said during World War II, "war is too important for the
> generals." It would appear in America today "the economy is too important
> for Wall Street bankers." Transports at a record high. I expect a
> tremendous uptick in inflation in the very near term--perhaps in
> the next few weeks. The trucking traffic in the American midwest
> right now is just amazing. Like watching salmon running upstream
> to their spawning grounds. Looks like that highway bill got passed
> just in time.

A Tale of Two Markets: Overvalued Stocks and the Declining Dollar

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 21:08:29 -0500

What will they be buying with those dollars and what sucker is going to acept them for what kind of assets?

On Nov 21 11:33 AM fwi wrote:

> The whole market schtick of gaming low estimates to pump stocks is
> so last year. I have always thought Wall Street was usually ahead
> of their game. I think this whole sick relationship with obama and
> DC has really taken their edge off, and that this time they will
> lose like last year, but without the taxpayer largesse. I firmly
> believe that the real leg down is coming. And it really will not
> be about anything but the exposure of the risks and leverage they
> have. True exposure last fall was avoided by the quick bailout. This
> will not happen the second time. And the catalyst to bring about
> this miracuous truth? THe world led by China and its would be friends
> will start dumping Treasuries. Not dollars, Treasuries.

A Tale of Two Markets: Overvalued Stocks and the Declining Dollar

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 21:04:01 -0500

I am with you. we need real profits not analyst's thoughts.

On Nov 21 10:31 AM Old Trader wrote:

> bbro,
>
> The other evening, Bloomberg TV had an interesting factoid to mull
> over: 80% of companies reporting beat estimates, however, profits
> were DOWN 46%, YoY, which implies that analysts erred on the downside,
> when issuing their estimates, not that things are improving by any
> great measure.

Vitamin Beats Statin: Is Merck's Zetia in Trouble?

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 20:39:17 -0500

I had to stop taking niaspan due to the cost. I fell into the doughnut hole, A lot of money for supedup niacin.

Investments that Could Hold Up to a Double Dip

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 09:06:02 -0500

It is emerging from the abuse of nazi Germany and the USSR.

On Nov 20 03:44 PM wozdan wrote:

> "Australia was the only developed country to avoid recession"
> - this sentence holds true only for the narrowest of definitnions
> of the term developed. The validity of your statement depends on
> what you mean by developed. Poland is a second developed country
> that had also positive growth during the 'crisis. If we use CIA's
> definition, then Poland would be a developed country as it is a member
> of the OECD. It's also a member of the EU, which makes the case a
> bit stronger. - this comment is not intended as criticism or anything
> of that sort, I thought it's just a good opportunity to underscore
> the not very well known fact (especially in the West) that there
> really is some country between Germany and Russia - with a pretty
> interesting history, too.

Is the Fed Blowing Bubbles? JPM on Asset Reflation Myths

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 08:15:34 -0500

The catalyst would be real profits, not imagined profits, not estimated profits, not beat the analyst profits, but real profits. The BS foot print is growing larger it may be what engulfs the polar bear.

GE's Immelt Turns Dem

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:13:50 -0500

If what you say is true how do you explain NBC? WHY WOULD A CEO WHO ISN'T LIBERAL THROUGH AND THROUGH LET ONE OF HIS COMPANIES ACT LIKE THEY DO?

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:03:07 -0500

Every year China give birth to ten times as many geniuses as we do. Now that they are not forced to work the fields and are allowed to read watch out.

On Nov 20 07:55 PM Go Lakers wrote:

> Hooray, finally someone who speaks some sense. This line is absolute
> garbage:
>
> "Without America discovering the “next new thing” our previous standard
> of living will accelerate downward."
>
> America pretty much has a mortgage on this business, particularly
> in the tech space. I don't understand how because a large group of
> people wanted to buy homes and they were lent money they shouldn't
> have been that the American ability to innovate has somehow disappeared
> into this air.
>
> Can you please explain that to me Mr. Clark? Or anyone else?

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:56:59 -0500

He is great but not God.

On Nov 19 02:11 PM bobbybutte wrote:

> As a person who has become financially independent SOLELY through
> investing let me add a few things
>
> Ill give you 158 billion reasons why we will have no depression

>
> Mr warren Buffett the only person to ever earn over 150 billion for
> he and his investors allocating capital has told you it is not happening
>
>
> Want more proof. none of the big shorts like paulson Rogers Soros
> chanos kass are shorting financials here like they were
>
> Want more proof Chinese economy would fold if america's 12 trillion
> dollar econmy just died out or even went back drastically
>
> Fact is you can continue to get debt as long as someone is willing
> to back you
>
> China will back us but at what price?
>
> Forget all this depression crap.not happening
>
> what happened last year wa sa massive deleveraging

Faber: Gold a Better Buy than at $300/oz.

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:01:23 -0500

Try using 1998 instead and tell me how things work out.

On Nov 19 12:57 PM bobbybutte wrote:

> Fromeher i follow you
>
> But let me add something
>
> Gold was 300 when the S&P was grossly overvalued and many stocks
> like IBM had high pes
>
> Now large cap multinationals are undervalued historically for the
> most part and gold is a very crowded trade
>
> For example is 1990 gold was about 400 bucks today its over 1100
> and the 100K you invested would be be about 275 K but you have gotten
> no income
>
> But if you bought KO in 1990 at teh same pe its at now you would
> have gotten more appreciation in the last 7 years of dividends than
> golds entire cap gain was
>
> You would have been taxed less and also the 100000 you put in Ko
> would have spit you out over 200k in the past 8 years alone
>
> and your Ko would be worth 1,150,000 now
>
> Large cap multinationals are better than gold UNLESS gold is at record
> lows and stocks are overvalued like in most of this decade
>
> Remember what wise people do in the beginning fools do in the end

Faber: Gold a Better Buy than at $300/oz.

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:54:04 -0500

These numbers sound suspicious to me.

On Nov 19 12:57 PM bobbybutte wrote:

> Fromeher i follow you
>
> But let me add something
>
> Gold was 300 when the S&P was grossly overvalued and many stocks
> like IBM had high pes
>
> Now large cap multinationals are undervalued historically for the
> most part and gold is a very crowded trade
>
> For example is 1990 gold was about 400 bucks today its over 1100
> and the 100K you invested would be be about 275 K but you have gotten
> no income
>
> But if you bought KO in 1990 at teh same pe its at now you would
> have gotten more appreciation in the last 7 years of dividends than
> golds entire cap gain was
>
> You would have been taxed less and also the 100000 you put in Ko
> would have spit you out over 200k in the past 8 years alone
>
> and your Ko would be worth 1,150,000 now
>
> Large cap multinationals are better than gold UNLESS gold is at record
> lows and stocks are overvalued like in most of this decade
>
> Remember what wise people do in the beginning fools do in the end

Faber: Gold a Better Buy than at $300/oz.

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:50:13 -0500

yuk!!!!!!!

On Nov 19 08:31 AM Fibozachi wrote:

> Please put that call up on the wall right next to Dick Bove's US
> Dollar to zero; utterly ridiculous and without any technical merit.
>
>
> Technical Profiles of Gold vs Silver, the US Dollar vs Gold and the
> US Dollar with highlights from an interview with the winner of the
> 2008 Automated Trading Championship
>
> www.zerohedge.com/arti...
>
>
> As for a quick overview of price action within the primary domestic
> equity and international currency markets ... yesterday’s internal
> market readings were reflective of only one thing: HFT algos attempting
> to pin XOM et al. ahead of OpEx as the DJIA takes decisive leadership
> across domestic equity markets while the NDX-100, SP-500 and RUSSELL
> 2K considerably under-perform. For a more detailed explanation of
> this concept, please see “Technical Profiles of 8 Key Stocks: AIG,
> BIDU, CAT, CELG, DRYS, GS, IBM, SKF.”
>
>
> VOLD lame … ADD weak … TICK highly erratic while the VIX continues
> to coil lower and register serious positive divergences on the weekly.
> The $DXY US Dollar Index plotted a new swing low yesterday at 74.68
> yet reversed sharply to close well over the 75 handle. ONLY a 135
> minute (1/3 the cash) or 144 minute close above 75.77 will shift
> the hourly profile from bearish to neutral; and until there are two
> consecutive closes above 76.89 there is NO uptrend to speak of. The
> EURO appears to be initially confirming a possible USD bottom. Swissie
> (CHF) and EuroYen (EURJPY) are the next two majors/ crosses needed
> to confirm any possible US Dollar bottom.

U.S. Commodity Funds to Begin Trading 'United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund'

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:20:49 -0500

How far in the future can you foresee?

On Nov 17 04:51 PM SCN4 wrote:

> It will be interesting to see how this ETF plays out. For now, it
> appears UNG is still a good short. Market remains soft for the foreseeable
> future IMHO.
>
> www.liveenergy.com/200.../