oneoldude

Reports Indicate China's Ecosystem Is Too Far Gone to Support a Growing Economy

Paul,

Went to your web site. It has some interest being that you are there.

But let's be sure to point out that China and the U.S. are very close to being the same land size. And interestingly, according to the CIA World Book, China has about 14.86% airable land and the U.S. about 18%. China has permanent crops on about 1.27% of its airable land and the U.S. on about .27%. Note that China's use is about 5 times that of the U.S. That nicely matches the the four fold population difference given that China's agricultural efficiencies are not up to U.S. standards.

I have not yet been to China, but I have flown the length and breadth of the U.S. many times. Each time I do so, I am amazed at the massive areas of undeveloped and unfarmed arid land in the U.S. I suspect the same can be said of China given the World Book stats I have cited here. If I am correct, this means that there is an extraordinary potential for growth in the use of airable land in both countries.

In a sense, China has the some of same problems they had in the 1950's. In those days China was on a massive infrastructure building spree. People were building roads with their bare hands. Developed nations offered modern road building equipment on the cheap to help out all those labouring Chinese. The Chinese Gov declined. Their reason ... The added efficiency would put many people out of work!

At this time in the world economic cycle, there are people being laid off in China as in the rest of the world. Many will be going back home to the farm. And the Gov is doing what it can with infrastructure and other spending to give people jobs. Eventually the world economy and China's economy will rebound. Eventually the peasant farmers will die out and more productive farming will become the norm. Eventually the one child policy will be formally modified (informally it is already happening). Eventually the pollution problems will be resolved. Eventually the water scarcity will be resolved. Things will improve. China will become the world's economic superpower.

In the meantime there will be stumbles and bumps. There will be shortages of commodities. There will be corporate profits made and lost. There will be gains and shrinkages in GDP growth. There will be opportunities for investors and speculators in all of these cases. But to suggest that all in the long run is lost, is way too shortsighted for me. But then again I am just oneoldude that has watched the passing parade for more than a few years and have been impressed at the determination and inventiveness of the Chinese people. I expect them to continue their successes over time.

Reports Indicate China's Ecosystem Is Too Far Gone to Support a Growing Economy

"How can a nation’s economy grow when its soil is rapidly eroding and its water is rapidly becoming so polluted that it isn’t just unsafe to drink. It’s even unsafe for fishing, farming and factory use."

Perhaps a look in the rear view mirror of history might help answer this question.

As a child, during the late 1940's and throughout the 1950's, I was constantly told by school teachers (and later by college professors) that the U.S. was soon coming to an end because of soil erosion, air and water pollution, population explosion, lack of available land (they don't make it any more) and the inability of the third world to provide its own food supply.

Since that time it has become clear that there is a whole lot of land available. Been in an airplane lately? Also, modern farming has reduced soil erosion, new industries have popped up to provide help in the realm of water and air pollution, population growth has not stopped but has been controlled in various parts of the world by individual choice and in other parts by government control.

This is not to say that there are no continuing problems in these areas. But looking at history shows that mankind has a great propensity to deal with problems and to continue to successfully march toward the future. Indeed, it often appears that many of the problems might be better viewed as opportunities.

Bottom line is, that during the 50 years since I was a child, the U.S. and the world has increased GDP, increased the standard of living, increased life expectancy, increased education and in general moved toward a more comfortable future for all. And all of this motion and growth has occured in the context of inevetable economic cycles of boom and bust.

China will do the same.

It's 1974 for the U.S., but 1929 for China

Articles like this one show that there are opposing views on everything.

For those with actual experience and knowledge about the "real deal" in China, please enlighten us about your point of view regarding what is "really going on." And please give us all some data to support your opinions of error in the original article.

From my point of view, China is facing a recessionary/depressio... environment. But with a still positive GDP. That is sort of an oxymoronic statement, but the Chinese Gov needs GDP growth probably over 6.5%, or so, to keep the society stable. The real question is how long it will take for a recovery in GDP (faster GDP growth) and how fast the commensurate broad corporate profits increases, that should coincide with faster GDP growth, will take.

Inquiring minds want to know.