User 307291

What Obama Needs to Know about Tim Geithner, the AIG Fiasco and Citigroup

Does anyone have an estimate of the government's exposure to CDS as a result of AIG's book?

For instance in the Lehman closeout, $400B of their debt resulted in $6B (give or take) in actual CDS settlement. Assuming 10-15% of counterparties insured by AIG default over the next 18 months, the gloomiest of nuclear winter scenarios, what is the taxpayers' hit?