specialp

Fast Money Recap - Has Buffett Lost His Touch? (11/25/08)

Yeah rewind this article to 1999, and you could have probably published the same thing. In fact the same words were coming out. I am not saying warren is a god or something, but he has a cool head. If everyone thinks about it, it was clear in 2000 we were in a dot com bubble, and no that is not hindsight talking. I thought so too then, but everyone was caught up on "oh this time something is different" Same with the housing bubble. Now people think that something is different on the other side that the market will never come back, and buffett is dumb.

The fact is that fundamentals are fundamentals, and as he says "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful" Sounds really simple and it is! If you sold bubbles and bought on dips, EVERY time you will end up making money. How do you know a bubble? Hmm when houses are up 300% and there wasnt some earthquake that swallowed 2/3rd of all homes in the USA? When 23 year old kid buys 6 homes with no income or money down?! IT is all obvious! The fact is people are emotional and stupid. If you can sit back and watch like he does, you can make money like he does.

If you read the 2002 berkshire letter to shareholders from warren he EXACTLY knew what could happen with derivitaves. It is uncanny. So a long time bear would not be buying now if we were doomed forever.