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Aussie Machead

Aussie Machead
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  • Here Is My Take On The Apple Stock Split [View article]
    Sounds like the repatriation using bonds is financially sound. Also a stock split and a quick rise of AAPL to a $100 has a good feel for an early target price. In reality the split shares at $100 is the same as the previous high of $700
    Jun 12 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Let's Not Get Ahead Of Ourselves [View article]
    The 7 to 1 split was such a good number because when AAPL hits $100 its like 100% it equals the all time high of $700 in old shares... and then its on a new track of up up up -- I think the law of large numbers doesn't apply in this market because there is a lot of competition and Apple does not have a monopoly in any market just great quality products.
    Jun 10 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy BlackBerry, Sell Apple [View article]
    Buy low sell high might work in the new product, rising product life cycle model - but with Blackberry they are chasing old product old ecosystem and with merely a NAME as collateral - experimenting with New Device in a crowded market and a defunct BBY ecosystem. Apple has a strong protected ecosystem which ties in users as they invest in apps, music etc, Google also has a strong ecosystem - which many users turn a blind eye to the spying on personal information BUT Blackberries ecosystem harks back to messaging and secure emails - something which can easily be replaced by someone else's ecosystem over time. Message and emails die over time - many large corporations the source of BBY business for many years have ageing policies in place which destroy emails at 1 year or even 6 months and I'm sure the same applies to messaging.

    So basically Blackberry is in that slow dying phase of declining product life cycle and its opportunities to reinvent itself are in reality just not there.

    So if someone very quickly buys BBY at $4 and watches for $6 and then sells - maybe they will make on the deal at a greater percentage than established AAPL or GOOG but would you risk a million dollars this way?
    May 7 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Apple Fallen? [View article]
    Apple is doing well and will not fall because of its integrated range of products. Creation is important and Mac Pro's as well as MacBooks play an important role with the OsX having evolved cleanly through 10 stages - the iPad, iPhone and Apple TV all integrate seamlessly and every year it improves. There are no other companies in the world which span this range. Microsoft has given an awkward jolt to its Windows OS with 8 and a late version of phones and rejected tablets. Google won't take the leap into actually producing the full range of products. Samsung is into phones and not much integration beyond and relies of Google Android and so it goes on. IBM got out of personal computers, HP too. Apple has a plan and its a quality plan and consumers of their products can be confident of the future plan. That is why it doesn't matter that Samsung has lots of cheap smartphones - the business, academic, education and creative communities know which products can be relied upon long into the future and Apple is not fallen because we are in a creative world.
    May 1 09:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple About To Blow The Roof Off Of $600 [View article]
    Yes with such a low P/E no reason why all those with crazy investment in Amazon shouldn't buy 3 Apple shares for every Amazon they sell..
    Reckon apple will top $700 before the split
    Apr 30 10:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook, Macro Genius [View article]
    We all know the refresh cycle for Phones is influenced by the Telcos - many hire purchase arrangements but the refresh cycle for iPads is likely to be more like a computer of 3 or 4 years. I wouldn't start writing off the iPad yet. the stickiness of the ecosystem is very strong and there is really nothing to match.
    There has been a lot of vapour stock in the tech field - look at Amazon, FB even Google - I suspect that investors are about to turn on them and invest in stock with more classic attributes. Apple is certainly in a rediscovery phase and the strength of the iPhone in the last Q obviously surprised many analysts plus all the share structural changes brought about by TC.
    Apr 30 09:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch The Gap: Apple's Long And Twisted Pricing Journey [View article]
    Maybe the simple thing is that Amazon are not performing and investors are finally switching from a company with a crazy P/E ratio and lots of dreams which don't monetise into AAPL stock which has proven record for the company of growth, profits and cash.
    I think psychology plays the part of waking up to reality and investors realise they made mistakes by thinking Amazon would every achieve good profits.
    Apr 30 07:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Q2 Review And Q3 Outlook [View article]
    This is all about existing products which are all well along their product life cycles and that makes the results all the more remarkable.

    Do Apple really have any competition? Samsung does not split out the Galaxy data and if you look around the city streets and airports - the majority of phones appear to be iPhones. So maybe in this bracket there is little competition. The apps, the music, the videos are all very sticky. So this bull run is predicated on current established products - THE SECRET WEAPON will be what causes the challenge to the principle of THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS... an era of change
    Apr 24 08:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 5 Reasons Apple's Earnings Report Was Huge [View article]
    This quarter was the real UP YOURS to analysts. Each quarter they have been able to poo poo Apple beating the analyst predictions because there was a downward trend or it was only a little better then expected but this time the iPhone (a product which has been around for 8 years and is still in this LONG product life cycle despite competition) blew the analyst prediction out of the water.

    Now lets have a bull run with the capital accumulation, healthy dividends, buyable share prices, new products properly tested in the wings, a low low P/e ratio and high high earnings per share - Apple deserves some positive market sentiment.

    And lets face it Samsung only gets high market penetration because they sell lots of models many of them distinctly mediocre. Can you ever imagine Apple putting a watch out like the Samsung Gear with all its associated problems and terrible return rate.

    Long Apple and staying there
    Apr 24 07:48 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Heading To $700 [View article]
    With results like today - it is on track to become bullish as I said!
    Apr 23 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Heading To $700 [View article]
    If this market turns bullish for Apple it will be rational.. At one time Analysts were talking $1000 but it was Google which reached that and Apple went in the opposite direction as the bears took hold.

    There is no rationality in being bullish for Amazon or Facebook (even Google is more than it ought to be) and yet they have enjoyed such high P/E.

    The turn for Apple will come quickly.. so hang on in long term shareholders. It may be a big surprise today on China Mobile numbers which apparently is having to roll out 4G quickly because of core business phone call and SMS decline and the arrival of iPhone. This quarter is the first full quarter (almost) of China Mobile. So there may be a surprise in the numbers. There is no production shortage this quarter either.

    As for the big competitor Samsung - you never see the split for top of the range phones and most of the Samsung sales are the low margin pumped out models which are made in ever increasing models. Take the top end of the market and just look around as you walk around city street or you board airlines.. Samsung are in a minority... I see lots of iPhones wherever I go and the more investment in music and apps the stickier Apple is - customer loyalty is very big and internet use on Apple products is way higher than Android.

    So I say wait for the Bull Turn and then $700 is not the dream but back to $1000 plus.
    Apr 22 08:02 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Waters Ahead For Apple In China [View article]
    Where is the Samsung actual phone model breakdown. We know Samsung sells a lot of low end smartphones ... basically the feature phone market it no more and low end smartphones have replaced it. Lets compare the Samsung S4 or S5 with iPhone and then the real percentage of market for Apple will become more transparent.
    Mar 13 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Waters Ahead For Apple In China [View article]
    Doesn't this mean that Apple has 70% of the above $400 market? Pretty Good. At least we know with Apple data that the phones are top end of the market phones. Samsung sales are across the full range and the numbers include some pretty cheap and nasty smartphones. No feature phones any more - its all smartphones trouble is many of these phones now are exceptionally basic Apple does not fit in that category.
    Mar 13 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Poised To Disrupt Another Industry [View article]
    How often to you expect a new INVENTION. The expectations of Apple are crazy.
    iMacs, iPods, iPhones and iPads has a few years in between. Apple isn't into releasing dysfunctional "inventions" - they actually test that the devices are going to work beautifully because they know users expect the best professional releases .. not rubbish like the Samsung Gear or Google Glass. Samsung show themselves as gung-ho with Gear and with 30% return rates - !!!
    So when the invention comes it will be well tested etc but these are no yearly occurrences. A lot of confusion with Steve Jobs death bed promises of TVs etc but let the market go and flow. As iPhones and iPad get into steady state market that is the time to grab at the purse strings and persuade to try a whole new product.
    I reckon the analysts have got it all wrong with Apple and when the INVENTION comes it will zoom up before the naysayers get a chance to buy back in..
    Jan 30 07:02 AM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    Look at time frames of MAJOR new product release and maturing market curves. With Apple you have a huge user base, not only original new purchases but these extremely well made phones get passed through families and investment in ecosystem is substantial for nearly all users of iPhones - a different stat to Android where many users do not even collect email on the cheaper smart phones. When a new product with a new market growth is released - the established user base will create the most enormous demand.. This is the long term Apple methodology - iPod users led to iPhone users; iPhone users led to iPad users. Creating a totally new electronic concept is not done every year. The user base will want quality not being a TEST market in the way that Samsung treats its new users. I would say that the pent up demand for new product type is growing every year and standard market decline from saturation impacts on iPhones and iPad and there is just a renewal phase to service, a new product type will hit the ground running. An announcement will see a very sudden rise as we have seen before with Apple and if you short the stock you are set to lose out on what you would have gained by holding. There are reasons they don't want those lawyers snooping...
    Jan 29 09:44 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment