Maryocon

The Future of California's Housing: Shortage Ahead?

Mark
The crazy realtors did not create the crazy loans. There was high demand during the bubble years, that had little to do with realtors. It was on the front page of every newspaper day after day. Realtors do not create demand, if they did we would not be seeing the market we have seen over the last several years where there has been no demand.
You are absolutly right about saying what happened in the past will happen in the future... I am not a fortune teller, I don't know if the sun will come up tomorrow, but I can read history and I can make intelligent assumption about the future, that is the best I can do.

The Future of California's Housing: Shortage Ahead?

We ought to be very thankful it is not that easy to get a loan. Who needs 110% financing. That was the main reasons that we got into the economic fix we are in right now. The California real estate market was overheated for several years and would have slowed a lot sooner had not those crazy loans been around. The normal laws of supply and demand would have done it's job. Now the whole country is paying the price for those loans. It is normal after a deflationary period in the California housing market that prices stablize and then go up slowly. When it is cheaper to buy than it to rent, and in some places that is already true, the market will change and prices will increase. This whole cycle takes about 8 to 10 years.

The Future of California's Housing: Shortage Ahead?

In the third quarter of 2008 the affordability factor for all of California was 53%. To some people that might not seem very low but to those of us who live this market that is a very good rate and I suspect that it is historically average to low. When you go from a 3, 6, 10 percent affordability to over 40 or 50 percent you have opened your market up to millions of more buyers.
Sure there are going to be more defaults but don't kid yourself there are a lot more buyers out there now just waiting to get into the market.

The Future of California's Housing: Shortage Ahead?

You nailed the California market in your article. I have been in Calif Real Estate for 34 years. It is a yo-yo market and is very predictable. You predictated correclty what will happen very soon. It may have already started. We are getting multiple offers on our properties right now. We are at the very bottom of this housing depression as long as we do not get another shock to our economy. The California Real Estate market is turning. Housing is now affordable for the average buyer and we have less and less housing on the market every month. We will continue to have foreclosures for a couple of more years but they will not be the steals that they are today.

Bracing for Another Round of Credit Related Woes

The Real Estate market is bottoming at least in most of California. I am not sure about the hardest hit areas but I sure see the bottom here in Sonoma county. It will take awhile, probably a couple of years before it completly turns and starts heading up again, but if someone wants to get in on the bottom now is the time to do it. This is my third Real Estate downturn and the end is finally in sight.

What's Ahead for Real Estate: Doing the Math

The problem with using a "wrap" or lease option/lease to own is that if they are recorded, and the lender catches it, they can call the loan. Right now fraud is big on the lender's agenda and anything that they can do to get the loan called they will do.

What's Ahead for Real Estate: Doing the Math

I will agree with the above comment.

Take over my mortgage doesn't work, we don't have takeover loans anymore, there are due on sale clauses on all loans.

I sell REO's and until those stop or slows down to where inventory is being reduced, we will not see an end to this crisis. When an REO comes on the market it is usually priced lower than the previous one that came on the market in order to get it sold. This is why we are getting the downward spirial and this is why this mess is going beyond the sub-prime and into the alt-A loans and the prime loans. Houses are not worth the mortgage people are paying and they are walking away. This will continue until something is done to stop the foreclosures.

The powers that be don't get it. They are so worried about "moral hazard" the buzz word of the free market and trickle down group...that they can't see the forest for the trees. It is common sense not economic jiberish.

Bernanke to the Rescue: Homebuilders Bounce - For Now

What the market is not aware of and what the public is not aware of is that their has been a major increase in buyers coming back into the housing market. Over the next couple of months you will see a major upturn in the housing stats. I know because I am on the front line and I am receiving the calls. Housing is more affordable, their is a glut of foreclosures on the market bringing prices down. People are looking now for that good buy and they are finding it. Prices may still come down for another year but we are nearing the bottom if in fact we are not already there.

8 Predictions for 2008

. The housing market will not bottom in the middle of next year. The housing market will not bottom until the inventory of homes on the market decreases from 1 year, plus or minus, to six or 8 month. It will not bottom until the affordability factor reaches at least 40+%. We are not even close to that figure in most parts of the country. It will not bottom until credit is available to a wide variety of buyers and that does not look like it will happen in the near future. I just wish his prediction was correct but it isn’t even close.