I graduated from a decent business school. Most of my Chinese classmates went back to China, either working in IBanks or PE or starting their own bz. I chat with them weekly. Based on what they told me, I do not think China economy is as bad as you predict. It is true that 2009 would be painful for Chinese as it is for everyone else. But it does not lead to collapse. Although, during the passed 30 years, Chinese have enjoyed double digit growth, they, as many asian, know how to live a poor life. But the same generation here live on debt, enjoy good life at the cost of future. I think it will be more painful and harder for us to scale down to live a "moderate" live than Chinese.
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A strong central gov, which controls the resource completely, will do the best under this type of situation.