DavidtheGrim

Today in Commodities: The Commodity Train Is Leaving the Station

Abe...... Find the facts first before you post! Here's the NGAS ETF discussed in my previous post........

www.etfsecurities.com/...

Your looking at general stocks instead of funds!

ETF Update: Spotlight on China

Not far wrong so far!

Today in Commodities: The Commodity Train Is Leaving the Station

Reginald... I don't think Matt implies that the dollar is linked at all with commodities, it simply doesn't work that way!

UNG is a fund specialising in futures contracts which can be risky to say the least.

If investors are looking for a better deal IMO try the following ETF's: NGAS + NGSP both the same apart from NGAS denominated in USD and NGSP denominated in Sterling.

NGAS & NGSP are designed to track the DJ-AIG Natural Gas Sub-Index sm and pays a capitalised interest return which cumulates daily. The Sub-Index is an "excess return" index and the interest component combines to give a total return investment.

Or try put options, short/forward or leveraged if you are brave enough!

Natural Gas ETF Awaits New Shares as Prices Fall

NGas at a fifteen year low.......... historically a bargin price, very well could fall further but still well worth a mid to long hold, some traders don't like charting......... I won't buy without it!!!

Today in Commodities: The Commodity Train Is Leaving the Station

Commodity trading has never had a better time over the last few years, traders often assume they are untradable, some of my best calls have been within the commodities areana over the last 2 years.

A dollar call short will be hard to call unless a market mover decides to pull out entirely, the best action would come from China which would bring the USD to its knees but China is already building a hedge against this with commodity reserves especially copper and gold.

As for natural gas I have been sitting on that said train and remain a first class passenger for the long run and not to make a short profit. Investors need to understand cycles and trends to make the most of profits here and natural gas fits perfectly within this sceanario.

If you can look at UNG chart but take the 20 year view (min) on trend association here and take note of the 15 year moving average and its low price points, that my friend is where we are currently and the trend is perfectly following the last 15 year low, within 12-24 months I strongly suspect that natural gas will have trippled in price towards the 10-12$ area but thats my opinion.

Forget the dollar movement for commodity movements especially gold it simply doesn't work all the time, infact it usually moves higher on the recovery from a reccesion as deep the one we are in so expect further moves up and also down unless CFD trading investigations reveal what is expected then the PM market could go either way depending on the situation at the time through short positions etc by the custodians backing the CFD market which is ultimately 'strange' in itself, if you hold CFD/ETC stocks look at the small print closely, very closely and you will discover the main shorters are the custodians of that said market which should be illegal.

Like I said just my opinion!

ETF Update: Spotlight on China

China still has potential in growth although beit smaller than recent years, it is shedding companies by the thousands and still continues to this day and will carry on shedding until supply meets demand.

I suspect China will be involved in dirty wars with it's base rate, cutting when no need to weaken its currency and to win over export with the western world in particular USA, could start a host of new problems with trade relations there.

Estimates for general growth range between 6-9% for 2009 and at present global situations a reasonable return with the right ETF or Chineese home stock picks (if your brave enough that is).

DTG

Infrastructure vs. Utility ETFs: Don't Be a Victim of Semantics

Money Morning reported today that Obama plans to spend approx $700bn on reinforcing the USA's infastructure network, which could grow further to $1 TRILLION (via UK, The Telegraph).

Probably Obama has been sneaky peaking at my write ups??? (see first comment above in replies).

Anyways enough said there..... It will happen globally!

DTG

Citigroup Sees Gold Reaching $2000

I think it would be a better punt to invest in its producers as gold miners have been severly hammered without serious downturn in the physical price, definately more upside to follow for gold miners. This has to play out.

To watch: GDX and HUI (showing a traditional 'W' bottom recently).

DTG

Infrastructure vs. Utility ETFs: Don't Be a Victim of Semantics

Utilities and Infrastructure are not that different towards eachother, basically utilities should be more weighted in commodity stocks, ie: water, gas, electricity including sewage, telephone services & other non comodities that provide a consumable for consumption, rather than infastructure which should be weighted in the physical network of systems which enable the consumables to be deployed through a physical network, ie: highways, river/canal systems, railways, tunnels, processing plants, generating plants and suchlike, however it is hard to differenciate between the two as particular stocks hold both, utilities and infastructure networks are commonly contained within one stock.

Therefore there should and will be a tight correlation for the two topics regarding share price when demand for both utilities and infastructure are being satisfied or not, unless supply fails to meet demand of utilities whilst the infastructure network is in place (during peak) and visa versa (in downturns).

That would be in an ideal world, however whilst utilities may be of plenty the infastructure to support it's movement may require updating, replacing or a new network installation may be required which inturn creates movement within the shareprice for the succesful tender of the construction firm leaving the utility consumable behind in movement until the service is actually deployed to its consumer.

I am a fan of both utilities and infastructure as areas within the western world have been little developed since the last one hundred years or so, especially within the UK.

In times of downturn it is important for countries to examine their own utilities and networks of infastructure and improve where possible in order to succeed the next bull, I expect that spending will commence within the coming years to improve and update the exhausted networks already laid out, it has to be done for its economic future.

Regarding the current share valuations of funds for both is merely that which is replicated at present throughout all sectors within the market creating a vortex for pulling of stocks including proven safeheavens.

DTG

Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in

Nah.......... thats bull, there's still alot of dust that needs to settle before a bottom is visable and in a current climate as we are now that will be some time off, I'd say wait at least until after this rally and in my opinion we are within a rally which may last all the way to spring then the bear will growl once more before a final bottom and at least one year of treading sideways before a reclaim of positions.

There is still alot of toxic waste yet to be dumped, financials need to recoup and retailers need to be shedded, stock will get cheaper than todays values.... IMO FTSE 100 will bottom between 3200 & 3500 however my worst fears in calculations could see a bottom at 2000 but I hope not as this is my extreme.

Lets wait till at least May and see what happens thereafter, watching for tech stocks (coms, semi-conductors, internet holders and infastructure), oil, gas & producers, silver & producers, various agri stocks & strong general blue chips.

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

A reasonable article but found hard to swallow on some parts regarding the Platinum/car manufacturers market, a loose call to say the least there! However I do feel that the mining industry at present is undervalued but like other stocks currently will continue to fall or tread sideways for sometime.

I am bullish on oil and natural gas but the time in my opinion is not the right time yet, dust needs to settle a little before you can see a solid bottom, perhaps we'll see this around the start of the second quarter 09.

Intristical value is by far the fairest price to pay and maybe this is the way forward for investors to take note and not the demand side after all the best sports car manufacturers produce excellent vehicles for an astronomical price tag, however a que of potential purchasers are kept waiting for delivery for such a car without price malnipulation in otherwords get in que and you will be served accordingly at a reserved price/a fair price!

Conclusion watch and keep watching now is not the time to purchase anything for investment sake, prices will become lower still.

DTG