Kyle Napierkowski

Fed Watch: Are We Seeing A Return to Nasty External Dynamics?

Bravo on this analysis! Very well reasoned and articulated, and I agree with your conclusions wholeheartedly. Keep up the good work.

Political Partisanship or Warnings That We Should Heed?

@FE812
Looks like a good, succinct summary, although I'd argue that defaulting in debt is possible if the choice is between true hyperinflation and default. High inflation (20, 30, 40% per year) will be damaging to the lower class as inflation always is, but will not in and of itself cause social unrest like a true hyperinflationary (100-500% per year) environment. Instead, the first receivers of inflated money will benefit -- AIG, Wall Street, contractors receiving stimulus money -- and the last receivers -- laborers -- will suffer.

Politicians and the financial elite are playing a delicate game: How much wealth can they transfer from the lower and middle class to financial institutions before people really start noticing? I'm not looking forward to seeing how the game ends.

Are We Still in a New Bull Market?

1. as per The Conference Board's Business Cycle Indicators, GDP is a lagging indicator, therefore we should expect GDP to decrease dramatically to reflect that we just have had a terrible economic crash. No forward information here.

2. By the same source, unemployment is a leading indicator, but in the opposite direction you suggest. If initial jobless claims go up, we should expect a bear market, not vice versa.

3. I'm not sure a rule-of-thumb ratio from 2001 really applies in the post-crisis economy. If anything, I wouldn't put my money on it.

All in all, this article stinks.

Preventing the Depression of 2009

Wow, it seems the people have spoken! Please add me to the list of readers that thinks this plan would be a disaster.

I can see it now...
"The economy is in need of increased stimulation via higher S&P levels"

code for:

"it's time to make everyone feel prosperous so that the incumbent President gets re-elected."

Preventing the Depression of 2009

Wow, it seems the people have spoken! Please add me to the list of readers that thinks this plan would be a disaster.

I can see it now...
"The economy is in need of increased stimulation via higher S&P levels"

code for:

"it's time to make everyone feel prosperous so that the incumbent President gets re-elected."

Emerging Markets: The New Spenders of the 21st Century

Despite winnersdon'tquit's off-putting caps lock text, s/he makes a rarely considered point worth more discussion. What about our economy necessitates simultaneous workaholicism and zero-savings habits? Economists uphold "Spend, spend, spend" policy as some means of maintaining America's economic dominance. I don't think we would actually be worse off with policies that were spending-neutral, instead allowing for the country to amass some of the excess wealth provided by an effective economy. Instead of using inflation as an incentive for immediate spending, we should cut it out and allow the market to decide how long consumers should hold on to cash. "Spend, spend, spend" becomes "spend, save, relax." The extra consumer savings will build in some insurance against economic downturns, smoothing market volatility in the long-term.

Emerging Markets: The New Spenders of the 21st Century

Despite winnersdon'tquit's off-putting caps lock text, s/he makes a rarely considered point worth more discussion. What about our economy necessitates simultaneous workaholicism and zero-savings habits? Economists uphold "Spend, spend, spend" policy as some means of maintaining America's economic dominance. I don't think we would actually be worse off with policies that were spending-neutral, instead allowing for the country to amass some of the excess wealth provided by an effective economy. Instead of using inflation as an incentive for immediate spending, we should cut it out and allow the market to decide how long consumers should hold on to cash. "Spend, spend, spend" becomes "spend, save, relax." The extra consumer savings will build in some insurance against economic downturns, smoothing market volatility in the long-term.

Now Is a Better Time to Assess Earnings, Not Valuations

Wow, bravo PrudentMan, that couldn't be more true. Unfortunately we can look forward to the exact opposite of your advice happening for years to come...


On Nov 30 10:51 AM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:

> All investments are only worth what they earn, especially free cash
> flow. One of the most respected (of course unheralded because he
> wasn't and an "establishment&amp... guy, only cared about sales
> and free cash flow because to manipulate sales is fraud regardless
> of what the clueless nonsense espouse at the FASB.
>
> The NBER will probably say this recession started this year when
> it started in March, 2007 and that great discounting mechanism, the
> stock market, continued to hit new highs like they did in 2000 when
> the recession started in March and the NBER lists the start in 2001,
> when it actually ended. Idiots learning from other idiots and getting
> Phds for it. (See Nobel winners Krugman as well as Merton and Scholes
> of LTCM fame with their "fellow traveler" Arafat and Jimmy Carter.)

>
>
> My friend was so good the management had to replace him with and
> an Ivy Leaguer (son of a friend of Alan Greenspan) as he wasn't one
> of "them", even though he won a Lipper (the only one the firm ever
> earned) and the fund, under its new "prestigious&q... manager
> folded. My friend also stated the truism that a derivative is only
> as good as its underlying security but with more risk. That was
> in 1987.
>
> If you haven't learned in the last ten years, that the smartest guys
> in the room are not on Wall Street, Boston or Washington as their
> P.R. people try to sell you on, you are doomed to continue to rely
> on the same investment statists.
>
> I think the next Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce along with
> the Council of Economic Advisors should be staffed with successful
> farmers and small businessmen - the less "formal" education the better.
> They know the "real world" every day and not by Ivy League syncophants
> who got their positions through networking.
>