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connellybarnes

connellybarnes
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  • ASB Hawaii Is About To Erupt [View article]
    The theory is splendid. But in practice, as soon as it comes time to enjoy the benefit of renewable power sources, public officials start fighting to minimize renewable power and maximize "revenue" instead.

    For example, SolarCity and Arizona public utilities such as Salt River Project have recently been fighting over whether the public utilities can charge customers with solar cells exorbitant fees due to lost revenue. SolarCity claims in a lawsuit that "New applications [in the area] have plunged 96 percent since December."

    http://bit.ly/1DXHSIE
    http://bit.ly/1wBI3b7

    Of course this just increases the attack surface on government waste. Now Tesla can sell people giant batteries (Powerwall) so they don't need to use the grid.

    Another example would be all the legislators who banned Tesla from directly selling cars in their states:

    http://bit.ly/1DXIcXI
    May 3, 2015. 10:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Yield Spreads To Assess The Relative Value Of The Mesabi Trust [View article]
    Hi James. Thanks for your thoughtful update on the Mesabi Trust. I might pick up some MSB if the iron ore price stabilizes and I get a better sense of what the Mesabi Trust and Cliffs' financials look like at the lower iron ore price.
    May 3, 2015. 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mesabi Royalty Trust - A Long-Life Asset With Massive Operating Leverage [View article]
    Thanks Nat for your updated thoughts on MSB! I don't really know enough about iron ore to value this trust with any great conviction. On the other hand it is interestingly cheap. If the iron ore prices stabilize and I get more sense of the MSB financials in a lower iron ore price regime, I might buy some.
    May 3, 2015. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quote Of The Day – Saturday, May 2, 2015 [View instapost]
    Actually now that I think about it more, I really admire the bets of early-to-mid period employees of Google and Onshape (a Cambridge startup that three of my friends joined).

    It's basically a "rapidly growing company has tons of capital" arbitrage.

    The companies were already flush with cash, and rapidly growing, so employees got salary competitive with the Old Tech behemoths, and some free optionality for 10 or 100 baggers. Unlike in the earliest stage of setting up the company, it was already a high probability success bet, and easier to "replicate" by just joining such companies at that stage. Even if the bet "failed" -- which would be low probability -- they would just go to some other large tech company and still make good salary.
    May 3, 2015. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quote Of The Day – Saturday, May 2, 2015 [View instapost]
    I generally admire the tech people who create useful companies, but with two caveats: (1) I would not want to live in SF, and (2) I think their bets would be more admirable if the outcomes (ex ante) were all succeed and get rich, instead of 90% chance to fail vs 10% chance to succeed and get rich.

    With that said, some of the best tech entrepreneurs took a bunch of one-way bets. However, I'm kind of at a loss for how to replicate their strategies.

    One nice thing about the professor job though is that one can spin-off businesses on the side. I haven't done that yet.
    May 3, 2015. 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Got Alpha. Now What? A New Way To Kill Spiders (SPY) [View article]
    I have never entered an order that is not a limit. I have recurring nightmares that I will order something like a cheesecake without a labelled price that turns out to be $5,000. The medical system -- with its absence of price tags -- is psychologically traumatizing for me. I don't know how some people can go through life without quoted prices and clear terms.
    Apr 28, 2015. 10:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk And Portfolio Management Similarities Between Joel Greenblatt And Stanley Druckenmiller [View article]
    Also, congratulations on new family members!
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk And Portfolio Management Similarities Between Joel Greenblatt And Stanley Druckenmiller [View article]
    Thanks for a nice article John. I'm a fan of concentration where it is limited to not get too extreme. Also thanks Diego for the Druckenmiller speech -- that was nice.
    Apr 27, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mesabi Royalty Trust - A Long-Life Asset With Massive Operating Leverage [View article]
    Hi Nat.

    Thanks for this nice article about MSB as a long-term holding.

    Do you have any new thoughts on MSB, given the challenging 2015 iron ore price environment?
    Apr 26, 2015. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Yield Spreads To Assess The Relative Value Of The Mesabi Trust [View article]
    Hi James,

    Thanks for the great article and comments.

    Do you have any new thoughts on MSB in 2015, given the significantly lower iron ore price environment? Do you consider it over or under-priced?
    Apr 26, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biffy Butler Bidet Sprayer/Digital Accessory Caddy Of Investments  [View instapost]
    bazooooka: Yes. I prefer it because of the faster decay. Especially considering high U.S. market prices and low VIX.
    Apr 25, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biffy Butler Bidet Sprayer/Digital Accessory Caddy Of Investments  [View instapost]
    Agreed. Before taking the position, I ran a bunch of statistical tests on the backfilled simulated UVXY data from Kuchita Investing (which covers the years of 2004-2015).

    It turns out UVXY has always lost money if you take a long position for at least 2.25 years (even through the 2007-2009 period, surprisingly). The maximum gain UVXY had from a previous low was 8x, which occurred in November 2008. I believe the knowledge that it is long-term declining but with interim 8x spikes can inform short sizing.

    But since I am extra paranoid I personally insure against 100x spikes by hedging with options.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biffy Butler Bidet Sprayer/Digital Accessory Caddy Of Investments  [View instapost]
    I took my first ever short position in UVXY recently. I hedged using the options chain though. Nice work on all these articles.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Around The World Shopping Spree [View instapost]
    Great post, thanks. Good for some weekend reading...
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha's Least Popular Article Ever [View instapost]
    I sometimes avoid commenting on your ignored articles because I want everyone to forget about those companies so I can buy them.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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402 Comments
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