ray b

Success in 2010 Requires Investing in Other Countries

Thanks for the excellent article.

How many hours do we all spend studying financial statements for revenues, EPS, management comments on the future and general knowledge on sectors, industries, countries? How much time does it take until one has a good grasp on where to invest? I spend time on the MSN site for company profiles, EPS, news, SEC link to financials. I like the Yahoo site for analyst info and industry sectors lists. I also look at Google finance, seeking alpha, tickerspy, and broad google searches on specific companies and countries.

I like China. I currently own CALI, CHIO, CMFO, NEP, CTDC, CHTL, LTUS, TSTC, TBV, CAAS, CIIC, KONG, VIT. I sold HPJ, HGSI, and OCLR as they went so high i got scared and took my profits. Some I bought yesterday at their hopeful lows, and some I have had a while. I have a hard time holding on when a stock triples in a short time.

But how do I balance the predictions of Rogers and Faber against the evidence provided by the financial statements of a Chinese company with a forward PE of 10 or less and a 50% growth rate?

I figure I hold my nose and put 2 to 5 percent of my portfolio in the company and keep an eye on it. Then I don't fight the tape - if the stock keeps dropping - I get out. Makes for a lot of work and constant shifting based on evidence which changes each day.

Gloom and doom are always looking over my shoulder. When Chanos says he is shorting China by shorting materials companies and shorting H shares, I sometimes get panicky and cut my exposure by half. Then I look at the same china stocks being up 500 % in a year as more evidence that Chanos is right. His knowledge of the situation has to be better than mine. But I am still there invested in China ADR's.

I have to fight my own greed when I find a stock that goes up 10% a week. My tendency is to keep buying. But when I do that, I end up losing my profits as the stock at some point corrects. So I try to be diverse in my greed, and buy more of 10 stocks that are doing well, and staying away from my one superstar.

Yes I still stay somewhat balanced with one Japan stock, one UK, and one Germany (NJ, TTPA, 927200) and US (AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, ORCL).

If it weren't for the fact that I enjoy the analysis, I would give up and buy Vanguard ETF's instead. But what is the fun in that!

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

If you think Frye is a GS basher, you should visit the ZeroHedge site.


On Sep 26 01:20 PM cma wrote:

> Fry's GS bashing is getting old, especially considering that GS has
> paid back the US everything that GS owed, while GM has "borrowed"
> mega billions which the taxpayer will never see back. And not just
> GM, but Citibank and many other financial institutions with US preferred
> stock investments which are not being marked to market.
> How come we never here about these "loans" that have defrauded the
> US taxpayer but only hear about GS?