Figure 03: The colored bands show total production (production profile for the typical NDIC well multiplied by net added producing wells during the month) added by month and its projected development (left hand scale). The yellow circles show net added producing wells by month (right hand scale). The thick black line shows actual reported production from Bakken (North Dakota) by NDIC (left hand scale).
The model was calibrated to start simulations as of January 2010.
The results from the simulation show that if the wells added as from January 2010 were like the typical well used in recent presentations by NDIC, total production from Bakken (ND) by February 2013 would have been around 1.1 Mb/d.
The thick black line shows actual production from Bakken (ND) reported by NDIC which was 0.7 Mb/d in February 2013.
If the NDIC typical well represented the “average”, the production build up would have been steeper as shown in Figure 03.
This supports earlier findings that the “average” well yields less than what has been reported, and actual well data from NDIC shows that the first year’s production from the average well presently yields around 55% of the typical NDIC well production used in several public presentations.
Pacific Drilling: Strong Growth Potential And Undervalued Relative To Peers [View article]
The world has been in a depression for the last few years. In turn, much less energy is needed, but once the economy does turn around, and it surely will, the demand for oil and ng will skyrocket. Improvement in everyday usage, better gas mileage for cars, for example, but there are far more cars in India and China to make up for the improved mileage. The depletion curves for shale oil and ng wells is much steeper then conventional wells drilled 20 years ago, not to mention the cost to drill and complete horizontal wells. From a personal perspective, as world populations expand and their standard of living improves oil will be needed more then ever. Wind power?? only if one can accept putting bird populations into extinction. Solar power will be of limited benefit. Nuclear? I'm for it but unfortunately I'm in a minority. What then can replace oil and ng in the next 25 years?
Philip, Offering objective analysis based upon an understanding of an industry and it's practices isn't, as you suggest, " pumping Bakken stocks". Michael's a big boy and has apparently been in this business a long time and surely doesn't need my help in defending himself, but I sure get tired of people accusing others of "pumping" oil stocks or of "Conspiracy theories" in the silver and gold investing areas. Frankly, I believe they do so because of a lack of understanding of the businesses. In any event, I sold TPLM last week around $6 for about a fifty cent pop over a three week period. I should have held longer but other opportunities are constantly being presented. Michael has been right more often then wrong, at least in my experience. But there is a simple answer to your suggestion about "Pumping" - take the opposite position. Life's a crap-shoot. If it was easy everybody would be doing it.
Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
There are 'THRESHOLDS" for every commodity. Prices will get too low or two high and then prices will break, and frequently go to extremes,on either side. WAGNER or SCHIFF?? They both make reasonable arguments. But only one will be right. Take your pick but for my part I'll let others try to pick a bottom or top. I'll try to follow the trend and take mine out of the middle 80%.
Bakken Update: Kodiak's Purchase Of Liberty Resources Could Make Or Break Its 2013 [View article]
And another possible problem is the souring of the oil. If it ain't one thing it's a half dozen of another.
"If the souring of the Bakken becomes more widespread it could have a big impact on the profitability of higher-cost producers like Kodiak Oil & Gas . Because it costs the company $10 million on average to drill a well, its rates of return are already lower than its peers in the $8 million per well range. Additional costs from hydrogen sulfide mitigation equipment or special pipelines will slow growth and crimp profits." Hang on boys and girls. The Eagle Ford may become more important since the Utica isn't as "oily" as initially thought.
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
Solto >>>>In the late 70's people stopped buying stocks and bonds and started buying goods and services along with gold and silver. <<< Question: Are not stocks in oil companies, mining companies, manufacturing companies, service companies, home building companies, shipping companies, food companies, timber companies, etc all "safe-guards" against inflation as they are all demand driven companies? Hence good investments to keep up with perceived inflation?
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
AVI, Several months ago, with silver in the $29 - $30 range you suggested a pull-back to the $25 area or so. I followed this "timing"suggestion and got out of my "Paper Holdings" in silver and gold for which I posted that the reason I got out was at your suggestion. Not unusual for me because I've been doing this for well over 50 years, although my primary interest is in oil , natural gas, and oil service companies. I've mentioned here and other sites that nothing drives prices like world and domestic politics. The reason being that politics drive supply demand issues, which in turn influences emotional reactions. The two emotions are one, fear of losing what one has gained or two, fear of missing out on the gains in a rising market. There are always conspiracy excuses about what drives prices. One that's been around for several years is that JPM has been holding a huge hoard of silver and has been using that hoard to drive prices to excessive highs, and then lows. Emotional rhetoric.Romors can drive emotions which, in turn drive price moves. To me and my trading philosophy, follow "fear" generating news and then try to see how big the EMOTIONAL factor may be and trade accordingly.
9 Top Consumer Goods Dogs Pursue 3.8% To 38% Gains In April [View article]
Well, another food - snack item - bought.
"PARSIPPANY, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 07, 2013-- B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE: BGS) announced today that it has acquired the TrueNorth nut cluster brand from DeMet's Candy Company effective May 6, 2013. David L. Wenner, President and Chief Executive Officer of B&G Foods, stated, "We are delighted to welcome TrueNorth to the B&G Foods family. TrueNorth, which offers a 100% natural snacking experience, is the first addition to our snacks portfolio since we entered the category last October by acquiring the New York Style, Old London, JJ Flats and Devonsheer brands." TrueNorth nut clusters combine freshly roasted nuts, a dash of sea salt and just a hint of natural sweetness. Their bite-sized shape makes them ideal for between meal snacking and on the go nourishment. TrueNorth nut clusters are a satisfying, delicious way to experience the goodness of nuts. TrueNorth varieties include: Almond Pecan Crunch, Chocolate Nut Crunch and Cashew Crunch. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. Houlihan Lokey Capital, Inc. served as the investment banking advisor to DeMet's.
Halcon Resources: Drilling For Dollars [View article]
blueice, I am more in your camp about the Utica then I am with investwize999. There have been a number of reports about disappointing results. But the area is still undergoing a lot of developing and exploration and there could be more lucrative sites. I'll hold off taking up a stake in companies with big investments there for now. Faint heart never filled a flush, but I prefer the Eagle Ford, the Bakken, and LINE's prospects in the hog-shotter and granite wash areas at this time.
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
Over the last 40 years the SAUDIS have been able to bring OPEC producing countries under control more by increasing production rather then by decreasing volumes. This has had the effect of reducing the price of oil and the income that they all received, so even if they pumped more then their allotment (cheating) they received less revenue. The question is, how important is OPEC today? With worldwide demand low because of both economic problems and the increase in fuel consumption standards ie. requiring less fuel for more miles, demand is compartively low. However, once economies improve, I personally believe demand will increase far more then many believe today.All one needs to do is look at the world-wide population explosion and the demands that this increase will put on energy companies. The second question is how long will the downturn last? The U.S. has 315,000,000 million people and we use the largest percentage of oil. OK! But what happens if the world-wide population of 7,000,000,000 people use just 1 barrel a year more oil, per person, then today? The numbers become staggering. That's 6,685,000,000 barrels a year more oil then we use today. I sincerely doubt that technology can replace that much increased demand in the next 20 years. And that's just 1 barrel a year increase. 3 barrels a year increase? Can't happen, at least in my opinion.
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
Just an observation: Over the last few months there have been a number of company CEO's asked about a rumored "Huge Find". No one suggests there isn't one but references are being made that they want to get the leases before making it general public knowledge. Apparently it's in California and estimates are it's double the oil of the Bakken and Eagle Ford combined. Unfortunately a federal judge has put a halt to any efforts to drill based upon faulty studies. It was a court case brought by environmental groups opposed to oil. OXY and COP are big players in the leases. If this case is able to be overturned it may mean that the pressure to buy assets in the Bakken would be reduced with more emphasis on Calif. Of course it's all speculation, but isn't that what we do??
Bakken Update: Small Oil And Gas Stock Picks On The Pullback [View article]
Michael, Forecasting prices, with all the worlds economic and political risk along with the monetary problems has never been my forte. People far more astute - (see quote from Bloomberg below) then me have opposite opinions. Put me down in the middle and I'll leave the bottom and top 10% to those far more aggressive. In my opinion nothing drives oil prices more the POLITICS, both domestic and international politics. Why politics? 1) Permitting and the ability for companies to explore for and then develop fields. Putting areas "off-limits" for exploration or development. 2) Internationally like Russia closing down the NG pipeline that supplies Europe recently. 3) Governments fooling around with their curriences. 4) The use of oil as a weapon - withholding supplies. 5) Governments putting sanctions on exporting countries restricting deliveries. 6) Economic conditions that can drive the demand side of the equation. Europe, China, Japan.When these governments get their economies rolling again demand will explode.
>>>WTI Crude Advances for a Second Day as Brent Climbs Above $100 By Grant Smith - Apr 19, 2013 8:53 AM ET West Texas Intermediate crude rosefor a second day to trim its third weekly drop, the longestlosing streak since November. Brent climbed above $100 a barrel. WTI advanced as much as 1.2 percent in New York. Pricesincreased the most in three weeks yesterday after the 14-dayrelative-strength index sank below 30 on April 17, a signal thatthe market is oversold, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Futuresmay decline next week on signs that economic growth is slowing,according to a weekly Bloomberg News survey. “We would expect a rebound,” said Miswin Mahesh, ananalyst at Barclays Plc in London. “This year we’ll see verygood demand growth,” and the seasonal weakness in demand is“something that we think is very transient, very temporary,”he said. WTI for May delivery increased as much as $1.06 to $88.79 abarrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchangeand was at $88.14 at 1:42 p.m. London time. The contract climbed1.2 percent to $87.73 yesterday, the biggest gain since March26. The more actively traded June future was up 39 cents at$88.39 today. Trading in WTI futures was 11 percent above the100-day average. Prices are down 3.5 percent this week and are13 percent lower than a year ago. Brent for June settlement on the London-based ICE FuturesEurope exchange rose as much as $1.20, or 1.2 percent, to$100.33 a barrel. The front-month European benchmark grade wasat a premium of $11.49 to WTI futures. The spread was $10.72 onApril 17, the narrowest closing level since Jan. 25, 2012. Fuel Demand Brent may fall below $95 a barrel in the “near term” ifthe global recovery stalls, and may slide into a range of $90 to$100 if world economic growth weakens to 3 percent from 4percent, Francisco Blanch, the New York-based head ofcommodities research at Bank of America, said in an e-mailedreport yesterday. Brent last traded at $95 in June. Barclays and BNP Paribas SA are among banks that have saidthis week oil’s decline is temporary. WTI rebounded in early March after its relative-strengthindex slid below 30, a technical indication that futures havefallen too quickly and further losses aren’t sustainable.Today’s reading is about 36.2. Thirteen of 27 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloombergforecast WTI will fall through April 26. Eight respondents, or30 percent, predicted an increase. Six said there would belittle change. The International Monetary Fund lowered its global economicgrowth forecasts for 2013 on April 16. The projection for theU.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, was cut to 1.9 percentfrom 2 percent. China, the second-biggest crude user, wasreduced to 8 percent from 8.2 percent. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cutcrude shipments this month as economic weakness constrainsdemand and refiners finish maintenance, Halifax, England-basedOil Movements, a tanker tracker, said yesterday in a report.<<<
Gold performance over the last 174 years compared to stocks and bonds. But I still trade the volatility and keep some physical gold.
>>>Gold performance For those in gold for the long haul, that should be unsettling. Over time, gold's real return averages close to zero:
Asset Average Annual Real Returns, 1838-2012 Stocks---------------- 6.49% Treasury bonds----- 2.77% Gold------------------- 0.46% Source: Deutsche Bank Long-Term Asset Return Study<<<
Marcellus And Utica: Will 2013 Deliver A Major Breakthrough In The Plays' Northern Extension? [View article]
In many of "new areas" the original cost for drilling a well is considerably higher then it will be in future wells. The geology becomes better understood and costs can be dramatically reduced. A look at the Balkken will provide better insight. Wells being drilled up there three years ago cost $2 -$3 million more then, vs. today for the same or similar well. This will speed up the drilling by days and therefore reduce the number of rigs necessary to drill a given number of wells.Perhaps that is what is being talked about when the phrase "ARE PACKING UP" is used.
Bakken Update: Triangle's Blowout Quarter Beats Analyst Earnings Estimates By 43% [View article]
For those interested in statistics the following link may prove interesting. Figure 03: may be of particular concern.
http://bit.ly/ZvZsCZ
Figure 03: The colored bands show total production (production profile for the typical NDIC well multiplied by net added producing wells during the month) added by month and its projected development (left hand scale). The yellow circles show net added producing wells by month (right hand scale). The thick black line shows actual reported production from Bakken (North Dakota) by NDIC (left hand scale).
The model was calibrated to start simulations as of January 2010.
The results from the simulation show that if the wells added as from January 2010 were like the typical well used in recent presentations by NDIC, total production from Bakken (ND) by February 2013 would have been around 1.1 Mb/d.
The thick black line shows actual production from Bakken (ND) reported by NDIC which was 0.7 Mb/d in February 2013.
If the NDIC typical well represented the “average”, the production build up would have been steeper as shown in Figure 03.
This supports earlier findings that the “average” well yields less than what has been reported, and actual well data from NDIC shows that the first year’s production from the average well presently yields around 55% of the typical NDIC well production used in several public presentations.
Pacific Drilling: Strong Growth Potential And Undervalued Relative To Peers [View article]
The depletion curves for shale oil and ng wells is much steeper then conventional wells drilled 20 years ago, not to mention the cost to drill and complete horizontal wells. From a personal perspective, as world populations expand and their standard of living improves oil will be needed more then ever. Wind power?? only if one can accept putting bird populations into extinction. Solar power will be of limited benefit. Nuclear? I'm for it but unfortunately I'm in a minority. What then can replace oil and ng in the next 25 years?
Bakken Update: Triangle's Blowout Quarter Beats Analyst Earnings Estimates By 43% [View article]
Offering objective analysis based upon an understanding of an industry and it's practices isn't, as you suggest, " pumping Bakken stocks". Michael's a big boy and has apparently been in this business a long time and surely doesn't need my help in defending himself, but I sure get tired of people accusing others of "pumping" oil stocks or of "Conspiracy theories" in the silver and gold investing areas.
Frankly, I believe they do so because of a lack of understanding of the businesses. In any event, I sold TPLM last week around $6 for about a fifty cent pop over a three week period. I should have held longer but other opportunities are constantly being presented. Michael has been right more often then wrong, at least in my experience. But there is a simple answer to your suggestion about "Pumping" - take the opposite position.
Life's a crap-shoot. If it was easy everybody would be doing it.
Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
WAGNER or SCHIFF?? They both make reasonable arguments. But only one will be right. Take your pick but for my part I'll let others try to pick a bottom or top. I'll try to follow the trend and take mine out of the middle 80%.
Bakken Update: Kodiak's Purchase Of Liberty Resources Could Make Or Break Its 2013 [View article]
If it ain't one thing it's a half dozen of another.
"If the souring of the Bakken becomes more widespread it could have a big impact on the profitability of higher-cost producers like Kodiak Oil & Gas . Because it costs the company $10 million on average to drill a well, its rates of return are already lower than its peers in the $8 million per well range. Additional costs from hydrogen sulfide mitigation equipment or special pipelines will slow growth and crimp profits."
Hang on boys and girls. The Eagle Ford may become more important since the Utica isn't as "oily" as initially thought.
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
>>>>In the late 70's people stopped buying stocks and bonds and started buying goods and services along with gold and silver. <<<
Question:
Are not stocks in oil companies, mining companies, manufacturing companies, service companies, home building companies, shipping companies, food companies, timber companies, etc all "safe-guards" against inflation as they are all demand driven companies? Hence good investments to keep up with perceived inflation?
Silver: Is This The 'Last' Decline? [View article]
Several months ago, with silver in the $29 - $30 range you suggested a pull-back to the $25 area or so. I followed this "timing"suggestion and got out of my "Paper Holdings" in silver and gold for which I posted that the reason I got out was at your suggestion. Not unusual for me because I've been doing this for well over 50 years, although my primary interest is in oil , natural gas, and oil service companies. I've mentioned here and other sites that nothing drives prices like world and domestic politics. The reason being that politics drive supply demand issues, which in turn influences emotional reactions. The two emotions are one, fear of losing what one has gained or two, fear of missing out on the gains in a rising market. There are always conspiracy excuses about what drives prices. One that's been around for several years is that JPM has been holding a huge hoard of silver and has been using that hoard to drive prices to excessive highs, and then lows. Emotional rhetoric.Romors can drive emotions which, in turn drive price moves. To me and my trading philosophy, follow "fear" generating news and then try to see how big the EMOTIONAL factor may be and trade accordingly.
9 Top Consumer Goods Dogs Pursue 3.8% To 38% Gains In April [View article]
"PARSIPPANY, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 07, 2013--
B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE: BGS) announced today that it has acquired the TrueNorth nut cluster brand from DeMet's Candy Company effective May 6, 2013.
David L. Wenner, President and Chief Executive Officer of B&G Foods, stated, "We are delighted to welcome TrueNorth to the B&G Foods family. TrueNorth, which offers a 100% natural snacking experience, is the first addition to our snacks portfolio since we entered the category last October by acquiring the New York Style, Old London, JJ Flats and Devonsheer brands."
TrueNorth nut clusters combine freshly roasted nuts, a dash of sea salt and just a hint of natural sweetness. Their bite-sized shape makes them ideal for between meal snacking and on the go nourishment. TrueNorth nut clusters are a satisfying, delicious way to experience the goodness of nuts. TrueNorth varieties include: Almond Pecan Crunch, Chocolate Nut Crunch and Cashew Crunch.
Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. Houlihan Lokey Capital, Inc. served as the investment banking advisor to DeMet's.
Halcon Resources: Drilling For Dollars [View article]
There have been a number of reports about disappointing results. But the area is still undergoing a lot of developing and exploration and there could be more lucrative sites. I'll hold off taking up a stake in companies with big investments there for now. Faint heart never filled a flush, but I prefer the Eagle Ford, the Bakken, and LINE's prospects in the hog-shotter and granite wash areas at this time.
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
OSG has a few smaller ones.
See link below
http://bit.ly/16DwIfo
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
The second question is how long will the downturn last? The U.S. has 315,000,000 million people and we use the largest percentage of oil. OK! But what happens if the world-wide population of 7,000,000,000 people use just 1 barrel a year more oil, per person, then today? The numbers become staggering. That's 6,685,000,000 barrels a year more oil then we use today. I sincerely doubt that technology can replace that much increased demand in the next 20 years. And that's just 1 barrel a year increase. 3 barrels a year increase? Can't happen, at least in my opinion.
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
Over the last few months there have been a number of company CEO's asked about a rumored "Huge Find". No one suggests there isn't one but references are being made that they want to get the leases before making it general public knowledge. Apparently it's in California and estimates are it's double the oil of the Bakken and Eagle Ford combined. Unfortunately a federal judge has put a halt to any efforts to drill based upon faulty studies. It was a court case brought by environmental groups opposed to oil. OXY and COP are big players in the leases. If this case is able to be overturned it may mean that the pressure to buy assets in the Bakken would be reduced with more emphasis on Calif. Of course it's all speculation, but isn't that what we do??
Bakken Update: Small Oil And Gas Stock Picks On The Pullback [View article]
Forecasting prices, with all the worlds economic and political risk along with the monetary problems has never been my forte. People far more astute - (see quote from Bloomberg below) then me have opposite opinions. Put me down in the middle and I'll leave the bottom and top 10% to those far more aggressive.
In my opinion nothing drives oil prices more the POLITICS, both domestic and international politics.
Why politics?
1) Permitting and the ability for companies to explore for and then develop fields. Putting areas "off-limits" for exploration or development.
2) Internationally like Russia closing down the NG pipeline that supplies Europe recently.
3) Governments fooling around with their curriences.
4) The use of oil as a weapon - withholding supplies.
5) Governments putting sanctions on exporting countries restricting deliveries.
6) Economic conditions that can drive the demand side of the equation. Europe, China, Japan.When these governments get their economies rolling again demand will explode.
>>>WTI Crude Advances for a Second Day as Brent Climbs Above $100 By Grant Smith - Apr 19, 2013 8:53 AM ET
West Texas Intermediate crude rosefor a second day to trim its third weekly drop, the longestlosing streak since November. Brent climbed above $100 a barrel.
WTI advanced as much as 1.2 percent in New York. Pricesincreased the most in three weeks yesterday after the 14-dayrelative-strength index sank below 30 on April 17, a signal thatthe market is oversold, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Futuresmay decline next week on signs that economic growth is slowing,according to a weekly Bloomberg News survey.
“We would expect a rebound,” said Miswin Mahesh, ananalyst at Barclays Plc in London. “This year we’ll see verygood demand growth,” and the seasonal weakness in demand is“something that we think is very transient, very temporary,”he said.
WTI for May delivery increased as much as $1.06 to $88.79 abarrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchangeand was at $88.14 at 1:42 p.m. London time. The contract climbed1.2 percent to $87.73 yesterday, the biggest gain since March26. The more actively traded June future was up 39 cents at$88.39 today. Trading in WTI futures was 11 percent above the100-day average. Prices are down 3.5 percent this week and are13 percent lower than a year ago.
Brent for June settlement on the London-based ICE FuturesEurope exchange rose as much as $1.20, or 1.2 percent, to$100.33 a barrel. The front-month European benchmark grade wasat a premium of $11.49 to WTI futures. The spread was $10.72 onApril 17, the narrowest closing level since Jan. 25, 2012. Fuel Demand
Brent may fall below $95 a barrel in the “near term” ifthe global recovery stalls, and may slide into a range of $90 to$100 if world economic growth weakens to 3 percent from 4percent, Francisco Blanch, the New York-based head ofcommodities research at Bank of America, said in an e-mailedreport yesterday. Brent last traded at $95 in June.
Barclays and BNP Paribas SA are among banks that have saidthis week oil’s decline is temporary.
WTI rebounded in early March after its relative-strengthindex slid below 30, a technical indication that futures havefallen too quickly and further losses aren’t sustainable.Today’s reading is about 36.2.
Thirteen of 27 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloombergforecast WTI will fall through April 26. Eight respondents, or30 percent, predicted an increase. Six said there would belittle change.
The International Monetary Fund lowered its global economicgrowth forecasts for 2013 on April 16. The projection for theU.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, was cut to 1.9 percentfrom 2 percent. China, the second-biggest crude user, wasreduced to 8 percent from 8.2 percent.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cutcrude shipments this month as economic weakness constrainsdemand and refiners finish maintenance, Halifax, England-basedOil Movements, a tanker tracker, said yesterday in a report.<<<
Gold Is Worth $370 An Ounce [View article]
>>>Gold performance
For those in gold for the long haul, that should be unsettling. Over time, gold's real return averages close to zero:
Asset Average Annual Real Returns, 1838-2012
Stocks---------------- 6.49%
Treasury bonds----- 2.77%
Gold------------------- 0.46%
Source: Deutsche Bank Long-Term Asset Return Study<<<
Marcellus And Utica: Will 2013 Deliver A Major Breakthrough In The Plays' Northern Extension? [View article]