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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    10 years ago I had a few rental units within walking distance of a college. I rented to Chinese students getting Master's and PHD's in computer science. They put mattresses on the floor and had little tables with goose-neck lamps attached. They were either in their room syuding or at classes. This went on for 6 years . When one moved out another moved in and they rarely complained unless the stove or refergrator went out. I also had some American kids. There was absolutely no comparision in the way the two groups attacked their studies. From my experience, the Chinesse are crushing us in many areas of technology. This is not to say that we don't have great kids that can compete anywhere - just not enough of them. China's got us outnumbered 4 - 1 from the get-go.
    Just something to consider when we get hit from computer hacks.
    Dec 22, 2014. 08:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    ITOver the last couple of months I have started to buy a few BRITISH GOLD SOVEREIGNS. I expect silver to do much better then gold but it probably has a few more months of small up and down moves. I know that this sounds inconsistant because I like silver better then gold but for my personal physical holdings I want some smaller demonitions and the Sovereigns, about .23 ounce of gold per coin meet that requirement. There are reports that Russia is selling gold. Silver could also be liquidated but I have no information about Russia selling silver although I see no reason for them not to if they are selling gold. The problem with physical gold or silver is that if one has to liquidate he'll take about a 20% - 30% discount. I'll buy the SLV once it gets above $19 for a few days. YEP!! I know, I'll leave a couple of bucks on the table but I have several other ideas in place until the metals show some sustained upward movement.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    ITThe Markets?? I have no idea. I'm interested in commodity companies, oil, metals, and some REIT'S and BDC's.I have a friend that wanted me to go into the Tech's with him. I didn't and he's up in the 8 figure's over the last 18 months while I'm still trying to do what I do and having some trouble here. I do think the oils are, or soon will be, at a bottom. World wide economies are doing poorly but U.S. production is running at about 103% over domestic demand. Spring driving will be coming up in a few months and with increased driving this excess 3% of domestic production will be used up quickly, especially with the decreased drilling expected, based upon permits requested. Once Europe and China start to show improvement the commodities will take off. VLCC tanker day rates are up a lot today because China and some other countries are gobbling up all the cheap oil they can get right now. I sold a major holding, SDRL, because they cut the dividend and because of their relationship with Russia. I bought VNR, LNCO, PSEC and HRZN with the money.
    So the markets in general - I have no idea. Commodities, I believe, are at or will soon be reaching a bottom, hence I've started moving into them again.
    Dec 20, 2014. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Distributions About To Get Slashed? [View article]
    Dec 19, 2014. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Distributions About To Get Slashed? [View article]
    I did add a little LNCO on Wednesday but have been buying more VNR. I feel both will weather this storm and want to take advantage of these prices knowing full well that they could pull back. However, I don't think this crap will last thru summer of 2015. I just have more LNCO then VNR so am trying an adjustment.
    Dec 19, 2014. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    I sure understand. I bought a little yesterday around $10.80 putting my average cost at around $25.00. Got a looong way to go to get even. I shake my head because I usually bail on a stock if it drops 10%. Ask myself every day why I didn't sell at around $22. Getting old and making mistakes, so will just stick around and hope for the best. What's done is done, so now the question is - what's next???
    SANDMAN SAID >>>Walking away from one of the sale deals was my main worry. Now that it has been announced completed, I have bought more LNCO unfortunately in the 11.89 range and not the 10 or even 8.90 range I could have if I had paid more attention. oh well. <<<
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    Fact is - it's the "PERCEPTION" that counts, not the reality!!
    Therefore, what the FED does/says really has an affect on the market. Fight it if you will, or don't. The market will do what it wants and sometimes - often - overshoots a reasonable mark based upon nothing more then EMOTION. Recognizing the direction is difficult in real time - after the move, everyone becomes an expert.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Distributions About To Get Slashed? [View article]
    It's entirely possible that I missed it, but I didn't see anything about the nearly $2,000,000,000 that they received from the closing of granite Wash etc. Much of this is to be used to pay off debt, so the calculations should change and have a more optimistic theme. How Much?? I have no idea but there were numerous posts about Granite Wash and others not closing.
    Dec 17, 2014. 01:10 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum Should Walk Away From Kodiak Acquisition [View article]
    Drilling up-date Dec. 11, 2014

    Seems permits and new starts are tanking.
    Gonna' be tough in the "patch" for a while.

    >>> U.S. energy companies are wasting little time in starting to cut drilling, jobs and spending in the wake of declining oil prices, WSJ reports.
    In recent days, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) said it would spend 20% less next year on drilling wells; EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) said it would shed many of its Canadian oil and gas fields, close its Calgary office and lay off employees; and Matador Resources (NYSE:MTDR) said it may temporarily leave the Eagle Ford Shale area in Texas, where drilling recently fell to 190 rigs after hitting 210 rigs in July.
    Analysts say companies with a lot of debt, low rates of return and little chance of drilling their way to better profitability, such as Triangle Petroleum (NYSEMKT:TPLM), will be hurt if crude remains below $75/bbl.
    "A contraction is unavoidable,” says an economist for the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers.<<<
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Is The Market Pricing In A Distribution Cut? [View article]
    >> but feels like something more manipulative than simple supply and demand imbalance! <<
    GAD! I hear this all the time about every commodity traded on any market. Please explain how oil is "manipulated". Sure, OPEC, Governments, traders, hedge funds, big users of oil - airlines, truckers, etc. have an influence but if one examines the issue often times they are at variance with each other which smooth's out the curve. User's want lower prices and producing countries and producers want higher prices and in a trade that does 10's of billions of dollars a day how can one individual have a sizeable influence? Yes, I guess one can say there could be "manipulation" but I surely don't see it like the manipulation that the Hunt Brothers did with silver and in which the Federal Government along with exchanges changed the rules in mid-stream and nearly broke the family and from which they have never recovered. How is trading oil today any different then it was for 100 years with the exception of OPEC? Yes, Roosevelt did stop Japan from importing oil which was a major cause for Pearl Harbor, so there have been a few instances of it throughout the last 100 years. And of course over the years OPEC has been losing influence. "Manipulation" is an often used term to explain something that writers have no clear explanation for and why it's happening. Clearly, I believe that the term "MANUPLITION" is just used as an excuse, and nothing else, whether it's in oil, gold, silver, copper, cocoa, corn, or pork bellies.
    Dec 7, 2014. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum Should Walk Away From Kodiak Acquisition [View article]
    RIP, The following was from a Dec. 2014 article from REUTERS.
    4,520 vs.7,227. seems like a big drop to me.

    >>>(Reuters) - Plunging oil prices sparked a drop of almost 40 percent in new well permits issued across the United States in November, in a sudden pause in the growth of the U.S. shale oil and gas boom that started around 2007.

    Data provided exclusively to Reuters on Tuesday by industry data firm Drilling Info Inc showed 4,520 new well permits were approved last month, down from 7,227 in October.

    The pullback was a "very quick response" to U.S. crude prices, which settled on Tuesday at $66.88 CLc1, said Allen Gilmer, chief executive officer of Drilling Info.

    New permits, which indicate what drilling rigs will be doing 60-90 days in the future, showed steep declines for the first time this year across the top three U.S. onshore fields: the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford in Texas and North Dakota's Bakken shale.

    The Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico showed a 38 percent decline in new oil and gas well permits last month, while the Eagle Ford and Bakken permit counts fell 28 percent and 29 percent, respectively, the data showed.<<<
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum Should Walk Away From Kodiak Acquisition [View article]
    Permits for drilling were down 40% in November.
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum Should Walk Away From Kodiak Acquisition [View article]
    Your hypothesis is based upon crude prices remaining where they are.
    I've been involved in investing in energy for nearly 60 years and have been down this cyclical road a goodly number of times. One should expect a large drop in capex spending and a drop in rigs. Yes, contracts are curently in place and drilling will continue for some months but during this period marginal companies will probably go bankrupt. Companies in the Eagleford and Bakken are looking to reduce drilling and a number of companies have already announced this effort. Lower prices always increases demand so I expect the cuirrent 400,000 barrel a day excess to dry up in the next 6 - 12 months and oil going back up to the $80 - $90 range by summer. $100 oil is very possible in the next 12+ months. How do I know this? I don't! But as I said these cycles repeat every few years. $140 oil dropped to $35 a barrel a few years ago in just a few months and recovered to $90 a couple of months later on it's way back to $115. I just base my guess on history. It usually repeats itself.
    Dec 3, 2014. 06:28 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From Seadrill [View article]
    I fully expected Fredericksen to have learned from the Frontline debacle of overbuilding. I suggested my concern of his overbuilding drilling rigs starting at least 18 months ago. He did the same thing with VLCC tankers. But it's also true that I didn't expect crude to fall to these levels. Crude below $80 is tough to handle. At these prices it will be difficult for the shale oil E&P's to be profitable with new wells. However, according to the NAT CEO, day rates for suezmax tankers are increasing nicely. Lower oil prices always create more demand. How long this drop lasts and where it recovers to is where the right guess can make one a bundle of money. As for me, I'm left a bit "shell-shocked". Sure everybody will now come out and say they "saw it coming". It will be interesting to look back at past posts and see who really did anticipate the drop, to what levels, and when.
    Nov 28, 2014. 08:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Fears Of A Distribution Cut Are Way Overblown [View article]
    The head of ISIS, just a couple of days ago, was encouraging their followers to attack the Saudis. A couple of small attacks or one large attack on Saudi oil infrastructure will, in my opinion, raise crude $10 in the blink of an eye. &gt;&gt; PS: The Shia Iranians hate the Sunni Saudis. Don't be surprised if the manure hits the fan in the Persian Gulf. All these OPEC guys need $100 oil desperately.<<<
    Nov 26, 2014. 02:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment