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chaodonghe

chaodonghe
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  • China's plan for short-term pain leading to long-term gain is dubbed Likonomics - for Premier Li Keqiang - by Barclays, who says it's just what's needed to put the country's economy on a sustainable path of 6-8% growth for the next decade. Unfortunately for the short term, the plan's 3 pillars - no stimulus, deleveraging, and structural reform - mean a "temporary hard landing" of economic growth of just 3% sometime soon. Shanghai (FXI, CAF) was flat overnight, and is off nearly 15% YTD. [View news story]
    From the news I read on Chinese media, this plan is welcomed by regular persons but it is strongly opposed by Elite group.
    Jul 2 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Physical Gold Vs. Paper Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect [View article]
    None in China in 1974. It was not allowed at that time to have gold. The gold market opens to regular Joe after 1978. Gold represents class one belongs to.
    Apr 26 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Record Physical Demand And A Short-Covering Rally, GLD Still Bleeding Assets [View article]
    There is no central bank going to sell gold on spot market. That is not the way countries doing business.

    The huge physical buyers are setting up a floor for gold price. If gold price come down near 1300 again, the physical buyers will emerge. Once the physical gold is taking away from the market, it simply disappears into people's safe. Usually, people will not exchange gold for money if he is not in some kind of problem.

    Total amount of known gold on this planet is very limited. Only a few gram per person.

    I think, the gold price will hold up.

    Momo crowd is right this time.

    Buying Gold Miners are also a way to buy hard assets. Gold miners have mines and land with gold, these are all hard assets. They are on sale in the next few weeks and it would be a buy of generation.
    Apr 26 05:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Happening To Gold? Has It Hit Bottom? [View article]
    You are wrong.

    I know what you mean but gold is different from other assets. When "morons" buy gold, they will hoard it for generations. Then the bought gold is gone, it would not be re-sold any time soon. Just like it is consumed. So this will reflect in the price.

    Physical gold market is a true demand and supply market.
    Apr 25 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Invest If China Is A Bubble [View article]
    Give me a break. If China is a bubble, SPX is a double bubble.

    Jim Chanos will bankrupt himself if he short China stock.
    Apr 25 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Gold Stocks Oversold? [View article]
    The reason I said gold bottom is at 1200 is that,
    1. Most gold miners production cost is above 1200.
    2, The physical demand in China for gold is huge. China itself may consume 1000 Tons of gold a year if the price is dropped under 1300.
    The reason is because of inflation hedge(the government would not allow people to buy second home otherwise, when you sell it, you pay 20% income tax). And on the news, there was a gold rush last week when gold price was lower. And lot of gold retailers have physically sold out. Lot of people are buying gold by Kilo. and there was a retail, there were so many people rushing into the store, they broke the front gate.

    The world production of gold a year is barely 3000 Ton/year
    Apr 24 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Gold Stocks Oversold? [View article]
    You are wrong. Do not look at the junior gold minors. The gold price will be in a range between 1200 and 1400 (+- 100) for the next few months or years. Once gold price is doing range bouncing, gold stock will find its bottom. Big guys will start cutting cost and less merger will happen till the previous mergers are fully digested.

    From now on, any dip in gold price will be a buying opportunity for gold miners. GDX and XGD.to are the easiest choices. GDXJ, I am not so sure, junior miners have to wait for next cycle.
    Apr 24 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
    Hahaha,

    You are running naked.

    :)
    Apr 22 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Gold Go? [View article]
    In lot of Chinese southern cities where most of rich Chinese are living, the gold stores are sold out. People have to make reserve and wait for the next delivery.

    US residence do not hoard gold at home because the inflation is not too bad. But in China and also the developing countries where the US$ flushed into ( for example, when China sell 1$ goods to US, it will have to print 6.25 Yuan internally to balance the book), the inflation is high. The only place China can digest the large amount of US$ reserve is to buy food, resources and high tech
    from US(So China can pay US$ back to US and recollect 6.25Yuan by selling these food, resources etc).

    You are not seeing huge inflation in US is because the trade unbalance. China will go after the resources when the price is down.
    Apr 19 05:41 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Consolidates Before Big Move, Price Doubles From Year Ago [View article]
    What a surprise. It would go up, it would go down. It would never go flat.
    Apr 9 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Spikes Above $4 As Surplus Plunges Again, Prices Poised To Surge Higher [View article]
    I sold my position when it was at 3.96. No reason to chase this ending rally. Just wait for pull back. The current price would not last for more than 4 weeks.
    Mar 22 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is Rallying - Time To Buy Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Natural Gas will pull back in spring(April and May) when the weather is not cold and not warm. I think it is time to watch as the overall market will likely sell off around April and May as well.

    It is my 2 cents. This is a very overbought market.
    Mar 19 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold Forecasts Could Lead To Bullish Reports For The Next 4 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Reports [View article]
    I sold out my CA:HNU today.

    I think UNG(CA:HNU) will continue go up but I am just scared to loss my profit so. I booked it and wait for next pull back.

    UNG would not go straight up. The weather could change unexpectedly.
    Mar 19 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation And Yields: The Gold Standard Is Dead, Long Live The Gold Standard [View article]
    I think I may be too stupid to understand what you are talking about.

    Anybody understands what this guy is saying?
    Mar 7 07:26 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Expect From China ETFs Post-Lunar New Year [View article]
    In Chinese culture, people always like to have a good start. A good start on the first day of a new year, and n the first week of the new year usually boost people's confidence.
    Feb 8 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
100 Comments
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