Pranjay Kaushal

Preparing for the Dollar's Next Down Cycle

Hi,
Few observations,
1) One can also look at CADJPY pair in relation to the Oil prices, both being the commodity currencies with CAD having high oil exports, and Japan being net high oil importer (99% of oil consumption imported), the pair can be used to suit one's own style of trading.
2) However commodities prices and industrial demand can be dubious indicator for one that existing inventories have reduced for the last quarter which saw less industrial production, so this might be temporary increase in production levels compared to previous months' low base (effect).
3) The retail sales ex-auto sales would rather give more accurate and sustained answer to the questions sighted above, the unemployment numbers also give a clearer picture.

But at this time I would still be wary of buying aggressively in stocks, I don't know: gut feeling or due to the gloom and doom all around!
One reason for this is that stocks have run a huge % since March lows far from justifying their forward earnings for this and next year-visibility for which is still cloudy.
Any comments?