Robert Weinstein's Comments

Sell Zynga: User Interest On The Decline

Mon, 16 Jul 2012 18:34:40 -0400

I am a noted bear with both $FB and $ZNGA but the data doesn't support the conclusion. Using the charts for analysis is like driving using your rear view mirror.

It's summer time folks, of course usage is going to be down. If anything I believe the charts as presented in this article support a bullish argument for both.

That said, I am still bearish, but lets keep opinion based on enough data to support a conclusion. A review and subsequent opinion of two months usage during a season change is full of peril.

Homebuilders Lennar, KB Homes Report Earnings The Week Of June 25

Sun, 24 Jun 2012 14:55:38 -0400

what makes "smart money" smart is short sellers are typically much more sophisticated and correct more often compared to longs.

Lexmark International Stock Option Hedged Dividend Capture

Sun, 13 May 2012 21:07:17 -0400

Hello Outcast,

Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts.

There are some things that you missed or are not necessarily correct depending on one's situation.
1. yes, we can predict with various sigmas what the decay will likely be.
2. there is evidence to suggest this is not true for all stocks, BUT overall an equal drop is calculated in.
3. option all else being equal WILL drop by an amount equal to the dividend, not half as you suggest (I don't know where you get the 50% from, you can look at the chain and view the theta.)
4. worst case you could have four commissions, but this is where things really can become night and day. I pay very little commissions as well as most professional investors. If I get exercised I pay zero commission. size has no real factor in my commissions, BUT of course this can vary widely.

This is not a simple strategy for everyone. It requires a level of sophistication and understanding of options to make it work. If an investor is paying high commissions it certainly changes the situation.

Rocco Pendola Option Newsletter which I contribute weekly option captures and techniques goes much further into the subject. I am also going to have a live webinar next month. I will go into detail how it's done and what to avoid etc.. I also have my trading journal where you can review past captures that I do from time to time. paid2trade.com

Best to you

Lexmark International Stock Option Hedged Dividend Capture

Fri, 11 May 2012 23:29:39 -0400

Hello Ad,

Thanks for reading and it's a good question. I use price, dividend, beta, IV, time to ex-dividend, time to expiration, price relative to moving averages for most of the criteria to develop the amount.

I have done it enough now that I can "back of the envelope" get close

Apple, Intel, Protalix: Learning Lessons With Options

Thu, 03 May 2012 09:13:27 -0400

Billy,

You're finding out what a lot of people find out in the same way, although usually through earnings releases. You should take a long hard look at Rocco's newsletter. I believe if you had suscribed you would have known what to expect with the options with any given price move. Knowing what to expect based on a given underlying move would allow you to best position for your goals and risk tolerance.

This sorta feels like an ad, which I don't mind writing because I know how many benefit from the newsletter, and your comment indicates you are an ideal candidate to really ramp up your option knowledge.

Maybe ask Rocco for a sample copy, I would bet he will provide you with one.

Book Review: How Markets Really Work: A Quantitative Guide To Stock Market Behavior

Wed, 02 May 2012 23:06:20 -0400

LOL, thanks....

Glad you did well with RIMM, I recently faded UNG as well by selling May $15 puts. They are nicely in the green (cost basis is a little over 80 cents), but I am feeling greedy with this one. Will likely hold and see if UNG moves back under $16 before worrying about covering.

I am watching RIMM also after the "gloom" of OS10 hit the market.

Best to you

Robert

Apple, Intel, Protalix: Learning Lessons With Options

Wed, 02 May 2012 19:58:04 -0400

$INTC

Hey Stretch,

I just wrote up a book review that goes into great detail of what the numbers are for a stock that has gone down or up three days in a row.

There are other qualifiers, but in a nutshell you are on to something with the selling INTC puts after three down days.

http://seekingalpha.co...

Apple, Intel, Protalix: Learning Lessons With Options

Wed, 02 May 2012 19:09:17 -0400

How about this track record:
#1 in options (plus ranked highly in others)
Articles (705)
Instablog (51)
StockTalks (1,082)
Comments (6,014)
4,029 Followers

vs.

a few comments
0 followers

Rocco has gained more followers while out riding his bike than most gain their whole time on SA. I guess they all could in error for following him.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I am glad to be following him and gain a lot of insight as a result.

Apple, Intel, Protalix: Learning Lessons With Options

Wed, 02 May 2012 17:40:13 -0400

"It's akin to taking the Leafs over the Canucks on a Saturday night." - When betting on hockey games, it all comes down to having a good handicapper.

Buy Sirius XM Radio Or Become Cramer's Boss For $2, The Choice Is Yours

Tue, 01 May 2012 02:24:27 -0400

Upset,

ahhhh, sorry I didn't follow the first time. I contribute and co/founded his newsletter, but I don't recall SIRI coming up since January when it started.

If you do sign up you get to look through all the newsletters that "printed" and you could verify. I will likely chat with Rocco either Tomorrow or Wednesday and ask if I remember.

Regardless if he has or has not, I can say that Rocco does not play any games and is not out to make a quick buck. I personally know of (legal) offers presented to him he turned down because of his high ethical standards.

Rocco just went over 4000 followers today because he is a great communicator, but also because he is honest and you can see it come through in his writing.

Buy Sirius XM Radio Or Become Cramer's Boss For $2, The Choice Is Yours

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 22:06:17 -0400

$SIRI $P $TST
The jury comes back everyday with a verdict until the trade is exited and so far Cameron kaine has come back a big winner

Buy Sirius XM Radio Or Become Cramer's Boss For $2, The Choice Is Yours

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 22:04:19 -0400

Hi Upset,

Good question. I think it's smart to always question everyone's motive.

You may find it interesting that I am one of the most transparent people you will find on SA. I have a chat room that I have been in pretty much every day for the last five or so years. I call out all my trades often in advance.

The other thing about my trading is that I am very mechanical with almost all my trades (most of what I do is short term) based on TA. I basically do the same thing over and over again. People in the chat room become so familiar with my trading they point out stocks that I may want to trade.

Wireless Internet Will Continue To Be A Rock In The Shoes Of Sirius, DISH And DirecTV

Sat, 28 Apr 2012 16:56:11 -0400

Yes I would agree streaming on a phone is more expensive if you have a dataplan only for a replacement of your $SIRI listening.

However, I believe most people who have or will get a smartphone will also get a dataplan. $S for example offers unlimited and works great, at least for me.

As a result if you compare an $AAPL iPhone from Sprint (a common example) the costs are actually lower than having a Sirius subscription

Wireless Internet Will Continue To Be A Rock In The Shoes Of Sirius, DISH And DirecTV

Sat, 28 Apr 2012 16:50:06 -0400

Naked,

Right, good point and it's why I brought it up. When thinking in terms of what $SIRI is likely to be valued at sometimes it's good to not use the stock price, but rather the market cap.

Asking questions like "do I believe this could turn into a $16 billion dollar company" is a useful exercise that can be lost in the mix.

Best to you

Robert

Buy Sirius XM Radio Or Become Cramer's Boss For $2, The Choice Is Yours

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 13:11:14 -0400

Hi StockNewb,

I wrote an article in response to your question about $SIRI $DISH $DTV. You can find it here http://seekingalpha.co...

Buy Sirius XM Radio Or Become Cramer's Boss For $2, The Choice Is Yours

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 18:30:14 -0400

I have no idea one way or the other. I talk with Rocco all the time because of his options newsletter which is doing great. Even so, I don't really talk to Rocco about stock positions however.

My understanding (only from what I read on SA) is Cameron is a longer term holder than me. A pretty safe assumption though because I rarely hold for more than a month. I opened a positions in several accounts with TST and will likely do the same with SIRI. I love using P, but no interest in investing (other than maybe a day trade etc..) long term before the next earnings release.

Buy Sirius XM Radio Or Become Cramer's Boss For $2, The Choice Is Yours

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 14:24:06 -0400

Thanks Cameron,

Not to get to far off the subject, but I would like to congratulate you on your outstanding call with Apple!!

While others had fear in their eyes and sold into the uncertainty you stood up and said "$1000 Apple here we come"

It took the right amount of guts and brains to do it.

I bought TST today. I like it for a longer term play. The best part is that it's so discounted from where I beleive it should be. If you assembled the current team and started it as an IPO the stock would be much higher in my opinion. Siri is nice for covered call writing until it's not.

Surviving The Netflix Implosion: What's Next?

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 01:10:48 -0400

Petra,

Thanks for reading and your comment. I guess I have always "liked" Netflix for what it is (highly limited) for the price.

We are on the same page with documentaries and foreign films. That's the majority of what I watch.

I don't fully share your thought about their are no better alternatives. There may or may not be for you and I, but for a lot of people who are willing to pay more there is. I believe there are lots of people paying a lot more than you or I do who would be willing to buy more from Netflix

On another hand maybe it's a good thing at least in my house. It helps me keep my sons off the TV. Now if I can get them to put the darn DSis down I really will make some progress....

Earnings Preview: Ford Reports Results Friday

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 00:58:44 -0400

Queasyrider, I am not bearish with F

In fact I have worked on a bullish article today on and off. I welcome you to look at my F article history as well.

The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 2

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 23:08:18 -0400

JD nice job.

Glad to see you on board with SA!!

The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 1

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 23:06:18 -0400

Good work JD !!!!

Welcome to SA. I look forward to reading more of your article soon.

Why Apple May Not Dominate China

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 16:18:13 -0400

Ken,

Ok, well maybe you saw real iPhones (or not it doesn't matter). If you wish to believe 70 million phones are going to be sold in the market that is perfectly fine and your choice.

Best of luck and I hope it works out well for you.

Why Apple May Not Dominate China

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 16:08:26 -0400

Wei,

well you make some interesting points but demand <> profits. You need to look no further than the music industry to see that. Microsoft is in China also but their profits are likely less than half what they should be.

Doesn't matter, my point is to not expect 70 million iPhones being sold. Not sure how the message was lost, but I will try better next time.

Why Apple May Not Dominate China

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 16:03:38 -0400

Sorry but its not a detail.

You may be better served with a focus on the main concept of selling 70 million phones. Of course it's your choice what you believe is important.

Surviving The Netflix Implosion: What's Next?

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:38:09 -0400

you will likely get some type of dead cat bounce either tomorrow or the next day. I will be looking starting tomorrow to enter long myself for a quick hit and run.

Surviving The Netflix Implosion: What's Next?

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:37:13 -0400

Like Vandeley states, IV drops like a rock after earnings. I generally try to position with a credit spread or at least a debit spread with options into earnings. Especially when the premium is so sky high.

In fact I am looking at various spreads with $AAPL right now but taking a break.

Book Review: Trading VIX Derivatives Trading And Hedging Strategies Using VIX Futures, Options And Exchange-Traded Notes

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 14:11:33 -0400

Yeah, I am such an options geek that I love reading this stuff. If I get one idea out of a book and am totally happy. This may not be the easiest read, but it is packed full of useful ideas.

Why Apple May Not Dominate China

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 08:46:24 -0400

$AAPL $GOOG $RIMM
darekz, Right, I guess you know better with the non retina screens and memory etc...
http://bit.ly/IkNjnq

GooApple V5 Specification

- Same retina screen like iPhone 4S, 960*640 pixel
- Support GSM network, quad-band
- Support WiFi, Bluetooth, GPS
- Android 2.3 OS, iPhone interface
- Support multi-language

http://bit.ly/JCE2MO and a lot more of them. Not sure what part you guys are missing, but ok. no worries. Thanks for taking the other side of my trades.

Its good to hear Chinese don't confuse real products for fake or subpar products. This would be news to me.
http://nyti.ms/IkNjnz
http://bo.st/JCE4nO
http://bit.ly/IkNjDP

I don't have the time to educate each one of the "experts" on Chinese business.
Anyway, the article is about China not selling 70 million phones, but you go ahead and believe it if you want.

For those that took something of value from the article, Thanks for reading and best to you. For those that didn't, thanks for reading and best to you as well.

Why Apple May Not Dominate China

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 00:23:18 -0400

Hey Gary,

Glad to see you're still following me. It's been a while since you criticized one of my articles. I started to think you stopped stalking me.

Well maybe you are correct. Maybe Apple will sell 70 million, who knows. After all you lived there so you should know, right?

Best of luck to you Gary and thanks for reading my article.

Why Apple May Not Dominate China

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 23:39:23 -0400

darekz, Really? I guess someone forgot to tell these guys.

http://bit.ly/JmIOud

http://bit.ly/InvcBq

http://bit.ly/JmIOug