Don't trust this rally; it's a major bull trap, says currency analyst Christopher Vecchio. Pressures on global financial markets are too intense to support a sustained run in stocks right now. All it will take is just a few gusts of negativity to derail the entire train. [View news story]
Looking at the pattern it is a bear market rally, it too shall pass and the market shall go down more. Expect choppy action for a week or two and then the drop should resume.
Many people have been surprised by the strong stock rally this month, because the underlying economic data remain mixed. Analysts who follow election-year behavior have seen this before, with the overall pattern similar to the average performance in past congressional election years when market conditions were similar to today's. [View news story]
Can you say POMO... $20B pumped into the market by the PPT last week. Very little to do with the elcetion cycle. 20 weeks of retail investors departing. Inside traders are pulling out. Only the HFT Algos and Fed Juicing are keeping the patient alive.
Only question left is how long can they keep it going. Next POMO sched for Tuesday and Thursday.
In Spite of Pre-Order Failures, iPhone 4 Sells Out in Under a Day [View article]
A contrarian opinion... problems in the ordering system generate more news about how high demand is than a press release saying we just sold X million iPhones would.
We can say it looks bad for ATT all we want. In truth it elicits and strengthens public desire for the new product.
Our office just upgraded to Microsoft Office 2007. It sucks, moved menus changed all kinds of crap and buggy as hell. A coworker just mailed a WORD file to me because his computer was refusing to print it across the LAN... it took me five minutes of fiddling with the document (not printer settings) to get it to work.
If I was allowed to, I'd get rid of MICROSOFT in my workplace.
How about people starting to deal with the idea that it may have been real? Some Wave theorists have discounted it, but others are using it as part of the market pattern. Time will tell us who is write as the overall market pattern plays out.
I think we are coming out of a bear market rally and returning to the biggest bear since the great depression... VXX should establish a new record high as this plays out. If you want to trade on the ups and downs, so be it, I am holding mine for now as I think the slide has just begun.
Market recap: It wasn't as stomach-churning as yesterday's wild ride, but stocks sagged throughout the afternoon on volume of nearly 10B shares. For the week, the Dow tumbled 5.7%, the S&P slid 6.4% - worst showings since March 2009 - and the Nasdaq plunged 8%, biggest drop since November 2008. NYSE decliners outnumbered advancers by 4 to 1. [View news story]
The jobs numbers shown today are a tragedy. The Orwellian doublespeak going on is incredible. Unemployment went up, both U-3 and U-6 and all the talking heads are trying to tell us that's good news, because a couple hundred thousand private sector jobs were created.
Hogwash. The unemployment numbers got worse, something they weren't supposed to do and the market is finally realizing that everything is not rosy.
Jobs Week Wednesday: Four Key Releases and a 'Funeral' [View article]
While the ADP Non Farm Employment Change was different from BLS numbers, that does not lead me to question their accuracy. I do question the accuracy of BLS numbers which seem to have an increasingly broad range of "seasonal adjustments."
Decreasing income tax and Social Security withholdings seems to indicate that the BLS is in lala land.
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Why is no one talking about the fact that the profits at many of these companies is on a lot less total revenue. CAT down 44% year on year! That is not good news and speaks to the bigger trend in the economy, collapse.
Think Twice: How People Are Fooled by Irrelevant Data [View article]
For three years, I, a mere political science major, had to work on the defense budgeting process. The acquisition guys always came in with long powerpoint briefings filled with millions and sometimes billions in bills. I would start asking questions about their numbers and often within 20 minutes shred their program to pieces because they didn't understand where their numbers came from or how multiyear procurment programs were built and could be executed. Your comments about initial estimates and knowledge of the whole system are right on. When the engineers and accountants blindly accept the vendor's numbers and methodology, they are being lazy and losing money for someone.
Some Misconceptions About the Great Depression [View article]
The Depression was the normal economic response to the inflation of the 1920s. We are seeing a similar response to the last decades inflationary policies. I would suggest that 2008 equates to 1930 on your chart and that despite current government expenditure efforts we have at least two more years of weakness in the economy and the markets. (The Credit Suisse sub-prime mortgage reset chart shows that no full recovery can come into play before that mess resolves itself). FInally, government spending is not an efficient way to improve GDP. True recovery occurred after WWII when Truman cut government spending and lowered income taxes.
You are ignoring the housing market and unemployment problems which are going to stretch this recession out into 2010 or longer. These two problems are going to continue to beat down on the consumer and prevent an early end to the down cycle. The housing problems will also continue to beat on the banking/finance industry through 2012 as we must work through all the sub prime 3 and 5 year ARMs.
Don't trust this rally; it's a major bull trap, says currency analyst Christopher Vecchio. Pressures on global financial markets are too intense to support a sustained run in stocks right now. All it will take is just a few gusts of negativity to derail the entire train. [View news story]
CNBC anchor Mark Haines has passed away at the age of 65. [View news story]
Many people have been surprised by the strong stock rally this month, because the underlying economic data remain mixed. Analysts who follow election-year behavior have seen this before, with the overall pattern similar to the average performance in past congressional election years when market conditions were similar to today's. [View news story]
Only question left is how long can they keep it going. Next POMO sched for Tuesday and Thursday.
In Spite of Pre-Order Failures, iPhone 4 Sells Out in Under a Day [View article]
We can say it looks bad for ATT all we want. In truth it elicits and strengthens public desire for the new product.
How Apple Leapfrogged Microsoft [View article]
If I was allowed to, I'd get rid of MICROSOFT in my workplace.
Are You a Contrarian Investor? [View article]
Looking for next volatility play.
Holding short positions a little longer... expect more downside
Regulators still have found no evidence that erroneous activity or system malfunctions triggered the May 6 flash crash, CFTC officials tell a regulatory panel - in fact, it's possible that we may never know the cause. [View news story]
Revisiting My VIX Trade [View article]
Market recap: It wasn't as stomach-churning as yesterday's wild ride, but stocks sagged throughout the afternoon on volume of nearly 10B shares. For the week, the Dow tumbled 5.7%, the S&P slid 6.4% - worst showings since March 2009 - and the Nasdaq plunged 8%, biggest drop since November 2008. NYSE decliners outnumbered advancers by 4 to 1. [View news story]
Hogwash. The unemployment numbers got worse, something they weren't supposed to do and the market is finally realizing that everything is not rosy.
Jobs Week Wednesday: Four Key Releases and a 'Funeral' [View article]
Decreasing income tax and Social Security withholdings seems to indicate that the BLS is in lala land.
Top two spots on Amazon.com's (AMZN) Most Gifted list for notebooks? MacBooks (AAPL). [View news story]
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Think Twice: How People Are Fooled by Irrelevant Data [View article]
Some Misconceptions About the Great Depression [View article]
A Look at Some Recessionary Facts [View article]