Staying Committed To Europe - Even If It Is In Cash [View article]
MC, Agree. Don't follow inverse ETF and 2x inverse ETF's all that much, but it sure seems to us that the decay factor generally makes them unsuitable for anything but ST trading. If so then one has to get the timing right, which is hard to do.
IMF head Lagarde tells The Guardian her agency has no intention of easing the terms of Greece's bailout package. Greeks need to help themselves by paying their taxes, she says, adding she has more sympathy for poor African children than Greek ones - interesting sentiments from one who was part of the regime that oversaw hundreds of billions transferred to financial institutions in the aftermath of the GFC. [View news story]
Maybe the IMF should be placed in charge of the whole EU situation. At least they have some experience and understanding of bailouts with conditions for change.
Money Printing To Bring Forth The Next Risk-On Phase [View article]
Would not be too confident in this article's thesis in the ST such as the next 1-3 months. The US dollar is still rising and may well continue to do so as the EU continues to stumble. And if so equities, commodities, and PM will probably remain under downside pressures for awhile yet.
Gold: Give Me Stimulus, Or Give Me Death [View article]
tao, And under what mandate or legal authority does the Fed or ECB have the ability to buy risk assets such as stocks? None that we know of, that would permit such central bank action. Even though such has been often speculated as being done secretly via various proxies on behalf of central banks.
Plunging Commodity Prices Are Ominous For Stock Market [View article]
cay, OK. But the entire union sector in the US has dropped from something like 25% of the entire workforce to something under 10% of the workforce today. And by far the largest part of the unionized workforce is now in government, education, and healthcare. The three areas of the economy that are the least competitive, the most inefficient, and the most in need of radical structural change. The only reason that these sectors can continue to be the massive drag on the economy that they are is not because of the union wages, but because they are effectively monopolies that have no regard to productivity or costs.
As mentioned, just go and read a bit about the Dutch healthcare transformation over the last 10 years. They had essentially the same absurd and grossly inefficient healthcare system that the US has now. Over the last 10 years they have radically reformed their entire national healthcare system and now have a total cost of approximately 1/2 the per citizen cost that the US does. And yet the Dutch healthcare system is 100% run by the Dutch private health insurance industry (with only overall policy guidance from the Dutch government). And yet the Dutch still have unions. It was not the unions that made the system so expensive, it was the grossly inefficient system.
The US healthcare system costs something like 20% of GDP annually for extremely poor outcomes and performance. That would be about $3 trillion/year. If the US moved to the Dutch type system reform, the US could save potentially $1.5 trillion/year. That is big big money and would make the US much much more competitive in world markets on a cost basis. Of course the big vested interests groups such as doctors, nurses, hospitals, pharma, insurance, etc would make less excess profits .... but that's the way competition is supposed to work.
The gross inefficiency in US government could also be radically reduced in multiple different ways with subsequent massive reductions in costs. Take just one example. like insurance regulation. The federal government and every single state regulates insurance. Insurance just ain't that different at the federal or any state level. The concept of management by exception would make the whole insurance regulation costly mess far more efficient. A joint federal-sate body to regulate all insurance with say 99% similar rules and 1% exceptions. A joint regulatory body with representation by all would be far less costly and far better for all business and all customers with much more standardized regulations. The same could likely be said for most regulation such as food, cars, banking, and most areas. It really is a matter of efficiency and smart business practices. Which are sadly lacking in government, healthcare, and education.
Anyway the above are just a couple of examples, Certainly don't disagree with you that the most and highest levels of "stupidity" are in Wash, DC, but it's pretty dang close in every state capitol and most local governments as well. Unfortunately most of our fellow citizens have been hoodwinked by the meaningless rhetoric of our politicians, MSM, and those vested interests who stand to benefit the most from maintaining the status quo.
BTW, doesn't one have to wonder how it is that the Germans have developed all kinds of effective and cost efficient "unemployment", retraining, and work-hour sharing solutions, yet we as Americans just continue on with the same old absurd, costly and totally ineffective type of job loss and unemployment "attempted programs" that actually accomplish almost nothing.
Central bankers are keeping it low-key for now, writes Saxo Bank's Steen Jakobsen, but they're surely realizing they've fallen behind the curve. China is slowing precipitously, the rest of Asia is suffering from a cutoff in credit as EU banks pull back, and, of course, there's Europe. The central banks aren't going to sit on their hands forever. He's buying GLD, GDX, and HYG. [View news story]
The Fed won't be acting real soon, unless the markets really crash and not just a mere 5 or 10%. The politics will keep the Fed on hold unless it morphs into a real crisis as opposed to some market bulls crying and whining about their market losses.
Buying Nokia Below $3 Is Like Buying Ford Below $2 [View article]
DD, Your probably better off just buying the NOK equity at $2.82 or some lower price than buying the $3 call option for Jan/14 at $0.95 or 33% of the total cost. At least that way you have a perpetual call option instead of just 1.5 years. Or sell some $1.50 or $2 puts instead. Or even sell the $3 puts for Jan/14 rather than buy the call.
Friday Failure: Weak Bounce Levels Turn Into Resistance [View article]
The weakening economies in China, India, Brazil, etc. are just further evidence that worldwide equity markets are likely heading for further declines yet. And when one combines that with the rising US dollar, the US equity markets won't be spared either.
The Dollar And Euro: Breakout Vs. Breakdown [View article]
Good article and overview of dollar and euro ranges over the past few years. Not much doubt that a higher dollar will impact US multinational corporation earnings (after currency translation) and thus will keep up the downside pressure on many US equities.
What The Global Standoff Means For Oil Prices [View article]
Staying Committed To Europe - Even If It Is In Cash [View article]
Agree. Don't follow inverse ETF and 2x inverse ETF's all that much, but it sure seems to us that the decay factor generally makes them unsuitable for anything but ST trading. If so then one has to get the timing right, which is hard to do.
IMF head Lagarde tells The Guardian her agency has no intention of easing the terms of Greece's bailout package. Greeks need to help themselves by paying their taxes, she says, adding she has more sympathy for poor African children than Greek ones - interesting sentiments from one who was part of the regime that oversaw hundreds of billions transferred to financial institutions in the aftermath of the GFC. [View news story]
Money Printing To Bring Forth The Next Risk-On Phase [View article]
Gold: Give Me Stimulus, Or Give Me Death [View article]
And under what mandate or legal authority does the Fed or ECB have the ability to buy risk assets such as stocks? None that we know of, that would permit such central bank action. Even though such has been often speculated as being done secretly via various proxies on behalf of central banks.
Stocks: Why One More Major Correction Still Lies Ahead [View article]
Ok fair enough. Market timing is difficult, no doubt about that. One accomplishes that somewhat through frequent portfolio re
Weekly Economic Summary For Week Ending 25May2012 Still Shows Weakly Improving Economy [View instapost]
Plunging Commodity Prices Are Ominous For Stock Market [View article]
OK. But the entire union sector in the US has dropped from something like 25% of the entire workforce to something under 10% of the workforce today. And by far the largest part of the unionized workforce is now in government, education, and healthcare. The three areas of the economy that are the least competitive, the most inefficient, and the most in need of radical structural change. The only reason that these sectors can continue to be the massive drag on the economy that they are is not because of the union wages, but because they are effectively monopolies that have no regard to productivity or costs.
As mentioned, just go and read a bit about the Dutch healthcare transformation over the last 10 years. They had essentially the same absurd and grossly inefficient healthcare system that the US has now. Over the last 10 years they have radically reformed their entire national healthcare system and now have a total cost of approximately 1/2 the per citizen cost that the US does. And yet the Dutch healthcare system is 100% run by the Dutch private health insurance industry (with only overall policy guidance from the Dutch government). And yet the Dutch still have unions. It was not the unions that made the system so expensive, it was the grossly inefficient system.
The US healthcare system costs something like 20% of GDP annually for extremely poor outcomes and performance. That would be about $3 trillion/year. If the US moved to the Dutch type system reform, the US could save potentially $1.5 trillion/year. That is big big money and would make the US much much more competitive in world markets on a cost basis. Of course the big vested interests groups such as doctors, nurses, hospitals, pharma, insurance, etc would make less excess profits .... but that's the way competition is supposed to work.
The gross inefficiency in US government could also be radically reduced in multiple different ways with subsequent massive reductions in costs. Take just one example. like insurance regulation. The federal government and every single state regulates insurance. Insurance just ain't that different at the federal or any state level. The concept of management by exception would make the whole insurance regulation costly mess far more efficient. A joint federal-sate body to regulate all insurance with say 99% similar rules and 1% exceptions. A joint regulatory body with representation by all would be far less costly and far better for all business and all customers with much more standardized regulations. The same could likely be said for most regulation such as food, cars, banking, and most areas. It really is a matter of efficiency and smart business practices. Which are sadly lacking in government, healthcare, and education.
Anyway the above are just a couple of examples, Certainly don't disagree with you that the most and highest levels of "stupidity" are in Wash, DC, but it's pretty dang close in every state capitol and most local governments as well. Unfortunately most of our fellow citizens have been hoodwinked by the meaningless rhetoric of our politicians, MSM, and those vested interests who stand to benefit the most from maintaining the status quo.
BTW, doesn't one have to wonder how it is that the Germans have developed all kinds of effective and cost efficient "unemployment", retraining, and work-hour sharing solutions, yet we as Americans just continue on with the same old absurd, costly and totally ineffective type of job loss and unemployment "attempted programs" that actually accomplish almost nothing.
One Man's Search For A Safe And Growing Income Stream - Part 5 [View article]
ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Makes A 19 Week Low [View article]
How Greece Will Drag Down Europe And Refuse To Leave [View article]
Central bankers are keeping it low-key for now, writes Saxo Bank's Steen Jakobsen, but they're surely realizing they've fallen behind the curve. China is slowing precipitously, the rest of Asia is suffering from a cutoff in credit as EU banks pull back, and, of course, there's Europe. The central banks aren't going to sit on their hands forever. He's buying GLD, GDX, and HYG. [View news story]
Buying Nokia Below $3 Is Like Buying Ford Below $2 [View article]
Your probably better off just buying the NOK equity at $2.82 or some lower price than buying the $3 call option for Jan/14 at $0.95 or 33% of the total cost. At least that way you have a perpetual call option instead of just 1.5 years. Or sell some $1.50 or $2 puts instead. Or even sell the $3 puts for Jan/14 rather than buy the call.
Friday Failure: Weak Bounce Levels Turn Into Resistance [View article]
The Dollar And Euro: Breakout Vs. Breakdown [View article]