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untrusting investor

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  • From Anti-Inflation To Pro-Inflation [View article]
    Bernanke has simply moved into the unelected bureaucrat king poobah, where he thinks he can levy inflation taxes, at any level he chooses to levy the inflation tax, on US and worldwide citizens.

    Seem to recall that the American Revolution was fought over the principle of "no taxation without representation". Just because the spineless and dishonest politicians are incompetent to raise taxes and reduce spending and manage fiscal policy does not give King Bernanke the mandate or policy alternative to generate inflation taxes, even though he thinks it does. Some of the other professors from the Princeton History Department need to give King Bernanke a crash course in the American Constitution and the history of the American Revolution.
    Jan 4 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hidden Housing Subsidy Update [View article]
    Agreed, good article and an interesting read.
    Dec 29 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Citigroup Due To These Macro And Micro Risks [View article]
    Interesting read. Do agree that C is not a buy at current levels, with much better entry levels a strong possibility in 2013 for those interested in LT positions in C.
    Dec 29 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Each of the six independent directors of Chimera Investment (CIM) purchased 18,588 shares of company stock the day after Christmas at a price of $2.69/each - summed up, about $300K. They're the first insider buys of 2012. [View news story]
    What's the real story on CIM ????
    Dec 29 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frustration With Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Good overview. The post market move was quite telling. Monday should be quite interesting.
    Dec 29 03:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tribune Co. is preparing to emerge from bankruptcy on Monday. The Chicago-based publisher of the Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Baltimore Sun and other newspapers, and the owner of the WGN broadcast properties, has been under Chapter 11 protection from creditors since Dec. 8, 2008. [View news story]
    Sam Zell strikes again with the leveraged buyout of the Tribune in about 2007 which saddled it with over $13 billion in debt. Too bad they can't somehow force these titans of industry to lose their own billions in other ventures when they do these leveraged buyouts.
    Dec 29 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Prediction For 2013 - All Other Predictions Will Be Wrong [View article]
    Am expecting corporate revenues, profits, margins, and guidance to begin to and then keep weakening in 2013. Much of the improvement in corporate results since 08/09 has been because of massive government stimulus spending (trillions in US & worldwide). Most of this stimulus spending (deficit finance) essentially flowed directly into corporate income and balance sheets. Increased taxes and reduced government deficit spending is the mantra of governments worldwide now. Even just relatively small tax increases and any reductions in government deficit spending virtually have to transition into lesser corporate results going forward. The vast majority of worldwide consumers are being squeezed by stagnant incomes and rising prices. Without increasing consumer incomes and without massive government stimulus (and if it doesn't stay at the high levels of the last 4 years, then by definition it is a decrease), where is any increased demand going to come from .... answer no where ..... Without demand, corporations will have to begin to compete on price if they want to maintain market share and attempt to maintain revenues with decreasing demand. Margins contract, profits contract, revenues contract ... ultimately share prices follow and decline. It's always just a matter of time until equity prices follow corporate fundamentals.

    On the other hand, if you believe that corporate fundamentals will improve in 2013, then please feel free to identify where the demand will be coming from to support that. Certainly does not seem likely that worldwide consumers will be willing to increase debt, even if banks were willing to lend which they largely are not, to increase demand and consumption. So without government artificial consumption demand, then the likely outcome is reduced worldwide consumption and demand, which in turn leads to more downside pressure on corporations and equity prices.

    Central banks worldwide are printing money like crazy, but all they really are accomplishing is to drive inflation higher and cause even more demand destruction to the ever stagnant incomes of the vast majority of worldwide citizens. In addition they are also creating considerable pressure on themselves from an expenditure viewpoint. Since governments (all levels) in many developed countries arguably comprise 50+% of the spending in their own countries they are just driving their own costs higher and continuing to put enormous pressure on the tax and spending structures of their own economies and the stagnant incomes of the majority of citizens and consumers in their own economies.

    Guess we shall all find out in 2013 and 2014 how it all starts to play out. Those who get it right, as always, will probably make some decent money in the markets over the next few years.
    Dec 29 02:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Prediction For 2013 - All Other Predictions Will Be Wrong [View article]
    OK, thanks for the reply and information. Know many would agree with you that such large cap dividend payers are about fairly valued in many cases. Guess lots depends on ones time horizons and view about how revenues, earnings, and economies will perform over the next few years. Personally doubt that they will be able to maintain margins, earnings, and revenues over next few quarters, but that's the market game these days. No doubt they will all will be higher in say 10+ years, but do think better entry levels will be available in coming quarters.
    Dec 28 10:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Intel Corporation The Ultimate Value Trap For Investors? [View article]
    And what is "cheap enough" for INTC ??
    Dec 28 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Final Friday Of 2012: Cliff Talks Down To The Wire - Wire Attached To Debt Bomb [View article]
    Given Phil's outlook, one has to wonder why he is "cashy and cautious", and basically has been for the most part over the last few years as well? Seems like such an outlook might call for mostly long investments, even if fully hedged, and not much cash.
    Dec 28 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr. Marc Faber's Market Outlook For 2013 [View article]
    A neutral to bearish outlook, and only defensive long only positions recommended?
    Dec 28 08:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time For A Floating-Rate Bank Loan Fund In Your Portfolio? [View article]
    Good points along with a good article.
    Dec 28 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Only A Fiscal Slope, Not A Cliff! [View article]
    And what about the "debt cliff" also in play, per Tiny Tim, as of 12/31/12 which Treasury will begin to take extraordinary measures to fund and which will only provide government funding for at most another couple of months?
    Dec 28 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Prediction For 2013 - All Other Predictions Will Be Wrong [View article]
    But that begs the question of whether or not any of these equity selections are overvalued at this point in time or whether or not much better entry levels will become available at some point over the coming months or years.
    Dec 28 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's the fiscal cliff and the container cliff (temporarily averted), but WSJ discusses a third cliff approaching: the "dairy cliff," a scenario where Congress fails to pass a farm bill to extend agricultural subsidies, which in turn would cause milk prices to soar. The milk industry already is in crisis, as milk consumption has been sliding steadily for decades. [View news story]
    Hmmmm, where are all those capitalists demanding reductions in government subsidies to the milk industry? And where are the Dems & Repubs. suggesting cuts to corporate welfare and subsidy programs?
    Dec 28 06:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment