Seeking Alpha

untrusting investor

untrusting investor
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View untrusting investor's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Consumer Recovery? [View article]
    John,
    Another SA article showed a small price survey of Walmart food prices that an analyst did for investment purposes in Walmart. It showed a 0.6% increase in food prices over the last two months at Walmart or 3.6% annualized. Many of the items were those of the large US multinational companies.

    Happened to be at the grocey store a few days ago. Noticed that coffee was priced at $10-11/can. Had just purchased several cans about a month ago at $5-6. Local paper ran an article showing the following price increases here this year: water increased 17% from 2009 to 2010, electricity increased about 19% from 2009 to 2010, and bus passes were up about 33% from 2007 to 2010.

    No need to wait for Banana Ben's consumer inflation anymore. It is here already. Shutter to think of what it is going to be in 2011 and 2012. Don't know about you, but these types of trends will definitely have a negative impact on our spending as the government controlled entities and public corporations squeeze ever more from us and average americans.
    Nov 11, 2010. 07:07 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons to Buy Gold at $1,300 an Ounce [View article]
    Maybe so, but it will be interesting to see how gold does when and if interest rates return to Jimmy Carter levels in the 15-20% range which is certainly possible in coming years with madman Bernake at the helm. Maybe the Fed/Treasury will have to sell off the gold they are allegedly holding in Fort Knox in lieu of the worthless US dollars Mr. Bernake is attempting to create.
    Oct 10, 2010. 11:07 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Between a Rock and a Hard Place [View article]
    Jerry,
    You may well be waiting for the next significant move down. But it appears that the PPT and their henchmen, da boyz, have no intention of letting the market sell-off irregardless of the weakening economy. With the unlimited funds of the Fed and Treasury backing them, da boyz might just be able to continue with the levitation and the stick saves almost indefinitely. Even Houdini would have been embarassed by the fake magic of the PPT and their minions today.
    Aug 6, 2010. 06:02 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Going Down With the Ship? [View article]
    LOL, does that mean that falling markets will sink all boats then?
    Jul 16, 2010. 06:16 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rise of the Machines: In today’s exchanges, strong programs prey on weak ones, humans are hard to find, and the SEC struggles to keep up. If the majority of trades racing back and forth are now simply lines of code swapping with other lines of code, what exactly is this thing we call the financial market?  [View news story]
    We have been down that path already with Goldman and the "rogue programmer" who allegedly stole some of their code. GS was able to get an immediate injunction and law enforcement agents to act almost instantaneously against the programmer. Needless to say GS with their 100% successful trading days over the past many months denys that they manipulate anything. Kind of like the baseball players and other athletes that bulked up and set records but never too any steroids they claimed. The manipulated trading is as obvious to anyone who cares to look, as was the performance enhanced records of baseball players. The difference is that baseball finally acted to try and stop the lying and cheating, whereas the SEC, Fed, and politicans have no interest in acting to stop the lying and cheating in the markets. It is simply too much money for those in the loop. Unfortunately, the bagsters are in the process of killing the market ... sooner or later the other 99% of the participants will walk away from a rigged game, and it seems that is what is starting to happen right now.
    Jun 18, 2010. 09:26 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Timothy Geithner Meets Vladimir Lenin [View article]
    Nominal incomes are going to go up? How? With 17+% underemployment, any average worker wanting any type of raise in nominal income can easily be replaced by dozens of others willing to work for much less. Or outsourced to China or India or Mexico for $1/2/hour just as millions of other US jobs have been outsourced over the past decade(s). Even government workers will be under tremendous nominal income pressures as it will take years for tax revenues to recover. Government workers will either face increasing layoffs due to budget shortfalls or at the least increased furlough days in coming years.
    Jan 4, 2010. 10:31 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10% [View article]
    Slavak,
    Almost all wars have been fought with borrowed money. If you look at history: the Napoleonic wars, the English and Spanish wars of centuries ago, the Roman Empire conquests, WW1, WW2, the Vietnam war, and virtually any war you can name was financed by borrowing, and the banking cartels have profited very handsomely from them and expanded their influence and power from the financing of wars. In fact the folly of war and the borrowed money to wage them has ultimately destroyed or marginalized virtually every regime and empire in history. And the US will likely be no different than it's historical predecessors, it is just a matter of when not if, and to what degree the US loses significant world influence and prosperity. In fact the only the only war that one can think of that might remotely be considered to not be financed by borrowed money might be the Gulf War 1, which the affected Arab states and the rest of the world basically agreed to fund.


    On Nov 08 10:30 AM Slavak09 wrote:

    > Au contraire! What we are seeing is 6 years of deficit spending to
    > support a war without biting the political bullet to raise taxes
    > or decrease entitlements. Name me any politician, left or right who
    > has the cojones to cut entitlements no matter how much damage to
    > the economy. Afghanistan and Iraq both were fought with borrowed
    > money. Someone correct me but I think this was a first in several
    > 100 years. Perhaps since the Roman Republic
    Nov 8, 2009. 01:46 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Option Trader Friday Outlook: Is the Dollar Going UUP? [View article]
    Fair enough to point to gold as a possible investment. But you have to compare investments then, not just raw dollars.

    Lets do a comparison then on $100 at 1980 as you suggest.
    1) Gold
    - Average price of gold in 1980 per historical chart was: $594/oz. Therefore for your $100 you would get: $100/594=.1683501 oz.
    - Today your .1683501 would be worth: .1683501 x $1096.90 = $184.66
    2) Almost any high quality stock
    2.1) GE - Jan/02/80 price of GE =$48.75 . Therefore for your $100 you would get: $100/$48.75 = 2.051282 shares of GE.
    - Stock splits in GE: 1983=2:1, 1987=2:1, 1994=2:1, 1997=2:1, 2000=3:1 Therefore, just your stock splits alone would result in:
    2.051282x2=4.102564 x2=8.205128 x2=16.410256 x2=32.820512 x3=98.461536 shares of GE today
    - Therefore 98.461536 GEx $15.33 closing price today = $1,509.41
    - Now consider the GE dividends from 1980 to today. They ranged from $0.015/share in 1980 to $.31/share lately. So assume an average of 1/2 the range or about $0.16/share quarterly since 1980.
    That would be: $0.16 x 4 quarters x 29 years x average of 50 Sh = $928.00
    - That gives you a GE total of $1,509.41 + $928.00 = $2,437.41 for the 29 year investment of $100 in GE.
    2.2) And you probably could show much the same for many other stocks as well.
    3) The comparison in total for your 1980 $100 US dollars.
    3.1) Gold for your $100 in 1980 is now worth = $184.66
    3.2) GE shares for your $100 in 1980 is now worth = $2,437.31

    So you can go ahead and argue all you want about how valuable your Gold is, but the facts clearly show that almost any decent dividend paying stock would absolutely KILL your gold investment. In short, you can keep your 1980, $100, .1683501 oz of gold. Meanwhile, I will cash in my GE dividends and stock at $2,437.31 and buy $2,437.31/$1,096.90 = 2.2219983 oz. of gold. Thus I will have 2.2119983/.1683501oz = 13.19 times as much gold or return on investment as do you gold bugs. So if you think that's a good investment, then go ahead and keep buying more gold. Meanwhile the dividend stock buyers will keep outperforming you 10x over for decades to come. Probably even treasuries or low risk bonds would have far outperformed your gold investment, but too lazy to go through and do a comparison on that.

    On Nov 06 09:02 PM Dialectical Materialist wrote:

    > I have never trusted analyses that assume the people on the other
    > side of the trade are a hoard of people who are bad at math... The
    > goldbugs I know are pretty good at math. They understand that $1
    > now is less than $1 in 1980 while 1 oz of gold now equals 1 oz. of
    > gold in 1980. Which would you rather have held on to for the last
    > 30 years?
    >
    > I have a $100 bill from 1950. It is not in uncirculated condition
    > and as such it has no collectors value. It is worth $100. But I can't
    > spend it, because I think it is cool that it is so old. What is not
    > cool is thinking about how much that bill was worth when it was printed.
    > The original owner could have taken his family for a three day weekend
    > at a cabin on the lake. Today he could get dinner and drinks with
    > a few buddies at a TGI Fridays.
    >
    > Sure the dollar is going to go up and down, but don't try to paint
    > those who put some savings into gold and silver as a bunch of simpletons.
    Nov 7, 2009. 12:53 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The March Rally May Indeed Have Legs [View article]
    Well, one hope you guys are buying the dips now based on your continuing bull beliefs, as it has worked so far since March. There is lots of selling now by the momentum guys exiting as fast as they can, so you should be able to get some great deals, if you believe the stuff you have written. Meanwhile the rest of the folks will wait for much lower prices to buy anything.
    Oct 28, 2009. 06:38 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Market Crash? [View article]
    "After a 50% run in stock prices in a 5 month time span it is time to sell. Value buyers will purchase “every stock in sight” only when stocks sell for 6 – 7 times earnings, they will be highly selective at 10 or 11 to 1 ratios, and won't buy anything at 18 – 19 times profits."

    Exactly right on the above observation and a number of other ones in you article as well.
    Aug 17, 2009. 02:42 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asia: 3 Warning Signs Of A Potential Bloodbath Ahead [View article]
    Good read... the question is when not if..
    Nov 10, 2013. 05:56 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    deer,
    CEO's to lobby Washington about not going over the fiscal cliff?? Meanwhile are any of these same CEO's mentioning increasing corporate taxes or rather are they just trying to shift the tax burden to someone else so they can continue to feed at the taxpayer trough? Or are any of these CEO's suggesting that the foreign profits tax exemptions for corporations be closed down so that corporations are taxed on their worldwide income, just as individuals are? Or are any of these same CEO's suggesting that CEO stock option and executive compensation tax laws be revamped so that CEO's and corporate executives be subject to the same income taxation that salaries and wages are subject to? Crony capitalism continues in it's finest tradition of gimme gimme gimme, especially taxpayer money, and let somebody else pay for the majority of the costs.
    Nov 28, 2012. 08:44 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain Bailout, Other Indicators Say: Be Open To Stock Rally [View article]
    It is unclear how recapitalization or EFSF loans to Spanish banks will do anything other than keep them from having to declare bankruptcy. How does a loan from one entity like the EFSF to a Spanish bank do anything other than pile more debt on top of more debt? Which in turn just requires more debt servicing and more interest payments. Economic activity is declining, there is little to no demand, nor are jobs are not being created.

    It is true that the market bulls can spin the news and try to find even greater fools to buy at even higher levels. But fundamentally nothing has changed in the EU. None of the significant structural changes that are needed are in the works and none of the competitiveness or cost differences are being addressed. And it takes many years to see the type of structural changes happen that need to be made. Even if they are willing to address them, which politicians rarely are.
    Jun 9, 2012. 02:47 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2008 All Over Again? [View article]
    davel,
    And where has that balance been for the last say 10-20 years?? And when will such balance ever be displayed .... maybe 2112???

    All more stimulus, more government spending, and easy money advocates understand is inflate, inflate, inflate; print money, print money: and deficit spend, deficit spend, deficit spend ... virtually forever.

    Did it ever occur to you that if recession is allowed to happen then perhaps the real causes of the problems will by necessity be forced to be addressed. Namely large structural problems such as the idiotic tax code, grossly inefficient healthcare system, excessive military expenditures, unproductive educational systems, absurd energy policy, etc. Austerity has a way of forcing changes to be made. Easy money never does.

    Never ever seen any inflater, money printer, or deficit spender ever indicate any concrete time line as to when deficits, printing, or spending should ever be reduced. It's always some intermediate or long term objective somewhere out there in the fantasy future. But it never happens.
    Feb 9, 2012. 06:03 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BBC Says Merkel Says Greece Will Default [View article]
    Bob,
    Great links as always. Wow, that last article is pretty harsh. In effect it mentions loss of monetary control by Greek politicians and the Greek people, and first priority of any and all Greek government revenues to external debt service, and lastly removal of the threat of default by Greece. All under an EU appointed financial overlord. A defacto takeover of Greece and it's sovereignty by the EU. Cannot see Greek politicians nor the Greek people agreeing to accept such terms. Looks like the makings of a total revolution by the Greeks or outright rejection, total default, and exit from the EU.
    Jan 28, 2012. 02:29 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9,966 Comments
11,555 Likes