kianator

Will Expected Rally Be Part Bear or Bull?

to all,

just follow the 10 month exponential moving avg (EMA) on the S&P 500 Monthly chart (200 day on Daily, 40 weekly charts) to help decide when the market has turned from a bear to bull market. when you get a monthly closes above 10 ema monthly, then that is a very relilable signal that the market has gone from bear to bull. monthly charts weed out the daily noise you have in the markets and provide you with the big picture of whether you are in a bull or bear market.

based on previous down cycles in the market, it just doesn't happen right away no matter how much the S&P has lost this year. HOWEVER, we are so oversold on the all long-term charts that the "mother of all over-sold bear market rallies" is entirely possible up to the longer-term moving avgs.

tomorrow's job reports will give you a good clue on whether the intermediate trend is about to change for the next few months. the market has been pricing in bad news since the Nov 21st DOW lost of 7450.