kianator

Steve Leuthold, whose Grizzly Short Fund returned 74% last year, says now is the time to buy stocks. "These comparisons people make with the Great Depression are totally out of touch with reality, and pretty stupid." S&P at 1,000 this year, Leuthold says.

He's like most perma-bears who have covered their short positions recently like Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave, the favourable risk-reward trade or them is not Dow 5000, but Dow 10,000.

Self-serving commentary at best. Follow the charts and wait for a 20/50 MA cross on the daily chart before thinking about possibility of a major bear market rally.

Finally, Some Holiday Cheer

Daily close above 50 ema and Weekly close above 10 ema is a good short-term technical sign with stochastics move well above 20 and MACD histogram above 0.

Yes, no volume as the SPY volume was about 1/2 the 30 day avg as well with the QQQQs. Oh well, a trend is a trend. But, without volume and money flows to confirm this move, a reversal is always possible so move your stops up.



On Jan 02 04:30 PM archman82011 wrote:

> I guess.
>
> Then again, there was barely even half the average daily volume traded
> on the indexes today (1/2/09).
>
> Nothing to get excited about here.
>
> Volume since a low in November has been barely average each day up.
>
>
> Food for thought folks. Do not get sucked into hype.
>
>
>

Expect a significant rally in Q1 with Obama's mandate likely to bolster investor sentiment, Cazanove's Robin Griffiths says. "It would be astonishing if they had no effect," adding that whether or not the rally is a just bear market surge or a new bull will depend on its strength.

These days, I listen to only market-neutral commentary from online and TV media channels.

Too many fund & hedge managers are down 30-50% this year so they need a "window dressing" rally between now and Dec 31st 4:00pm EST to make their 2008 performance look better. And, into early 2009.

Too much self-serving commentary out there with people who are down big time and need a bail-out (sound familiar these days?) rally just keep them going into 2009.

I want a rally too. However, the rally since Nov 21st has been pathetically weak with limited volume and money flows. You still get the talking heads on CNBC talking up Nov 21st rally as they bottom. But, most are not that stupid and can read a chart and realize that it has been accompanied by limited big money players.

Don't Be Fooled by Bad News - Market Is Heading Up

If we get a daily close above the 50 MAs on the S&P/NAZ with ABOVE AVG VOL then I will be convinced of a lasting rally until the end of year and early 09.

All rallies, including present one from Nov 21st, have all been usually below avg vol.

Is It Time to Buy? What History Shows

All will be bear market rallies until the S&P 500 monthly chart closes above the 10 EMA. Very reliable (yes, lagging especially on a monthly chart) indicator to tell you when the long-term market trend has changed from bear to bull.

Volume and money flows will indicate how far this rallies goes.

SPY volume was actually 80 million less yesterday than on Friday's rally. See if that continues to give you a good idea of how long this pre-santa claus rally lasts.

10 Contrarian Reasons for a Bottom

The S&P 500 has broken it's downtrend line, however, I would actually love to see a pickup in volume to indicate big money capital is returning. Let's see if that happens post-lunch and into the close.

10 Contrarian Reasons for a Bottom

For a short-term trade, for a short-term trade up to longer-term MAs and trendlines!! Unless, you see a a monthly close above key MAs and pricing levels.

Remember the so-called bottom of the Fall of 2001 as a case example of Wall Street getting tried of selling/shorting in deeply oversold daily/weekly charts and covering their shorts and going long sucking in the regular investors, and then crushing them later in 2002.

A lot of mutual funds and hedgies are down 30-50% in 2008 so they need this rally to just to stay alive in 2009. Those talking heads on CNBC and especially on CNBC Fast Money show, are DOWN this year and have been praying for a rally. Cramer has been a crying pig these days with his daily commentary going back and forth in a manic fashion.

Liquidity Is a Problem, But There Are Positive Signs Nonetheless

Yep, I concur with the author. Big money still has not returned to the markets as the QQQQ's & SPYs total volume on Friday's job reversal rally was lower than the so-called bottom rallies on Oct 10th, Oct 28, and even the Nov 21st (Fri. options exp) rally. Volume decreased after each of these days.

This coming week will be a good market participation test as a weekly close above S&P 900/Dow 8850 would mean we are setting up for a possible test of the 50 day MAs.

Markets Will Hit More Lows Before They Bottom

The author need to look at the monthly/weekly charts of the S&P and Nasdaq and realize most institutional players do not stay negative (and NET SHORT) too long and do not take on too many new short positions when these charts have been basing at oversold levels in Oct/Nov. You just have to take profits and wait for the market to run up stocks back to longer-term trend lines (200 EMA Daily) before becoming more aggressive short wise.

The news is going to be attrocious throughout December just like today's jobs report, but the charts are still way too oversold to commit large sums of capital on the short side. Least path of resistance is up until trendline resitance is reached.

Will Expected Rally Be Part Bear or Bull?

to all,

just follow the 10 month exponential moving avg (EMA) on the S&P 500 Monthly chart (200 day on Daily, 40 weekly charts) to help decide when the market has turned from a bear to bull market. when you get a monthly closes above 10 ema monthly, then that is a very relilable signal that the market has gone from bear to bull. monthly charts weed out the daily noise you have in the markets and provide you with the big picture of whether you are in a bull or bear market.

based on previous down cycles in the market, it just doesn't happen right away no matter how much the S&P has lost this year. HOWEVER, we are so oversold on the all long-term charts that the "mother of all over-sold bear market rallies" is entirely possible up to the longer-term moving avgs.

tomorrow's job reports will give you a good clue on whether the intermediate trend is about to change for the next few months. the market has been pricing in bad news since the Nov 21st DOW lost of 7450.