RandyRuiz

Forecast: Recovery, But Not Until Q3

Zanax anyone, this group could use some therapy.

Laszlo Birinyi: S&P 750's the Bottom - Barron's Interview

Can we all agree that no one on this site or for that matter, the world has a clue about what they are talking about? For gods sake the doom and gloomers are predicting the literal end of the world while
the pollyanas are declaring the bottom is in. Here is the biggest truth any SA'er is going to get. I DON'T KNOW, YOU DON'T KNOW, NO ONE KNOWS what the hell is coming.

You know what we need to do? Here is the answer, man up, get ready to change with the world, make your self some money and keep yourself and your family safe. As a follow up, dont give in to a negative mind set. Even if it is the end of the world being negative will only weigh you down.

History Is Neither Bunk nor Bible

China's Dollars dont make up for thier model of central planning. They are building ghost cities with five star hotels that no one will ever stay in. They have eliminated female children from there population for decades creating a social disaster which will soon be coming due. Lets not discount the cost of the ecological disaster that is China and what it will cost them to fix that. And most importantly, A large percentage of their work force are effectively slave labor which is not a sustainable model and yet is the very basis of their productive advantage.

The USSR also looked very impressive in the initial stages of their development, they made it to space before we did remember? But in the long run the failed because of their governing and economic model. China is still ruled by a communist regime. Yes their economy has capitalistic aspects but they are no U.S. Not by a long shot.

In spite of the current size and intrusion of our government I still believe that we are the freest economic power in the world and will still be so after the depression is over.

I respect Jim Rogers as an investor and a strategist but I think in this race he is backing the wrong horse.

On Dec 04 10:00 PM cruiser9805 wrote:

> China is only beginning. They have pegged their currency to ours.
> They have over 1.4 trillion in US reserve. You do not think they
> can borrow against that? Do not forget, they are also diversifying
> into gold and other reserves. While we got -.5% GDP they're at a
> poor old 7%GDP. Wow, they really are hurting. They are also buying
> up commodities all over the world dirt cheap. Personally, i am betting
> on them...not against US, just that theyre economy will continue
> to grow right thru our disasters.

History Is Neither Bunk nor Bible

To Rienko,
I am not sure I agree with the Atomic bomb theory as the only reason. Nothing in History is as easy as a single driver. However I would say that in all cases the catalyst for the next driver of American dominance was not obvious until the next boom was well under way. The U.S. has a cultural advantage on most if not all other cultures in the realm of innovation (In My Humble Opinion). Innovation ultimately determines the dominant players of a given time frame(Again in my humble opinion). We still have a huge advantage in spite of our current problems.

I would also say that the rest of the world will suffer equally or most likely worse than we will. China will not excluded from the coming depression. China is also not as structurally prepared as the U.S. to weather that storm. (Yuan is not a reserve currency, Industrial output is TOTALLY reliant on U.S. demand, no real social backstops FDIC, Social Security, Unemployment benefits, blah, blah ). I would say they are in for a rougher ride than we are.

In short, a really bad time is at hand for the world. It may take a decade or longer to regain the current level of economic activity. However I wouldn't count the U.S. out as the Major player on the world stage just yet. We still have the most competitive people in the world being imported here and being grown here.

To every one on this board who is predicting the end of the world because of the impending depression, I have a message for you. Man up, adapt, and get your ass in gear. This is EXACTLY the call to arms that has gotten America in the game to kick ass time and time again in the past. It is almost as if America needs these moments to get her to rise to her potential. So lets quit the fatalistic whining and lets figure out how to turn this around and make money.



On Dec 04 06:17 PM Reinko wrote:

> To Chis B:
>
> The tone of the article suggests that the author thinks we are only
> in recession mode but there is no proof for that whatsoever.
>
> It could also be depression mode although in the Treasuries there
> is still an giant amount of money found that needs to be burned away
> before true depression could sink in.
>
> To RandyRuiz:
>
> Don't forget it was the atomic bomb that did miracles to the US$
> as a reserve currency in the long run. And it took a long long time
> since the start of the previous depression before the USA gained
> world leadership via the atomic bomb.
>
> These decades are just so different, of course some part of US tech
> will have great worth in the future, but feeding more of the US obisity
> is not a wise investment for the foreign nations. They better feed
> their own populations and wait and see how things pan out in the
> USA.

History Is Neither Bunk nor Bible

Think about this. The end of the US and its dominance in world affairs has been prognosticated at every recession/depression since the 1870's. If you don't believe me google for it. I have no Idea what the future holds for this country but what I do know is that the worst investment has been one against the U.S.

On Dec 04 04:54 PM Chris B wrote:

> "Speaking of which, how long do bear markets generally last? The
> longest since WWII: 3.0 years, Crandall Pierce advises. The current
> selloff is about 1.2 years old at the moment, slightly below the
> 1.4-year average."
>
> Is it appropriate to look at US market history alone and draw conclusions
> about the longest possible bear market? How long did Japan's bear
> market last? It's been zig zagging mostly downward for two decades
> now and is now at early 1980's levels. Oversold? Then why wasn't
> that also the case 15 years ago?
>
> Things that never happened before happen every day and you have to
> do some fishing to see much repetition in history. Continued US
> prosperity is an assumption that everyone is making. Think about
> that.