scotty1560's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/313149/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/170840-no-money-down-mortgages-continue-unfortunately?source=feed#comment-752335 752335 debtor... unable to withstand a blow to income or a price correction..
What the author is saying is that government is encouraging people
to take on massive debt that makes no sense and places the borrower in jeopardy of losing the home, losing his credit, and
possible IRS and judgments. Leverage is a cancer.]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 10:17:30 -0500 debtor... unable to withstand a blow to income or a price correction..
What the author is saying is that government is encouraging people
to take on massive debt that makes no sense and places the borrower in jeopardy of losing the home, losing his credit, and
possible IRS and judgments. Leverage is a cancer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129614-on-bubbles-and-depressions?source=feed#comment-454255 454255 The middle class is about to vanish into poverty and the taxation
we are looking at will break all but the highest earners down.

Entitlements, global military presence, large government. These
things eventually break the back of any country, go read the history books. Cost of living from food to oil is a guaranteed way to kill a
society.

Read some books about the collapse of the Roman Empire or
other advanced societies. History repeats itself with slightly
different twists. Read about the laws of diminishing returns.]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:47:23 -0400 The middle class is about to vanish into poverty and the taxation
we are looking at will break all but the highest earners down.

Entitlements, global military presence, large government. These
things eventually break the back of any country, go read the history books. Cost of living from food to oil is a guaranteed way to kill a
society.

Read some books about the collapse of the Roman Empire or
other advanced societies. History repeats itself with slightly
different twists. Read about the laws of diminishing returns.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129627-seven-reasons-the-market-has-already-bottomed?source=feed#comment-454242 454242 Real Estate is staircase stepping down, and for the moment at least in South Florida, there is some support.

OK, so we are in peak season for say another 3-4 weeks, then what? Very few of the sales are sellers with equity, they are mostly short sale or foreclosed. Lots of sellers just got cleaned out for hundreds of thousands of dollars in equity and improvements and taxes paid. I doubt many are in the mood to put hard earned money at risk, and they have damaged credit ratings.

Most people make less money or have no job at all, lending standards are tighter, the dollar for now is stronger. The bulls
are way early, the economic model for this country has major issues.

]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:34:44 -0400 Real Estate is staircase stepping down, and for the moment at least in South Florida, there is some support.

OK, so we are in peak season for say another 3-4 weeks, then what? Very few of the sales are sellers with equity, they are mostly short sale or foreclosed. Lots of sellers just got cleaned out for hundreds of thousands of dollars in equity and improvements and taxes paid. I doubt many are in the mood to put hard earned money at risk, and they have damaged credit ratings.

Most people make less money or have no job at all, lending standards are tighter, the dollar for now is stronger. The bulls
are way early, the economic model for this country has major issues.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129714-is-gold-a-better-hedge-than-oil?source=feed#comment-454228 454228 and the stuff is getting costlier to extract.

Gold should do well down the road as well.

Mad Hedge Fund Trader makes nice points and Brad as well.

]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:10:54 -0400 and the stuff is getting costlier to extract.

Gold should do well down the road as well.

Mad Hedge Fund Trader makes nice points and Brad as well.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129041-housing-weakness-looms-large-over-market?source=feed#comment-450095 450095
Few buyers, lower ltv (more equity) requirements, stronger dollar vs Euro, to much supply.

I see the lower jumbo (500k- 1.5 mil) finding support, at least for the short term. The higher stuff was last to the party and is higher on the mountain. At least another year to fall on the top end thanks
to overbuilding and phony lending practices and stronger hands that maybe aren't so strong..
]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 19:01:48 -0400
Few buyers, lower ltv (more equity) requirements, stronger dollar vs Euro, to much supply.

I see the lower jumbo (500k- 1.5 mil) finding support, at least for the short term. The higher stuff was last to the party and is higher on the mountain. At least another year to fall on the top end thanks
to overbuilding and phony lending practices and stronger hands that maybe aren't so strong..
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127517-why-is-oil-trading-at-53-when-supply-and-demand-is-so-bearish?source=feed#comment-440328 440328 Not convinced that the equities or real estate markets have bottomed.

Bailout stimulus is bound to boost the economy for a quarter or two, however, long term organic growth is something that seems hard to envision over the next few years. I'm also not sure how much burden the average middle class person can absorb, check out how NY is raising all the tolls on subways and commuting, it is stunning how our pathetic leaders keep going after the average guy.

We will witness a major collapse in our country, and we are all well on the way to witnessing it. We are in the third or fourth inning.]]> Wed, 25 Mar 2009 18:54:58 -0400 Not convinced that the equities or real estate markets have bottomed.

Bailout stimulus is bound to boost the economy for a quarter or two, however, long term organic growth is something that seems hard to envision over the next few years. I'm also not sure how much burden the average middle class person can absorb, check out how NY is raising all the tolls on subways and commuting, it is stunning how our pathetic leaders keep going after the average guy.

We will witness a major collapse in our country, and we are all well on the way to witnessing it. We are in the third or fourth inning.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127011-quantitative-easing-and-the-disappearance-of-income?source=feed#comment-434749 434749 the cost of living is going up in every walk of life, so paying less in
interest to a bank is not the problem. If it spurs buying, good, as long as the buyer has traditional income ratios, 20+% equity, and a fixed rate with 15-30 year loans.

Problem, was in qualifying, appraisals, HELOC scams, and lack of
enough equity. If banks held the line at 20% equity with no 2nd mortgages allowed, then we would not have this massive problem.

The game in Florida flippers was a 90% first mortgage and 15-20% 2nd mortgage, aka 110% mortgages. Not very sound business and we can see where that lead to, a collapse of our markets. ]]> Sat, 21 Mar 2009 20:42:36 -0400 the cost of living is going up in every walk of life, so paying less in
interest to a bank is not the problem. If it spurs buying, good, as long as the buyer has traditional income ratios, 20+% equity, and a fixed rate with 15-30 year loans.

Problem, was in qualifying, appraisals, HELOC scams, and lack of
enough equity. If banks held the line at 20% equity with no 2nd mortgages allowed, then we would not have this massive problem.

The game in Florida flippers was a 90% first mortgage and 15-20% 2nd mortgage, aka 110% mortgages. Not very sound business and we can see where that lead to, a collapse of our markets. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126909-a-graphic-depiction-of-distressed-real-estate-sales?source=feed#comment-434743 434743 bigger move is probably in, at least in South Florida.

1.5 mil land is now 450k, might drop to 300k-350k over the
next year or so, that would be about 80% haircut. That said
it could go sideways for another 3-4 years.

One could hunt around now if they want a prime location with limited downside. Otherwise, wait until next summer and you will be getting in on the new base building levels. Very high end still has plenty of room to fall, they were the last to get to the party, much like NYC.]]> Sat, 21 Mar 2009 20:31:48 -0400 bigger move is probably in, at least in South Florida.

1.5 mil land is now 450k, might drop to 300k-350k over the
next year or so, that would be about 80% haircut. That said
it could go sideways for another 3-4 years.

One could hunt around now if they want a prime location with limited downside. Otherwise, wait until next summer and you will be getting in on the new base building levels. Very high end still has plenty of room to fall, they were the last to get to the party, much like NYC.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126805-as-mortgage-rates-plunge-30-year-fixed-rate-of-3-5-seems-likely?source=feed#comment-432134 432134 my only questions is at least in my area of South Florida there is no
equity thanks to 60+% corrections. Few people who purchased in the last 8-10 years have equity. And older owners I would think can see the risk in a re-fi, you also are on the back end of a mortgage which is rapidly building principal.

So for boom areas, I don't see re-fi as a big option. Might help
new loans if someone is walking around with perfect credit and
not going after a jumbo loan. ]]> Thu, 19 Mar 2009 09:32:32 -0400 my only questions is at least in my area of South Florida there is no
equity thanks to 60+% corrections. Few people who purchased in the last 8-10 years have equity. And older owners I would think can see the risk in a re-fi, you also are on the back end of a mortgage which is rapidly building principal.

So for boom areas, I don't see re-fi as a big option. Might help
new loans if someone is walking around with perfect credit and
not going after a jumbo loan. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125773-why-this-may-have-been-a-sucker-s-rally?source=feed#comment-424015 424015 No expert here but I agree with Andrew.

Smart traders can make some money here. I'm not
good enough, so I'll watch the action.]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 01:21:42 -0400 No expert here but I agree with Andrew.

Smart traders can make some money here. I'm not
good enough, so I'll watch the action.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125414-home-prices-are-taking-a-breather-before-heading-lower?source=feed#comment-424009 424009 Look for at least 2 summers for a bottom then look
for another 4-5 years of sideways drift.

Speaking of South Florida, property taxes and insurance
and maintenance are now unsustainable for most owners.
Local governments have attacked the property angle while the FED goes after capital gains and income. States attack the sales tax angle. They have us blanketed and it no longer makes sense to own property here. Tax write off is not enough of a carrot.
]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 01:16:22 -0400 Look for at least 2 summers for a bottom then look
for another 4-5 years of sideways drift.

Speaking of South Florida, property taxes and insurance
and maintenance are now unsustainable for most owners.
Local governments have attacked the property angle while the FED goes after capital gains and income. States attack the sales tax angle. They have us blanketed and it no longer makes sense to own property here. Tax write off is not enough of a carrot.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-419907 419907
100 years ago the government was much more supportive
of middle class policies. That has changed post 1980
America via all the presidents..status quo elites
throw bailout money to the same people who created
the problems, while throwing the masses to the wolves.
Tax codes, bankruptcy laws, Glass-Steagall repeal,
property and capital gains.. all favor the wealthy.
Didn't Warren Buffet have that famous quote about his 60k secretary paying higher tax rates than he?

Rallies will happen but the trend will be down through
2011 in both equities and real estate. My friends tell
me inflation will save them...sorry, look at Japan.]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:25:35 -0400
100 years ago the government was much more supportive
of middle class policies. That has changed post 1980
America via all the presidents..status quo elites
throw bailout money to the same people who created
the problems, while throwing the masses to the wolves.
Tax codes, bankruptcy laws, Glass-Steagall repeal,
property and capital gains.. all favor the wealthy.
Didn't Warren Buffet have that famous quote about his 60k secretary paying higher tax rates than he?

Rallies will happen but the trend will be down through
2011 in both equities and real estate. My friends tell
me inflation will save them...sorry, look at Japan.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124223-new-york-fed-s-model-predicts-end-of-recession-in-2009?source=feed#comment-415385 415385
by Polly Cleveland

Economists conventionally attribute the Great Depression to blunders by the then-new Federal Reserve Bank. According to this story, promoted by Milton Friedman and the Chicago School, after the stock market crash of 1929, the Fed kept interest rates too high, strangling the economy. This story made most economists confident that it couldn't happen again.

But there's a different story: the story of the giant 1920's real estate bubble. It began with cars.

Starting in 1899, the auto industry took off exponentially, dipped for two years during World War I, then took off exponentially again during the 1920's. Production reached a peak of over 4 million vehicles in 1929, before collapsing. It did not again pass 4 million until 1949!

The auto suddenly opened up vast suburban and rural areas to housing. Developers--legitimate and bogus--leapt at the opportunity. Banks jumped in too, creating so-called "shoestring mortgages"--effectivel... allowing property purchases on margin. Within a few years, tens of thousands of acres around major cities had been subdivided and sold. In rural areas, developers bought up farms, dug a pond, built a "club house" and sold cheap "vacation" lots. As reported in Homer Hoyt's classic One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, from 1918 to 1926 Chicago population increased 35% and land values rose 150%, or about 12% a year.

In 1926, land values stagnated, then fell. By 1933, Chicago land values had fallen some 70% overall; peripheral areas fell even more dramatically. After 1929, home construction collapsed, and--paralleling the auto industry--did not again pass the 1926 level until 1950. Around Detroit, over 95% of recorded lots were vacant as of 1938. Nationally, there were an estimated 20 to 30 million vacant lots, compared to about 30 million occupied housing units. According to economic historian Alex Field, the barren subdivisions ringing the cities hindered the recovery of construction: Missing titles of defaulted owners and poor physical layout created de facto brownfields.

The real estate bubble helped set off and then worsen the Depression. Collapsing land values left people suddenly much poorer, so they cut spending. They also defaulted on mortgages, sticking the banks with "toxic" assets: liens on near-worthless property. The struggling banks in turn cut off lending even to good customers. Bank runs--panicky depositors withdrawing cash--further crippled the banking system. Between drops in spending and lending, businesses failed, unemployment soared, and prices fell.

Thus a radical innovation of the early 1900's--the automobile--set off a destructive real estate bubble in the 1920's. Another radical innovation took hold in the late 1990's: "securitization", that is, the aggregation of consumer debts, especially mortgages, into marketable packages known as "collateralized debt obligations" or "CDO's." CDO's set off another giant real estate bubble by making houses "affordable" to poorer Americans. The collapse of the CDO bubble stuck banks once again with "toxic" real estate.

Fortunately, economists--and markets-- now recognize that to limit damage, we must force banks to write down the garbage quickly. But write-downs will reveal that some big banks' liabilities exceed their assets, requiring drastic remedies, including restructuring, breakup, and possibly temporary nationalization. Unfortunately, so far our new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, either lacks the nerve or the authorization. Unless he acts soon, we face another "lost decade" like the 1930's.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 00:50:57 -0500
by Polly Cleveland

Economists conventionally attribute the Great Depression to blunders by the then-new Federal Reserve Bank. According to this story, promoted by Milton Friedman and the Chicago School, after the stock market crash of 1929, the Fed kept interest rates too high, strangling the economy. This story made most economists confident that it couldn't happen again.

But there's a different story: the story of the giant 1920's real estate bubble. It began with cars.

Starting in 1899, the auto industry took off exponentially, dipped for two years during World War I, then took off exponentially again during the 1920's. Production reached a peak of over 4 million vehicles in 1929, before collapsing. It did not again pass 4 million until 1949!

The auto suddenly opened up vast suburban and rural areas to housing. Developers--legitimate and bogus--leapt at the opportunity. Banks jumped in too, creating so-called "shoestring mortgages"--effectivel... allowing property purchases on margin. Within a few years, tens of thousands of acres around major cities had been subdivided and sold. In rural areas, developers bought up farms, dug a pond, built a "club house" and sold cheap "vacation" lots. As reported in Homer Hoyt's classic One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, from 1918 to 1926 Chicago population increased 35% and land values rose 150%, or about 12% a year.

In 1926, land values stagnated, then fell. By 1933, Chicago land values had fallen some 70% overall; peripheral areas fell even more dramatically. After 1929, home construction collapsed, and--paralleling the auto industry--did not again pass the 1926 level until 1950. Around Detroit, over 95% of recorded lots were vacant as of 1938. Nationally, there were an estimated 20 to 30 million vacant lots, compared to about 30 million occupied housing units. According to economic historian Alex Field, the barren subdivisions ringing the cities hindered the recovery of construction: Missing titles of defaulted owners and poor physical layout created de facto brownfields.

The real estate bubble helped set off and then worsen the Depression. Collapsing land values left people suddenly much poorer, so they cut spending. They also defaulted on mortgages, sticking the banks with "toxic" assets: liens on near-worthless property. The struggling banks in turn cut off lending even to good customers. Bank runs--panicky depositors withdrawing cash--further crippled the banking system. Between drops in spending and lending, businesses failed, unemployment soared, and prices fell.

Thus a radical innovation of the early 1900's--the automobile--set off a destructive real estate bubble in the 1920's. Another radical innovation took hold in the late 1990's: "securitization", that is, the aggregation of consumer debts, especially mortgages, into marketable packages known as "collateralized debt obligations" or "CDO's." CDO's set off another giant real estate bubble by making houses "affordable" to poorer Americans. The collapse of the CDO bubble stuck banks once again with "toxic" real estate.

Fortunately, economists--and markets-- now recognize that to limit damage, we must force banks to write down the garbage quickly. But write-downs will reveal that some big banks' liabilities exceed their assets, requiring drastic remedies, including restructuring, breakup, and possibly temporary nationalization. Unfortunately, so far our new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, either lacks the nerve or the authorization. Unless he acts soon, we face another "lost decade" like the 1930's.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124063-five-predictions-for-this-market?source=feed#comment-415382 415382
by Polly Cleveland

Economists conventionally attribute the Great Depression to blunders by the then-new Federal Reserve Bank. According to this story, promoted by Milton Friedman and the Chicago School, after the stock market crash of 1929, the Fed kept interest rates too high, strangling the economy. This story made most economists confident that it couldn't happen again.

But there's a different story: the story of the giant 1920's real estate bubble. It began with cars.

Starting in 1899, the auto industry took off exponentially, dipped for two years during World War I, then took off exponentially again during the 1920's. Production reached a peak of over 4 million vehicles in 1929, before collapsing. It did not again pass 4 million until 1949!

The auto suddenly opened up vast suburban and rural areas to housing. Developers--legitimate and bogus--leapt at the opportunity. Banks jumped in too, creating so-called "shoestring mortgages"--effectivel... allowing property purchases on margin. Within a few years, tens of thousands of acres around major cities had been subdivided and sold. In rural areas, developers bought up farms, dug a pond, built a "club house" and sold cheap "vacation" lots. As reported in Homer Hoyt's classic One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, from 1918 to 1926 Chicago population increased 35% and land values rose 150%, or about 12% a year.

In 1926, land values stagnated, then fell. By 1933, Chicago land values had fallen some 70% overall; peripheral areas fell even more dramatically. After 1929, home construction collapsed, and--paralleling the auto industry--did not again pass the 1926 level until 1950. Around Detroit, over 95% of recorded lots were vacant as of 1938. Nationally, there were an estimated 20 to 30 million vacant lots, compared to about 30 million occupied housing units. According to economic historian Alex Field, the barren subdivisions ringing the cities hindered the recovery of construction: Missing titles of defaulted owners and poor physical layout created de facto brownfields.

The real estate bubble helped set off and then worsen the Depression. Collapsing land values left people suddenly much poorer, so they cut spending. They also defaulted on mortgages, sticking the banks with "toxic" assets: liens on near-worthless property. The struggling banks in turn cut off lending even to good customers. Bank runs--panicky depositors withdrawing cash--further crippled the banking system. Between drops in spending and lending, businesses failed, unemployment soared, and prices fell.

Thus a radical innovation of the early 1900's--the automobile--set off a destructive real estate bubble in the 1920's. Another radical innovation took hold in the late 1990's: "securitization", that is, the aggregation of consumer debts, especially mortgages, into marketable packages known as "collateralized debt obligations" or "CDO's." CDO's set off another giant real estate bubble by making houses "affordable" to poorer Americans. The collapse of the CDO bubble stuck banks once again with "toxic" real estate.

Fortunately, economists--and markets-- now recognize that to limit damage, we must force banks to write down the garbage quickly. But write-downs will reveal that some big banks' liabilities exceed their assets, requiring drastic remedies, including restructuring, breakup, and possibly temporary nationalization. Unfortunately, so far our new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, either lacks the nerve or the authorization. Unless he acts soon, we face another "lost decade" like the 1930's.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 00:49:36 -0500
by Polly Cleveland

Economists conventionally attribute the Great Depression to blunders by the then-new Federal Reserve Bank. According to this story, promoted by Milton Friedman and the Chicago School, after the stock market crash of 1929, the Fed kept interest rates too high, strangling the economy. This story made most economists confident that it couldn't happen again.

But there's a different story: the story of the giant 1920's real estate bubble. It began with cars.

Starting in 1899, the auto industry took off exponentially, dipped for two years during World War I, then took off exponentially again during the 1920's. Production reached a peak of over 4 million vehicles in 1929, before collapsing. It did not again pass 4 million until 1949!

The auto suddenly opened up vast suburban and rural areas to housing. Developers--legitimate and bogus--leapt at the opportunity. Banks jumped in too, creating so-called "shoestring mortgages"--effectivel... allowing property purchases on margin. Within a few years, tens of thousands of acres around major cities had been subdivided and sold. In rural areas, developers bought up farms, dug a pond, built a "club house" and sold cheap "vacation" lots. As reported in Homer Hoyt's classic One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, from 1918 to 1926 Chicago population increased 35% and land values rose 150%, or about 12% a year.

In 1926, land values stagnated, then fell. By 1933, Chicago land values had fallen some 70% overall; peripheral areas fell even more dramatically. After 1929, home construction collapsed, and--paralleling the auto industry--did not again pass the 1926 level until 1950. Around Detroit, over 95% of recorded lots were vacant as of 1938. Nationally, there were an estimated 20 to 30 million vacant lots, compared to about 30 million occupied housing units. According to economic historian Alex Field, the barren subdivisions ringing the cities hindered the recovery of construction: Missing titles of defaulted owners and poor physical layout created de facto brownfields.

The real estate bubble helped set off and then worsen the Depression. Collapsing land values left people suddenly much poorer, so they cut spending. They also defaulted on mortgages, sticking the banks with "toxic" assets: liens on near-worthless property. The struggling banks in turn cut off lending even to good customers. Bank runs--panicky depositors withdrawing cash--further crippled the banking system. Between drops in spending and lending, businesses failed, unemployment soared, and prices fell.

Thus a radical innovation of the early 1900's--the automobile--set off a destructive real estate bubble in the 1920's. Another radical innovation took hold in the late 1990's: "securitization", that is, the aggregation of consumer debts, especially mortgages, into marketable packages known as "collateralized debt obligations" or "CDO's." CDO's set off another giant real estate bubble by making houses "affordable" to poorer Americans. The collapse of the CDO bubble stuck banks once again with "toxic" real estate.

Fortunately, economists--and markets-- now recognize that to limit damage, we must force banks to write down the garbage quickly. But write-downs will reveal that some big banks' liabilities exceed their assets, requiring drastic remedies, including restructuring, breakup, and possibly temporary nationalization. Unfortunately, so far our new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, either lacks the nerve or the authorization. Unless he acts soon, we face another "lost decade" like the 1930's.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124063-five-predictions-for-this-market?source=feed#comment-415375 415375 Yes, counter rallies will come along...dow to under 4000.
This is an "L" and life will not be the same for my generation..
the damage is to deep on to many levels... not to mention
the corrupt leaders intent on taxing people into poverty.

Stop down in South Florida and look at all the brown lawns..
it's depressing down here... Real estate has fallen off a cliff and
has at least 3 more years of downside to weed out foreclosures.
People here are just starting to realize it's over..middle classes wiped out... pilots, realtors, dentists, yacht industries, hotel, restaurant, financial
services, merchants... I could give you a long list of successful people who
are losing their homes...not flippers either.

Go read some books on the depression- here's one:
"Hanging on or How to Get Through a Depression and Enjoy Life"
or "Only Yesterday" by Frederic Lewis Allen.

What happened to civil unrest in this country.. bonus marchers...
war protest, Vietnam, Watergate... we, including me, are nothing more
than domesticated sheep.. no stomach to tackle the octopus in power.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 00:44:48 -0500 Yes, counter rallies will come along...dow to under 4000.
This is an "L" and life will not be the same for my generation..
the damage is to deep on to many levels... not to mention
the corrupt leaders intent on taxing people into poverty.

Stop down in South Florida and look at all the brown lawns..
it's depressing down here... Real estate has fallen off a cliff and
has at least 3 more years of downside to weed out foreclosures.
People here are just starting to realize it's over..middle classes wiped out... pilots, realtors, dentists, yacht industries, hotel, restaurant, financial
services, merchants... I could give you a long list of successful people who
are losing their homes...not flippers either.

Go read some books on the depression- here's one:
"Hanging on or How to Get Through a Depression and Enjoy Life"
or "Only Yesterday" by Frederic Lewis Allen.

What happened to civil unrest in this country.. bonus marchers...
war protest, Vietnam, Watergate... we, including me, are nothing more
than domesticated sheep.. no stomach to tackle the octopus in power.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124109-ge-the-decimation-continues?source=feed#comment-415347 415347 what position have they placed the company or in a bigger picture this country .
No parachutes.. let's start over.. the next guy can't possible do worse..

I only hope Obama starts to back up some of the campaign promises..
appears he is content to let the train wreck at full speed.. unless I am
missing something in his same old same old policies and cabinet picks..
We in the masses are going to have to do something drastic to shake up
policy making at all levels.. government refuses to do the right thing...
taxation in the last ten years blows my mind..unrelenting assaults.
left of the philosophy that the founders put in place..
]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 00:13:44 -0500 what position have they placed the company or in a bigger picture this country .
No parachutes.. let's start over.. the next guy can't possible do worse..

I only hope Obama starts to back up some of the campaign promises..
appears he is content to let the train wreck at full speed.. unless I am
missing something in his same old same old policies and cabinet picks..
We in the masses are going to have to do something drastic to shake up
policy making at all levels.. government refuses to do the right thing...
taxation in the last ten years blows my mind..unrelenting assaults.
left of the philosophy that the founders put in place..
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123799-how-will-this-depression-differ-from-previous-ones?source=feed#comment-411270 411270
Look at California.. just raised sales taxes, user fees, several other taxes.
Florida in a depression wants higher property taxes...
higher water and utility rates....gasoline taxes..
higher license fees and tag fees...

We live in a mature society that won't address internal problems of
size of government, corruption and lobbies, military spending, entitlements.

]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:09:55 -0500
Look at California.. just raised sales taxes, user fees, several other taxes.
Florida in a depression wants higher property taxes...
higher water and utility rates....gasoline taxes..
higher license fees and tag fees...

We live in a mature society that won't address internal problems of
size of government, corruption and lobbies, military spending, entitlements.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123561-are-we-headed-back-to-1980?source=feed#comment-410437 410437 75%-80% correction for dow and boom real estate.
just my theory... about 40% to go?]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 23:51:05 -0500 75%-80% correction for dow and boom real estate.
just my theory... about 40% to go?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123152-thoughts-on-apocalyptic-prophesy?source=feed#comment-405777 405777 gold is speculated like anything else.

But it could stay strong for years just like the dow and real estate
markets could stay weak for years. One has to look at the big
picture here.. look at the dow 1929-1952 chart. We could see
75-80% corrections in equities and speculative real estate based on
history.

With the global uncertainty, I would expect gold to continue like
the dollar as a safe haven for many people.]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 10:19:29 -0500 gold is speculated like anything else.

But it could stay strong for years just like the dow and real estate
markets could stay weak for years. One has to look at the big
picture here.. look at the dow 1929-1952 chart. We could see
75-80% corrections in equities and speculative real estate based on
history.

With the global uncertainty, I would expect gold to continue like
the dollar as a safe haven for many people.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123148-gold-s-devilish-advocate?source=feed#comment-405760 405760 and any equity or real estate investment.

It could drop.. I'm not that smart to predict.
IMO the drop is after the economy recovers and that could take years at
this point. It's a safe haven and a trade against the dow.. I see the dow
much lower.. so gold should at minimum hold it's ground and perhaps
rise towards 1500-2000, based on historical trends.
In troubled times we humans tend to get religion and go back to
ancient methods of survival.. gold fits that scenario.
]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 10:14:32 -0500 and any equity or real estate investment.

It could drop.. I'm not that smart to predict.
IMO the drop is after the economy recovers and that could take years at
this point. It's a safe haven and a trade against the dow.. I see the dow
much lower.. so gold should at minimum hold it's ground and perhaps
rise towards 1500-2000, based on historical trends.
In troubled times we humans tend to get religion and go back to
ancient methods of survival.. gold fits that scenario.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123140-the-start-of-a-springtime-oil-rally?source=feed#comment-405743 405743 to consolidate in the $30-$60 range.

very bullish long term but this year will destroy whatever confidence
is remaining... jobs are disappearing and salaries cut back.
Equities will be much lower, no support for these PE ratios.
Real Estate is the ultimate moral killer.. direct hit on ones outlook..
When your home drops 60%, you take a different look at what this all
means to you. ]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 10:07:01 -0500 to consolidate in the $30-$60 range.

very bullish long term but this year will destroy whatever confidence
is remaining... jobs are disappearing and salaries cut back.
Equities will be much lower, no support for these PE ratios.
Real Estate is the ultimate moral killer.. direct hit on ones outlook..
When your home drops 60%, you take a different look at what this all
means to you. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122777-is-gold-really-a-safe-haven?source=feed#comment-404641 404641 let's see where the line gets drawn in the sand..
hoping around 920-925...

Eventually everything corrects to the mean but
gold should do well in these very testing times we live.
I stick to my idea of a 2/1 dow-gold in the next 2+
years.

does need to hold 800-850 support imo.

]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 12:19:57 -0500 let's see where the line gets drawn in the sand..
hoping around 920-925...

Eventually everything corrects to the mean but
gold should do well in these very testing times we live.
I stick to my idea of a 2/1 dow-gold in the next 2+
years.

does need to hold 800-850 support imo.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122785-strange-action-in-gold-etf-chart?source=feed#comment-404621 404621 then equities will get the attention.

My thinking is dow is headed much lower and the dollar and gold
will do well. with gold rising for another 2-3 years.. time
will tell.]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 12:11:01 -0500 then equities will get the attention.

My thinking is dow is headed much lower and the dollar and gold
will do well. with gold rising for another 2-3 years.. time
will tell.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122537-gold-correction-now-more-likely-than-not?source=feed#comment-403766 403766 money would transfer for a trade into the rally.
let's see if gold holds that 920-925 range where it broke through.

otherwise, gold should hang and eventually mount another rally
against the declining dow.. kinda the anti-dow if you will.
2/1 ratio to dow could be in the cards say 2 more years out..
3500 dow and 1700+ gold or 3000 dow and 1500 gold.
oil will eventually rise but looks like two years from now.. imo
]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 19:52:12 -0500 money would transfer for a trade into the rally.
let's see if gold holds that 920-925 range where it broke through.

otherwise, gold should hang and eventually mount another rally
against the declining dow.. kinda the anti-dow if you will.
2/1 ratio to dow could be in the cards say 2 more years out..
3500 dow and 1700+ gold or 3000 dow and 1500 gold.
oil will eventually rise but looks like two years from now.. imo
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122156-panic-gold?source=feed#comment-403760 403760
collapsing banks, trillions in spending, monetizing, who knows what is really
going on? Gold is rising form the ashes in it's oldest form and that is
safe haven. $1500-$2000+ should work given the fact that the old dow/gold
ratio is on a a steady march to 2/1. Two more years should finish the race. ]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 19:42:58 -0500
collapsing banks, trillions in spending, monetizing, who knows what is really
going on? Gold is rising form the ashes in it's oldest form and that is
safe haven. $1500-$2000+ should work given the fact that the old dow/gold
ratio is on a a steady march to 2/1. Two more years should finish the race. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122679-winners-and-losers-from-oil-contango?source=feed#comment-403756 403756 sold half my position recently and will wait to see how this this stock market
thing plays out..

If the dow is headed towards 4000-5000, then it is probably best to wait
another year or two on oil..
world economies are toast..
who is to say oil can't stay in a $25-$50 range for 3-4 years?
construction, travel, services, manufacturing..all dead in the water ]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 19:36:46 -0500 sold half my position recently and will wait to see how this this stock market
thing plays out..

If the dow is headed towards 4000-5000, then it is probably best to wait
another year or two on oil..
world economies are toast..
who is to say oil can't stay in a $25-$50 range for 3-4 years?
construction, travel, services, manufacturing..all dead in the water ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122553-5-indicators-the-economy-is-recovering?source=feed#comment-403753 403753 look at real estate prices in after say 1926..down 80% (FL-Chicago-etc)
look at the dow from 1929....down 90%
This fundamental correction has at least 2 years downside, then sideways..
I guess they call that an "L" shape.

Leverage, tax codes, outsourcing, internet, lack of manufacturing,
growth of government, military spending, entitlements...
the US economy will take years to reset.. get used to it..
]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 19:31:12 -0500 look at real estate prices in after say 1926..down 80% (FL-Chicago-etc)
look at the dow from 1929....down 90%
This fundamental correction has at least 2 years downside, then sideways..
I guess they call that an "L" shape.

Leverage, tax codes, outsourcing, internet, lack of manufacturing,
growth of government, military spending, entitlements...
the US economy will take years to reset.. get used to it..
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122022-parallels-between-stock-and-real-estate-excess-valuation?source=feed#comment-401534 401534 peak. A 500k home 3 years ago is now 200k, and last spring was probably
350k, it's happening so fast you can't get out of the way and there is
no liquidation price that seems to move properties. Looks like 1995-1998
prices will be here within 2-3 summers.

How many people in the last 10-15 years will lose their credit, their home,
their income. How many middle aged and older aged people are now permantly
destroyed, no savings, diminished income. How many families are headed
for the streets.. I know quite a few.

Falling prices are great to an extent.. however the flip side is you lose your
job or if you are in sales you no longer are selling. So massive corrections
wipe out an entire generation or two. Anyone with retirement accounts
is wiped out.. bubbles and the aftermath of bubbles is lethal stuff.]]> Tue, 24 Feb 2009 11:43:30 -0500 peak. A 500k home 3 years ago is now 200k, and last spring was probably
350k, it's happening so fast you can't get out of the way and there is
no liquidation price that seems to move properties. Looks like 1995-1998
prices will be here within 2-3 summers.

How many people in the last 10-15 years will lose their credit, their home,
their income. How many middle aged and older aged people are now permantly
destroyed, no savings, diminished income. How many families are headed
for the streets.. I know quite a few.

Falling prices are great to an extent.. however the flip side is you lose your
job or if you are in sales you no longer are selling. So massive corrections
wipe out an entire generation or two. Anyone with retirement accounts
is wiped out.. bubbles and the aftermath of bubbles is lethal stuff.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122032-cnbc-s-santelli-speaks-for-all-of-us?source=feed#comment-400571 400571 real estate or equities. Probably looking at 40-50% exposure to the
downside, maybe more.

It is an opportunity to re-regulate the whole system for future generations.
Maybe take a look at government spending via entitlements and military and
size of government.

Both parties are guilty here, they go to the same universities and work
for the same institutions, then sell out to provide a comfy lifestyle.
Ron Paul won't get in, so maybe 10-15 years from now, we the sheeple
will get serious and topple the powers and get some real reformers looking after us. Our city, state, and national governments are all hopelessly corrupt and will be the last domino to fall, and only by the will of the people. Much
more pain ahead and we are all guilty of electing these licensed criminals.

]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 17:32:45 -0500 real estate or equities. Probably looking at 40-50% exposure to the
downside, maybe more.

It is an opportunity to re-regulate the whole system for future generations.
Maybe take a look at government spending via entitlements and military and
size of government.

Both parties are guilty here, they go to the same universities and work
for the same institutions, then sell out to provide a comfy lifestyle.
Ron Paul won't get in, so maybe 10-15 years from now, we the sheeple
will get serious and topple the powers and get some real reformers looking after us. Our city, state, and national governments are all hopelessly corrupt and will be the last domino to fall, and only by the will of the people. Much
more pain ahead and we are all guilty of electing these licensed criminals.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122029-housing-bubble-the-sequel?source=feed#comment-400211 400211 These government packages won't greatly alter the big picture.

Expect another 2+ years to a bottom with slow growth for years.
Ditto with the equities markets.
Resources and taxation will hamper our generation in the coming
years as well.]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 13:26:56 -0500 These government packages won't greatly alter the big picture.

Expect another 2+ years to a bottom with slow growth for years.
Ditto with the equities markets.
Resources and taxation will hamper our generation in the coming
years as well.]]>