scotty1560

Don't Expect a Recovery Anytime Soon as Dow Makes New Bear Market Lows

stocks and real estate will correct 40-50% down before we reach bottom..
1995-1998 real estate prices and 3500-4000 dow..
timing is beyond my abilities...within two and one half years...
gold should do well... $1500-$2000 looks to be in the cards..
depressions wipe away lifetimes of investing and dreams.
structurally, the current economic model is broken for this generation.
cash.. gold...a good waterproof safe... watch your bank carefully also.
bank holidays, nationalization, moratoriums could be sooner than we think

If You're Bearish: Time Has Run Out for a Rally

" the market was successfully retesting the lows of late 1929. Of course it bottomed in July, 1932 fully 90% off its highs of 1929."

agree... the timing I can't answer.. all roads are still headed south.
equities... housing... earnings... job losses...

still feel this is only about the halfway point of this mess and we have
40-50% downward in both equities and real estate. High gold prices
and low oil prices are sending loud shock signals of the state of global
economies.

Housing Starts Not Far from Zero

disagree.. at least in South Florida.

I see close to 20 listings or price changes coming up for every sale.
We have several years inventory as we speak.
Most reports indicate foreclosures to peak in 2-3 years.. not good.
Government programs have no teeth.. no serious write down in mortgage.
Rental prices are heading South rapidly... not good for sale prices.
$5500 rentals in 2005 are now $3000-$3500...
Foreclosures are even slow to sell and sitting.
Anyone in sales is earning next to nothing and layoffs are the rule.
Expect 2-3 years to the bottom with another 35-50% decreases in price.
My prediction: 75% retraction of 2005 land cost values or 1995-98 prices.
The train is fully off the track now and buyers are long gone...
Long trend change is going on in this country and housing is ground zero..

Foreclosure Moratoriums: It's Time to Get Real

Many of you folks think everybody buying was flippers or using no money
down. Quite a few people put down 10--20% and in areas like South Florida
see their value down 60+%. So on a 500k home with 100k down, the home
is worth 200k now, and you still owe 400k. At least 200k negative on a home
you bought 3 years ago.

My thinking is to streamline and get the people out of an unmanagable
situation. These buyers have been slaughtered in masses, say 7-8 years
worth of buyers.

If they are working re-write the loan with a new appraised value, or get
them out and auction off the house for expediency. Foreclosures and short
sales are taking way to long and further depressing the situation. Short
sales are a joke, banks take months to respond, squeeze the distressed
seller for any remaining assets like retirement accounts, and have turned
off buyers from this long arduous process.

Foreclosure Moratorium List Grows

cadoggy you are correct..
every other plan is lip service band-aids.

And streamline these foreclosures..
I know many homeowner's who put 20% down and watched 3 years
later become say 200k negative from 500k original value. Now they
not only lose the home and credit, they get the bank threatening and
squeezing for every dollar left. IMO if a bank gives a loan with collateral
(house) that should be it. This threat of judgment liens leading to
bankruptcy is insane and criminal. We are taking out 10 years of
purchasers with the madness.. let them walk and liquidate.
Some areas 500k homes are now 150k.. horrible.

Obama's Housing Plan - What Will It Really Accomplish?

re-write the mortgages value down to those who have a job..
expedite the foreclosures and let the people walk with a touch of dignity
on those who can't pay.

These foreclosures should be liquidated at auction and taken off the books,
Stop bleeding these already broken homeowner's of their last dollar in
retirement and other accounts. If someone has a job, re-write the mortgage
and keep the owner productive to society.

Let the government help back the banks on the write offs. The current
solution will eliminate a generation of homeowner's and consumers.
At least this will streamline and get the foreclosure mess moved along.

12 Reasons to Short Gold

None of us know what the effects of the bailouts and depression scenario
will do to currencies or economies. It can't possibly hurt to keep some
physical gold in a portfolio.. if nothing else look at it as insurance.

What if you adjust 1980 high for inflation. What if it gets close to the
1/1 dow ratio. Anyone can make a good or bad case..

The charts look healthy and maybe global economies are not coming
back anytime soon.

I still say we are in uncharted territory and regular guidelines do not
apply.

Oil: Crashing to 30 or to 20?

oil looks bad and one has to think this is a reflection of the world
economy.. depression seems imminent with long dark days ahead.
Real Estate will be the straw that breaks the spirit of many people..
seeing your home drop 50-80% will certainly take one's spirit..
we live in a new world..

Predictably, the Dow Crashed Again

Weak Euro could mean money flowing to gold and dollars.
The fear of currency problems is starting to be taken seriously.
I've thought gold had peaked but looks wise to keep a portion
of one's portfolio in the metal.
None of us have any idea how this game will end.. all scenario's
are on the table..some quite scary.
Cash in a safe is another prudent move. Cash spread over several
banks is a prudent move. Real Estate and Equities "could"
contract 75-80% from peak.. look at the great depression charts..
todays world has a much higher leverage ratio.

What’s the Right Price for Oil?

agree on the thesis, but what is the timing?
This depression could last for years.. we are in
uncharted territory, at least for this generation.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

axelrod is so correct..
major major missed opportunity and so far Obama is missing the ball
at every angle...appointees, policy.

Obama has only a few swings at the plate before the money runs dry
and the window of opportunity vanishes....government refuses to get
serious about regulation and has yet to come up with a strategy that
makes any sense.... all paths lead down.

Radical Solution to Housing Mess

The best thing government can do is expedite this whole thing.
It's in collapse and the banks are resisting the tidal wave. Sitting
on abandoned homes or trying to squeeze borrower's IRA accounts
is not the answer.

Write the loan down if borrowers still have an income or get them out and
liquidate at absolute auction prices. Let the government back up some
of the lender write offs. Or let the bank rent the home, maybe even back to
the defaulted buyer at a workable figure.

Again, we know the collapse is here with little recourse. However, the
quicker we let this mess bottom and get homes occupied again, the
quicker we provide stability and some sense of hope to destroyed
communities. I can promise anyone that watching the value of your home
drop 60-70% is not fun and very depressing. I'm witnessing many succesful
business people with families to raise being thrown out and worse yet
harassed by lenders looking to squeeze more blood.

The thing I see is lenders procrastinating for months with offers and
blowing off potential buyers. This is a horrible strategy and in effect
radically turning off potential buyers by the whole process. One would
think the lenders must have access to the sheer volume of inventory
creeping into the market place.

Radical Solution to Housing Mess

well the problem is foreclosures.. directly or indirectly.
walks like a duck, acts like a duck.
The cycle gets more vicious by the month. People in sales
related jobs are making 50%-100% less income than 3-4 years ago.
Foreclosures sit and pull the market down hard..tighter lending
Flipping? seriously..those guys are long gone and busted in the cycle.

South Florida has wiped 6-7 years of mortgage holders out of their
homes and headed for 1998 levels. I hope it stops there.. beginning
to have my doubts.

Government or no government.. default is the only answer.
Mortgages, taxes, insurance, maintenance...the golden goose is
dead... make no mistake about it.

Government has already waited to long..
The best thing is to liquidate the homes.. let the owners walk
without saddling them even more with these judgements and debts.
Get the homes affordable and in hands of people that can maintain them.
50-60% of properties in some areas are now foreclosures.. abandoned
and depressing at best. Best to expedite the whole process and give
these areas some hope. Liquidate them via auctions and I mean
absolute auctions.. we need to find the bottom asap.

I'm hoping we stop the tide at 10 year rollback. If it breaks that say
18-24 months from now.. than we could see 1980's prices re-appear.
My theory... real estate in some areas will take 10-15 years to get back to
2005 levels. Laugh at me if you wish..come back in 2 years and see
how amusing this subject is. Taxes, technology, and outsourcing have
effectively wiped out the middle class...next on the food chain is lower
and middle upper class. Depressions have no rules.

S&P GSCI Index: Free Fall or Parachute Drop?

Price at the gas pump bottomed a month ago.
Summer driving season will be here sooner than we think.
Hurricane season as well.

Not saying oil has any big moves.. does appear to have found
support levels for this season.

Oil has many reasons to trade at $50-$60 per barrel.. based on
costs from offshore, Canadian Tar, conservation, etc.. If it stays to low
then we get the rubber band effect.

Gold ETF Inventory Increasing at Record Pace

gold/dow is one ratio and gold/oil is another.
gold/oil is stretched out, so oil needs to rally or gold appears high.
Oil is a real world indicator of economic health..

I Don't own much gold but whenever the hype gets to loud, then one starts
to wonder. Tech stocks, Real Estate, Oil.. all had the same hype.
Go read articles in the early 80's about gold.. same hype in many ways.

Not saying I'm right.. but gold is subject to the same rules as any other speculative investment.