scotty1560

2009 Economic Forecasts Ignore Demographic Shift

Steve's articles are the best..always enjoy them.
Guess what..demographics will occur in a natural fashion over time.
Parts of the country like upstate NY, PA, Ohio will deal with smaller
and aging populations, while warmer states deal with growth.
Those empty condos in Miami will become rental complexes and
the poor malls and strip centers, well...mmm...ghost towns?
I'll bet the iguanas are licking their chops about new territory.
I like upstate NY, traffic is light, still a few trees left, the lakes are nice
to...ditto Maine...life could be worse...I can always plant a garden.
I'm "hoping" they lower the school tax..less and less kids upstate.

I see no "real" recovery. 100% financing and 30 times reserves does wonders
for assets- without those artificial steroids what do we really have. We
have an non-functional, corrupt model of growth and trade. Expect lower
salaries and years of "under par" equities and real estate. Commercial
real estate was totally overbuilt, and those anchors look a little shaky.
We are "stuck in the mud", bailouts are little "band aids".

This leveraging "experiment" has uncloaked itself, we have lost and
now wait for the punishment, slow painful growth and a more humble existence. The only inflation I see is the bad kind ala Gerry Ford's "WIP - Whip Inflation Now!", where's "federal agent" Elvis when you really need him?

The good news is the airports will be less congested. Old fashioned crime
probably headed "much" higher- good for the securities providers.

Economic Efficiency Cannot Be Calculated

Great article as always and great responses, most make a lot of sense.

Our society has many problems with corruption increasing by the decade
from legal channels, military, legislation, lobbyists, tax codes, enforcement
of laws, de-regulation, currency manipulation, judges, zoning changes,manipulation of other countries, and so on. Nothing more than scams to alter a level playing field-ask Thomas Jefferson. "Eventually" complex
arrogant societies outsmart themselves- ask the Romans or Germans, it's
all in the history books with a new chapter waiting to written.

The big winner's see huge gains. Tied into the system via corporate, political,
or military, enforcement- the winners do well in a good economy or a bad economy. During down turns they go and raid countries or consolidate
business with the full backing of the government and supreme military.

The point about raiding poor countries is so true. Bully country (US) goes
in and sets up an industry using the poorest people for labor. We take
their resources and assets to make a profit for the top corporate and government leaders of both countries involved. The poor laborers are basically slave labor while the jobs are moved out of our country, therefore hurting our labor. So yes I can buy my khaki pants for a few bucks less, but in the much bigger picture I am diminishing my stable multi-tiered "ecosystem" of my area from blue collar labor to mom and pop operators. Again, only the top of the food chain gets the real benefits from both countries- so both loose.

The cycle will continue until society "gets it". We have a major imbalance lacking a stable healthy middle class system here. Manufacturing is only the most obvious step- health care, technology, finance, etc can all be sent abroad at lower costs to benefit a few CEO's- the "masses" in our country will need to abapt to a much lower standard of living if we are to subsidize the elitists at the cost of the rest of the working force. The upper "white collar" guy is now in the
"sights" of the elitists, he will be the next meal ticket-nice deep pockets.

Time to elect a third party candidate and shake up the establishment- it won't be easy, they have all the tools and all the resources- expect the slow decline to continue during our lifetime. The "sheople" are blind in their fish bowls.
The two parties are nothing more than corporate reps. Leaders like Henry Ford
or Andrew Mellon are long dead, and with them goes a little more of the
"true" leadership that made this country the superpower it is.