scotty1560

The Real Rationale Behind Current Supply and Demand for Oil and Other Commodities

Tend to think people will procrastinate on medical and dental visits during
a downturn... these are luxuries for the working class...ask your dentist.

Like a lot of the authors opinions though.

My thinking on oil consumption is similar to alcoholic's addiction. If an alcoholic has a bottle of wine or beer sitting around a house, then there is a good chance they will eventually have to have it. So, if gas prices stay down as they are, then I expect most will take the bait and increase driving- they may avoid vacations, but they will drive more miles. I myself think less about filling the tank than six months ago. So while gas/oil used in industries like construction may stay down, I see drivers going back to old habits at these prices, myself included. Oil prices should sneak up towards Memorial Day.
OPEC and oil is the champ...never count out the champ. A little action from
Russia, maybe a little terrorism threat, maybe a hurricane. Thinks seem
awfully calm at the moment.

The big question is inflation..deflation..... My vote is stagflation via years of flat real economic and asset growth but inflationary cost of living growth effecting human's core needs: fresh water, "real" food, energy. More people will rent and owners will put off home improvements, so Home Depot and real estate related services are probably dead for years.

How about bringing in Bill Parcell's for bringing in real vehicles of growth?
For 10+ years "our" football team has had nothing but gimmick's from the coaches: Al Greenspan's low rates, tax codes to favor second homes and home purchases, de-regulation leading to gimmick after gimmick from the lending and financial worlds, hedge funds, swaps....every trick in the coach's playbook. Now that the playbook is exposed the coach looks at his team and says: we stink. No resources, no manufacturing, or true engines of growth on this team....better get Parcell's, he can turn it around.