scotty1560

Winners and Losers from Oil Contango

uso has certainly been a loser for me..
sold half my position recently and will wait to see how this this stock market
thing plays out..

If the dow is headed towards 4000-5000, then it is probably best to wait
another year or two on oil..
world economies are toast..
who is to say oil can't stay in a $25-$50 range for 3-4 years?
construction, travel, services, manufacturing..all dead in the water

OPEC Wants Less Speculation on Oil Futures

Economic growth is dead for years...we are just going to have to accept
that fact...overbuilt..over consumed..over leveraged..no checks & balances..

Anything tied to growth including oil is going to stay in a trading range
with the exception of geo conflct...

My guess is some regulation will find it's way to equities and lending..
we now know the downside of deregulation...

Foreclosures have to run their course...banks will need to collapse or
consolidate...US needs more balanced trade...these issues won't be
solved in 6 months or even 2 years....Myself, like many are starting to live
in fear of my savings liquidity, earning powers, debt service.

Three Items That Will Signal a Crude Recovery

oil like equities, real estate, gold, credit, etc..might have hit a generational peak..these events could take 15-20 years to cleanse...look at Japan's equities...gold in the 1980's....US equities in the 1929-1950 time line....

the boomers have peaked on consumption in the US and much of the post
WWII countries....will take till 2020-2025 to see the next major boom....
watch your cash..be careful of your banks and a bank holiday at some point..

that said I own USO...hoping for one good rally in the next few months..
since I'm in the peak oil camp...will keep a core holding as insurance
for peak oil or the possibility of inflation hitting commodities...

Oil Price Lower on Inventory Numbers, But It Can't Go Much Lower

wzen could be right....we could be headed towards depression and that will
kill oil prices for years....

I believe in peak oil but again we are in a unique world deflation of bubbles...
demographics via the aging baby boomer not only in the US but Japan, Germany, parts of S America, etc.......credit bubbles...asset bubbles...

wouldn't count on bubbles for 10-15 years...will have rallies and dips..
might have a mini bubble this year from government stimulus...

Oil: Our Biggest Ally

understand the point about higher oil forcing people to conserve and forcing
alternative energy...all for it.

Not in favor of massive bubbles and speculation..so high prices really benefit who? not the driver or the consumer..would prefer to see price controls to
create stability to consumers and propucers..$40-$50 barrel?

That said we are likely headed via the scenic route towards depression...
long term style...say 15-20 years...so oil and virtually every asset class may
see prices unimaginable...be careful 2010-2011...perfect storm is here..
credit bubble...demographic bubble...multi asset bubble..stay liquid...
hopefully we get a counter rally in here for 6 months soon....real estate
and stocks will take years to reach 05-07 levels...

60 Minutes on Oil: Did Anyone Verify Anything?

one other little note...growing up in the 70's gas was maybe 30 cents a gallon...
it was $4.50 a few months ago....

can it stay down a year or two...yes...will it be significantly higher as I age..
I say yes....just like food, water, and taxes....and eventually raw land..

of course part of that is a weakening dollar...but resources get scarcer by the decade....speculation or no speculation...

60 Minutes on Oil: Did Anyone Verify Anything?

don't forget two things people...
the dollar is strong and this is off season for the oil market...

the summer should give a better feel for demand...
as far as the dollar it sure acts like it will stay strong for most or all of this year..geopolitical could change things...otherwise $30-$50 might be it for this year.

guessing we see a bottom in the next 4-6 weeks...$27-$29 is the number I
grabbed from a hat....will buy more USO if it gets there.

Why Oil Will Head Higher

1977...could be right in a sense...

If we are headed toward depression scenario than everything collapses..
oil..gold...equities.....

it's scary but that is one of 3 or 4 scenarios one must eye...

We could go "W" recession towards summer or fall as well.

Personally, I think oil has bottomed....geopolitic... concerns...
if oil stays low than we can bank on world war III in some modern
form....collapsing world economies and resource requirements are
major concerns....of course that would be bullish for oil...

Best scenario is keep oil at $40-$60...we need the producers to stay
afloat and consumers with affordable pump prices..

Crudomania Is Over

$20 a barrel to $70 a barrel...wow...that's a lot to think about..

There are more countries joining the machine and auto era in the last 10 years..
and it appears China has formed stronger alliances with more oil partners in the
Middle East than the US...we will regret that imo....also expecting much more
violence in the world...bad economies tend to make people testy...a cloaked
version of World War III is on the table imo...economies need resources...

On the other hand...if oil stays below $30 for any length of time that I would
interpreting us and the world as collapsing into depression scenario...
oil is so linked to growth that one would say we are in deep do do....

$40-$65 makes some sense to me...keeps the producers happy, yet
still affordable for our country....$25 a barrell leads me to think the
dow and gold are going to get cut in half....which they might..we live in
interesting times and are probably in round 3 or 4 or a 9 round fight..
hard to say the outcome on this one...

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

Chris B...I'm profiting from the skirmish to!.....nice week to be an investor...

Like I say...a little bit of war drums here...throw in a category 4 storm there..
Count on our Russian and Middle East friends to keep hyping up those prices...

USO is off the canvas and counter-punching.....

Nowhereman...neutral on gold...no guts either way...no guts, no glory...
only into physical anyway....looks like dollar has more to go with
Euro rate cuts...not good for gold short term...hold what I have and
add if I see $650-$700.

Iraq Production, Conservation Could Keep Oil Price in Check for Years

imo US has a problem...China is securing much of the Middle East oil with
the exception of the Saudi's....South America does not help...we really have
a problem down the road...just my opinion of course..

The oil we will procure will cost dramatically more...poor strategies in the
Middle East will come back to haunt us...imperative for this country to
continue on new sources and hybrid-alternative vehicles.

If I'm wrong ok- cheaper to fill my car and my cost of living stays sustainable..... If I'm right ok...my USO shares will pay for that 100 acres I'm itching to secure... win win strategy...now for a food strategy

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

The war would have to escalate to be much more of a factor in oil imo.
How many of these little oil spikes have we seen for years..traders.
I do think oil overshot to the downside..

Gold...that is something I can't make a decison on...I'm not in love with
the long term charts...there is much speculation right now and that bothers
me when people get too bullish..still think assets decline or go flat with a
few rallies like we are having....reluctant to add to my position or sell..

Iraq Production, Conservation Could Keep Oil Price in Check for Years

Realsit - you have a point. Might take a few years to realize...but
5-10 years will fly by and this will influence everything from food
production to travel, yachts, transportation, food, healthcare...

New projects and alternative energy need government backing...
why wait till we are paying $6-$8 a gallon. The process will expedite
in a few years time..

Can't imagine Iraq will have smooth sailing in the future...one of the most
unstable areas in the world..Iran could be back in the picture at any time..
watch what that does for oil prices..