scotty1560

U.S. Dollar Strength and Implications for Gold

Real Estate in South Florida...off about 50-60% and worsening..
Oil prices....off about 70-75%.

What makes gold so special? I know the arguments and I own some...
that said it it had a nice run and has held up.....yea, so did real estate..

Nothing is safe in the current environment....like rolex said in a post...
we might start worrying about our bank and equity accounts...
oil producing countries could start to collapse...

One more shake out on the dow and we will see some real panic...
run on the banks and bank holidays...I fear the darkest days lie ahead...
maybe this year...maybe next year...this is big.

Predicting Oil Prices Through Gold

gold is a tough call....

I do have respect for Marc Faber who is bullish gold and metals...
one of those things that will play out over a 3-4 year period..good or
bad...depending on the effect of government printing and stimulus..

none of us really know how this thing plays out..if depression is on the
table then everything is dead for the next 3-5 years...

As Good as Gold?

I own physical gold, own some residential real estate, own some oil (USO),
and some REO funds.

It makes me a little nervous when I hear how great gold
or any asset is- 3 years ago real estate couldn't fail because of the
growth rate? 12 months ago oil couldn't fail because of peak oil?
10 years ago tech stocks couldn't fail? Tbills? US dollar? gold?

This time it's gold because of currency collapse and hedge value?
I look at a six year chart of gold and it makes me a little nervous-
looks like any other asset that's moved a long way- I look at the
price per barrel of oil at 20x25 times a barrel, that scares me.
If oil can collapse 75-80%, what would make any asset bullet proof.

I have no idea if the US dollar is long term bearish or bullish-
lots of good arguments either way you play it. It does seem the
world is in a full blown contraction with inflation no where in sight
for a long time- so assets including gold will contract. Terrorism
or war could change that quickly. I wouldn't count on a currency
collapse or weak dollar.

Peter Schiff , Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, etc- all make sense and
are smart fellows. I am a fan of these guys and Ron Paul's
and G Edward Griffin's "Fed Reserve" abolishment.
Some have big positions in gold and rightfully are "cheer leaders" -
what else can they be. I for one have been burned way to many times
to count on any theory- my freinds that bought gold circa 1980
remind me of this all the time- nothing is a sure thing right now.

If one plans a 10-15 year hold than you will be rewarded on about any
play, otherwise best to watch from the sidelines.Mr Market will gladly take your money right now- best to be ultra cautious.