Prop Trading Al

Economy Might Suffer, But That Won't Prevent a Stock Rally

If you are basing your optimism on the history of the great depression, then you should know the history...true the market did decline 89% from 1929 to 1932, but there is the little issue of the ~50% bear market rally from Nov/29 to Apr/30, or over 6 months, not that different than what has happened since March/2009 to present. After that rally, the market fell ~85% from Apr/30 to Jul/32 before starting the rebound you think will be the historical guideline for today. Methinks you may be a couple years and a few hundred points on the SP early.

The CDS Rally Is Over

One reason for a large single name purchases - Accounts are sitting on big MTM gains in Corp bonds they can't sell since they need to be invested, so they buy CDS to hedge out.

A Delve Into the Spring 2009 Rally in Equities

A very well presented connecting of the dots. I trade CDS and nowhere is the short squeeze more evident than in fixed income right now. We've had massive moves tighter in spreads as shorts have been bailing out of positions and the broker-dealers refuse to transact in any menaingful size. Panic Buying/Selling + limited liquidity = unsustainable moves, both higher and lower.

Battle of the U.S. Wireless Giants: AT&T vs. Verizon

just a comment about the FiOS/U-Verse debate. incorrect to compare them to each other as they are not directly in competition due to geographic separation of the wireline business. the proper analysis would be to compare the quality/service against the local cable and satellite provider. so how does FiOS compare to Comcast HD/Internet offering/price points.

Hewlett-Packard May Not Be on Sound Footing

Everyone should talk their book, its called putting your money where your mouth is.

Cuomo Pitting Thain vs. Lewis: One of Them Will be in Big (Legal) Trouble

This is a shrewd and calculated political move by Cuomo. He wants to run for Governor and could seal the deal by having a nice trophy conviction to hold up for the voters. Thain in jail for contempt looks good, Ken Lewis convicted of perjuring himself in front of Congress looks even better, its a win-win. He's not standing up for the little man, he's a politcal shark who smells blood in the water.

The Scariest Chart Ever

The big difference between post-1946 and post -2008 will be that the consumer was starved with demand for "things" after two decades of doing without not bloated with useless materialistic possessions like we are today. That may make for a fundamental difference in the supply/demand curve.....


On Jan 20 05:07 PM Crocodilian wrote:

> On Jan 20 04:16 PM Stephen Webb wrote: