Schneidehouse

Sovereign Risk Remains Important to Markets

MM, I feel your pain on the hits of 2009. I wish I had an 'anti Dave' trading program this year. Whatever bet I made, put 10% towards my call, and automatically re-route 90% against ... I would have done much better ...

Sovereign Risk Remains Important to Markets

MM, I feel your pain on the hits of 2009. I wish I had an 'anti Dave' trading program this year. Whatever bet I made, put 10% towards my call, and automatically re-route 90% against ... I would have done much better ...

Why the GDP Number Thursday May Be a Lose/ Lose Situtation

Well, the response was the exact opposite of your prediction in the USD. At 8:30 the USD was 1.4722 and as I write this at 8:55 it is now 1.4785. GDP was 3.5%, slightly above estimates. We'll see how well you do during the day.

The Intrinsic Value of Nothing, Part 1

The carrot that I just grew in my back yard that I intend to eat has value to me, and me only.


On Oct 27 10:58 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> Paco - - -
>
> Good article, but I have a philosophical bone to pick.
>
> You wrote:
>
> "Nothing in this universe has intrinsic value; every single thing
> you possess, want to possess, use, can use, have used, can offer,
> have offered, or will offer is valuable only if someone else finds
> it valuable."
>
> You have defined value in terms of exchange. I would argue that is
> too narrow a definition. There are things with intrinsic value independent
> of any medium of exchange. Exchange is merely one way, but not the
> only way, to define value.
>
> I maintain that anything necessary for my existence has intrinsic
> value. Air to breathe, water to drink and food to eat have intrinsic
> value. The value has a binary measurement: either I have these things
> and exist or one is missing and I don't exist.
>
> Most economists make their definitions based on commerce. The basics
> of existence don't come into the equation, except for a few fringe
> operatives who play with things like "happiness indexes".
>
> Ultimately, all of the "commercial" definitions of value are secondary
> to the "existence" definition of value. We lose sight of that and
> many externalities result, which repetitively blow apart the best
> of economic theories. Throughout history societies and civilizations
> have failed because of resource exhaustion. They thrived on commerce
> and decayed on the basis of not sufficiently supporting existence.
>
>
> There absolutely are things with a real intrinsic value.
>
> I know this is outside the scope you intended to address, but I just
> had to have my rant.

Does This Chart Say Short Real Estate, Buy Equities?

This chart means nothing to me at all.

VIX ETN: Ineffective as Both Short-Term, Long-Term Play

Why not just short it and let the 'slow leak' go to work for you?

Poor PMI Report: Good News for Markets

Perfect timing, man.

Investing: What to Do When the Music Pauses

Very insightful commentary. I have been trying like hell to figure out why the markets keep rising without a decent pullback. It will be interesting to see what people do when that pullback does occur - if they think we're headed back below March and dump (so they're not the last one standing), or ride it out. Unusual times for sure. Thank you for something else to consider.

Neitzsche or Roubini? Mixed Bag Markets

I am in a different place than you risk-wise, but I really like how you write and that you share your reasons for what you do. Too many writers (and commentors) don't state their timeframes, so one person's 6 week outlook is different from another's 2 year outlook. They both might believe the same thing will happen in the long-run, but are at different points in the timeline, and then they start arguing. Anyway, enough rambling - thanks for the consistent, accurate, clear articles.

When Wall Street Just Doesn't Get It

Nice article. Only time will tell - and it will tell. The pain for those who misread the contraction ahead will be great.

Seven Uncomfortable Predictions for the Economy

OK, so you say that SRS doesn't have enough weak companies to use as a proxy for CRE/REIT, and I am very afraid of picking individual companies to short, does anyone know where I can find the best ETF/ETN to short the CRE/REIT and insurance industry? Are there any 2x or 3x short ETF/ETNs out there?

P.S. I happen to agree with your analysis as well (unfortunately).

Heads Up on the Dollar Today: The World's Reserve Currency Is Changing

It isn't going to happen. You can't force a "World Reserve Currency", it happens on its own. They can talk all they want, but there won't be ANY change any time soon.

U.S. Government Changes Message, Boosts Confidence - For Now

Nice analysis.

As for the government holding certificates, this is the sort of thing that can whack you in the head and make you say "why didn't I think of that...". It makes perfect sense.

I think the S&P will hit a new low in March, but when the M2M rule change hits, I plan on being in FAS. Multi-month bear market rally with financials leading the way (I can't believe I am saying this).

Now, what to do about credit card defaults, option adjustable rates, and Alt-A resets . . .

Bearish Sentiment in the Gold, Stock and Commodity Markets

That was funny!


On Mar 11 04:25 PM Rokjok777 wrote:

> Mail out 100,000 free investment newsletters, 50,000 saying the market
> will go up, 50,000 saying it will go down. After one month, mail
> out 50,000 more to the group that got the right advice, this time
> 25,000 saying the market wil go up, 25,000 saying it will go down.
> One month later, same thing, mail out 12,500 to the group that got
> the right advice. repeat. Once you're down to 3,125 people who think
> you're a genius, send them all a note saying your newsletter now
> costs $1000/year. Voila!

Alternatives to Buy and Hold (Part II)

Quick question . . . why not go short on the index instead of going to cash?