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  • Sri Lanka's Investment Story Now [View article]
    Hi Jon

    Hope you have recovered fully. Thank you for sharing your research work and sending me your message through LinkedIn.

    I wish you a New Year Filled With Peace, Joy, Health and Happiness!
    Jan 5, 2014. 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capture Frontier Asia Growth [View article]
    We can learn lot of things from this article. Thank you.

    Some of the factors to watch in frontier markets are:

    Number of mouths in these countries due to increased population
    They have just set out on the path to economic and social progress
    They are much earlier state of economic development than larger emerging markets
    We can reasonably expect exceptional growth through the middle of the century in some Asian and African frontier economies
    They can become the market of tomorrow.
    Growth of a middle-class consumer society
    Increased demand products and services in addition to production and export of natural resources
    Development of infrastructure, including the transportation and communication networks

    In short these countries need more things and services in the coming years.

    They will need more cement,oil,cars, salt, meat, coal, bio fuel, gas, timber, tea and coffee, vegetables, fruits, potatoes, wheat, rice, dairy products etc. They will travel more and their tourism industry will expand.

    Education standard will improve and more people will play with internet.

    Already Nestle is expanding their businesses in these areas and they have become one of the clear winners in the food sector. There are well managed home based companies as well.

    Some out of favour groups can give some of the biggest returns in these frontier markets in the coming decade.

    Even Boeing will supply more jets to these fast developing frontier markets in the coming years.

    Brazil and US based meat and grain producers will have great opportunities in the coming years.

    Countries such as New Zealand and Netherland will have bigger market share for their Agri-Products in these fast developing frontier markets in the coming decade.

    Those who can do home work in frontier markets may have opportunities in tourism, infrastructure, tea plantations, export companies, food companies such as poultry, grain and other protein food companies in the coming decade.
    Oct 23, 2013. 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: A Nail In The Coffin And A Stake Through The Heart [View article]
    Now is not the time to run and hide, but to be prepared to take action, in whatever form you feel comfortable with.

    I like your above golden statement. Yes it is time to make vital adjustments globally.

    Actually tapering is good for some sectors globally. In addition different markets will benefits different sectors. For example emerging market and frontier markets including India will benefit their export sector and some commodity producers. Some Financial institutions in USA, Corporate Pension Funds, money market funds and some foreign markets etc should benefit from tapering. We need more study to identify clear winners in the market. Globally consumer staples sector may shine after tapering. I believe after tapering Money will flow back from gold, corn, soya bean and oil to other bull commodities and other bull stocks globally.

    Bull Sector hunting is a must now. We should avoid coming bear sectors, bear commodities and bear currencies and should identify bull sectors, bull commodities and bull currencies before others. USD will shine strongly from 2015 onwards.
    Sep 18, 2013. 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Market Opportunities Come In Different Packages [View article]
    Market corrections and world wide events offer the clearest opportunities to embrace these actions.

    I agree with the above.

    Tapering or other events are not the end of the world. Actually some areas in the global economy will benefit lot after this tapering. It is time to identify coming bull sectors globally in developed, emerging and frontier world. In short tapering will bring sustainable development. This is good for mid and long term developments in all types of assets markets. Sooner we see tapering it is better.

    Finally it is time to study positive affects of tapering rather than taking it negatively.
    Sep 1, 2013. 04:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Or Without Tapering, The Fed's Plans Will Have Dire Consequences [View article]
    Thank you for your article.

    I believe in the short run we will see market volatility, pull back and correction in over valued markets, sectors and commodities in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets due to new development.

    Now some markets have come down due to panic situation and they have become more attractive. We should not forget USD was stagnated or went down against basket of currencies during last couple of years. Some wanted to dump the USD. Now it is one of the darlings in the market. Now USD has its day. More bull currencies will be there. Some bull currencies such as AUD and NZD will become bear currencies.

    Stock, commodity, currency and bond markets are not dead. Markets, commodities, stocks, properties and currencies never go straight up and down and never stay the same. There are cycles such as business cycles, economic cycles, currency cycles and industrial cycles etc. Just like human beings these assets also have personalities.

    Tapering is not the end of the world. Actually some areas in the global economy will benefit lot after this tapering. It is time to identify coming bull sectors globally in developed, emerging and frontier world. In short tapering will bring sustainable development. This is good for mid and long term developments in all types of assets markets. Sooner we see tapering it is better.
    Sep 1, 2013. 04:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sri Lanka's Investment Story Now [View article]
    I believe in the short run we will see market volatility, pull back and correction in over valued markets, sectors and commodities in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets. In the short run we will see some volatility in Sri-Lankan market just like other markets. In the mid and long run we will see bull markets everywhere. It is time to think about great value and mid and long term growth opportunities. It is also time to identify next bullish sectors in Sri-Lankan market. Finally it is time to study positive affects of tapering rather than taking it negatively.

    Tapering is not the end of the world. Actually some areas in the global economy will benefit lot after this tapering. It is time to identify coming bull sectors globally in developed, emerging and frontier world. In short tapering will bring sustainable development. This is good for mid and long term developments in all types of assets markets. Sooner we see tapering it is better.
    Sep 1, 2013. 03:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Investors Dive Into Frontier Markets For Great Returns? [View article]
    During May we saw strong foreign inflow and rally in frontier markets such as Pakistan, Sri-Lanka, Vietnam and Bangladesh.

    Both Sri-Lankan and Bangladesh markets had a recovery and their indexes are rising gradually having some short term vibrations time to time. During last couple of weeks we saw foreign inflow in food and beverages (including tea and tea related stocks), diversified, banking, and pharmaceutical etc in countries such as Sri-Lanka and Bangladesh.

    In some frontier markets still we cannot see much developed infrastructures facilities.
    However we can see improvement in some areas and some sectors are very attractive now. There are multinationals companies such as NEST and Unilever in these frontier markets in addition well managed locally grown companies.

    Increased population in these frontier countries in the future will eat more meat, rice, other grain and will drink more tea and coffee in the coming decade. Their availability of arable land will go down further due to economic activities. More people will use internet, mobile phones, IPods and lap top etc.

    In short different frontier markets will have different opportunities. Some countries will have different types of commodities such as spice commodities and emerging commodities.
    Jun 15, 2013. 12:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does A Big Market Correction Actually Look Like? [View article]
    Thank you for your nice article.

    During last couple of years those who over reacted to the situation lost some of the greatest opportunities in global markets. Some acted like a sky is going to fall. Stocks such as Citi Bank and few stocks had fire sales in the past and were trading around $3. Now it is trading above $40. Those who reacted to acts, fundamentals, and logic became great winners and will become winners in the future too. Actually some missed the train in global stocks markets. They didn’t miss gold market. Now they have realized that they were in the wrong place at the wrong time.

    Market pullbacks were opportunities for intelligent players. Even in the current global markets, some stocks are having pull backs due to short term factors and overreaction situations. These stocks will go up rapidly in the next uptrend. Globally some commodity stocks, consumer staples and technology stocks will give great returns in the coming quartets and years. Globally some sectors, some commodities and some stocks markets will have great bull markets.

    By looking at portfolio in this article we can get one important idea on how to select one attractive group in the coming decade in global markets. In this group we can see biggest growth in the market in the coming decade.

    What I like most in this article are:

    Successful investors already have their shopping lists, and are ready to pounce.

    Fear and greed will always wreck havoc on investor portfolios if they over-react, or use emotions to make investment decisions for them, rather than facts, fundamentals, and logic.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    May 3, 2013. 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sri Lanka's Investment Story Now [View article]
    Different frontier markets will have different opportunities at different times. In frontier markets there will be opportunities in finance, food and beverages, plantations, infrastructure and diversified sectors in the coming years and decade. However we should have strategy to pick future winners from these markets and we need some home work. If we analyse some of these markets there are different players such as long term investors, short term players and some other sophisticated players etc. At the moment we can see some foreign inflow to Colombo stock market. Some of them have targets diversified sector, retail and Tea plantations. For example if I am correct there were some foreign buying in plantations, diversified sector and retail related companies during last couple of days in the Colombo stock market.

    In one period some frontier and emerging markets will have great bull markets. During last couple of months and in 2012 we had bullish markets in Kenya, Egypt, Pakistan and Philippine etc. Similarly Next couple of months and coming years we will see bullish trend in other frontier markets. Some intelligent players including Funds became bullish on above markets before others. Now they are bullish on few Asian markets such as Bangladesh, Sri-Lanka and Vietnam. Some of these intelligent players also became bullish on developed markets such as Japan, USA, UK and Germany before others. Similarly they became bullish on emerging world such as India as well.

    In some other period some other frontier and emerging markets will have opportunities. Then some sectors can outperform other sectors due to great demand for their products within their own markets. In addition some sleeping giants in western countries such as USA, Germany, UK and Netherland will have great growth during coming years and decade due to great demand for their products from emerging world and frontier world.

    In short we will have opportunities in all types of markets in the coming decade. Just like stocks market different commodity will have bull markets at different times. WE can also find commodity oriented stocks in frontier and emerging world. Some soft commodities and some hot beverages will have demand and supply mismatch in the coming years and decade due to strong demand from emerging and frontier markets.
    Mar 15, 2013. 07:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Dollar Due To Sell Off [View article]
    We have to study reasons for Faber's call to short the Aussie dollar now.

    Pl remember no currency, commodity or stock will go straight up or down.

    Both NZD and AUD are the most overvalued currencies in the world.

    I am bearish on gold, some currencies such as AUD and NZD now. If I am correct AUD/USD has now fallen back below the 200-day moving average.

    We can see some pull back in gold market and Investors like Soros, Bacon and some other investors have cut their holdings in gold. In the mean times Japanese investors have sold AUD. In India Gold prices plunged to a six-month low.

    We can expect more selling in AUD and GOLD in the coming days and weeks
    Feb 19, 2013. 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Age Of Discovery [View article]
    I think there should be some reasons for Faber's call to short the Aussie dollar.

    Pl remember no currency, commodity or stock will go straight up or down.

    Both NZD and AUD are the most overvalued currencies in the world.

    I am bearish on gold, some currencies such as AUD and NZD now. If I am correct AUD/USD has now fallen back below the 200-day moving average.

    We can see some pull back in gold market and Investors like Soros, Bacon and some other investors have cut their holdings in gold. In the mean times Japanese investors have sold AUD. In India Gold prices plunged to a six-month low.

    We can expect more selling in AUD and GOLD in the coming days and weeks
    Feb 17, 2013. 04:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]
    I like following statements.

    Unfortunately, by investing in individual stocks, there are higher degrees of risk.

    When an issue with a stock and a company becomes clear, then we have a decision to make.
    Feb 17, 2013. 04:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sri Lanka's Investment Story Now [View article]
    Please see following link

    http://bit.ly/VOJsXq
    Feb 11, 2013. 12:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Investors Dive Into Frontier Markets For Great Returns? [View article]
    Yes I return investors should target frontier markets.

    I believe value masters, contrarian investors and intelligent players can pick wining stocks in any type of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets.

    If we do proper home work we can find massively undervalued stocks and commodities in some Asian frontier markets now.

    Some emerging investors and funds know how to pick winning frontier markets. For example Mark Mobious became bullish on African region including Nigeria in 2012. We saw great run in countries such as Kenyan, Egypt and Nigeria in 2012.

    Now Mark Mobius sees best value in frontier markets for 2013. He especially likes Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.


    .
    Feb 10, 2013. 04:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sri Lanka's Investment Story Now [View article]
    Hi Schumpeter_

    It is nice to meet you too

    Yes I agree with you that some Frontier Markets (FM) seem to lose their status as "contrarian" play. However three are great value plays provided we do home work. Yes no market will go straight up or down. I agree with some of your points. Great.

    Even in China we will see some sort of pullback or economic problems time to time. When that happens even countries like Australia can become vulnerable. Australia export lot of commodities to China. Now I am bearish on both Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar before others.

    It is very simple what happened in stocks market in the past will happen again and again in the future in a different manner. Therefore we should have some sort of our own successful investment or trading strategy. I like business only which I can understandable.

    Look because of some doom sayers in the past many lost opportunities in Europe. Only thing I can say is always there will be bull market for some commodities, some markets and some sectors. For example both Tea and Corn started their bull trend in the last quarters of 2012. Now there is shortage in black tea. Corn production has come down due to bad weather in USA. Then we need mid and long term trend analysis on some sectors, some commodities and some markets. So far in 2013 markets are up including frontier markets such as Vietnam, Sri-Lanka. You know some experienced and intelligent players both foreign and local know how to and when to invest in these markets. When valuations are very attractive we should not think twice as long as future look bright.

    Future earnings, future intermediate and long term trends are my friends.

    Time to time some sectors, markets and companies can become out of favor. So some contrarian players know how to play these markets. You know when CITI BANK was trading around $3 in the past nobody wanted to touch it due to big sell off in financial stocks globally. It became a more than $30 dollar baggar later. For my surprise one out of favor finance companies in New Zealand in the past have become more than three baggar now.

    Remembers some markets, sectors, commodities and stocks have not appreciated yet. Some are in the out of favor brackets. Some were in bear market period and just start their next bull trend.

    Stock market is a wonderful place. Everybody was talking about bad global economic shape especially about Europe, credit crisis etc. Still we had opportunities in different commodities, stocks and markets at different times.We will have more opportunities in the future.

    Just like other markets in 2011 there were heavy foreign inflows to Sri-Lankan market in 2012. Even now some players are accumulating stocks slowly. We know market has stages. Early stage of bull market, second stage etc. When final stage comes we know how market look like?

    May be I will talk about individual stocks globally when I am prepared to do it. I always concentrate on few stocks, commodities, sectors and few markets. I like only next most promising commodities, markets, sectors, groups and stocks now.

    Among global investment gurus I respect few. Their ideas are great and very valuable to me when I pick wining stocks. In addition boring is beautiful to me.

    Please see Bloomberg track on CSE Market:

    http://bloom.bg/XkEZ1V

    Snapshot for Sri Lanka Colombo Stock Exchange All Share Index (CSEALL)

    Sri Lanka Colombo Stock Exchange All Share Index

    CSEALL:IND 5,850.67 40.25 0.69% UP

    Open: 5,812.72 Day Range: 5,812.72 - 5,859.65 Year To Date: +3.68%

    Previous Close: 5,810.42 52-Week Range: 4,725.57 - 6,005.90 1-Year: +10.04%

    Index Profile Information for CSEALL

    Sri Lanka Stock Market Colombo All-Share Index is a market capitalization weighted index of all the companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange. It covers all the traded companies during a market day. The base value is established with average market value as of the year 1985.

    Best regards
    Feb 9, 2013. 11:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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