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Deepv

Deepv
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  • Why Cameco's Recent Drop Looks Like A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    This is a good opportunity in the current eggregiously priced market IMO for the patient. You all need to know that new cacacity that comes on will make long term contracts with Cameco supply. "Spot" uranium is not the key driver of this business as nuclear plants can't fool around.
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Vs. AngloGold: Balance Sheet Differences Key To Futures [View article]
    And keep in mind those AISC cost figures don't include the $50+ per ounce financing costs.
    --
    Isn't this what the sale of CC&V was about? IT is almost like your article as written without taking into account the $1bn sale and implications. NEM has 4x the market cap of AU and more debt due mainly to *perception* of balance sheet risk at AU. THe facts now who AU has a whole lot less net debt than NEM and is in a position to refi. I would consider long AU/short NEM.
    Jun 22, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Vs. AngloGold: Balance Sheet Differences Key To Futures [View article]
    "But it is a stretch to say the balance sheets are similar. Go to Morningstar and look at the maturities and yield's on Newmont's debt."

    This is an astute response and is why commentator in barrons last year said something like "NEM has a big boy b/sheet.'

    However, let us agree that AU and NEM has a similar footprint in OZ they generrate a year. Yet in your own chart NEm has more gross debt BEFORE the sale of CC&V! So nem is more indebeted by a long way than AU on debt/ounces.

    To the extent that AU has poor terms and structure vs. NEM that is true, but perhaps an opporunity post CC&V. Certainly CC&V will go along way to helping AU extinguish its highest cost debt and refi. One thing you have to consider is that AU operates in places with depreciating currencies. CC&V is a $ based asset and better in the hands of nem which has a nearby footprint. In sum I do not think the balance sheet advantage @ nem is a material factor anymore vs. AU. Furthermore if you really want a gold stock with a good balance sheet check Randgold.
    Jun 20, 2015. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Vs. AngloGold: Balance Sheet Differences Key To Futures [View article]
    AU was/is selling at a rock bottom depressed value and just got massively credit enhanced. The debt to market cap for aU was so high because market cap was so low. Take a look out the ounces(and grades!) AU puts out vs. NEM and then look at the market caps and figure it out. AU is a bargain and has similar b/sheet to NEM post the sale. It's also reducing costs quite quickly. IMO NEM is full valued while AU is a bargain and market has massively underreacted to the implications of the sale of CC&V.
    Jun 19, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Are Way Too Many Gold Companies In The World [View article]
    This article is well intentioned but unhelpful from an investment standpoint.
    Jun 10, 2015. 02:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold Finally Scraping Bottom? [View article]
    "1913 to ..."

    Yes, gold is a good store of value through long periods of time. But that does not make for an investment thesis! Fiat currency is not designed to be durable through time, it is transactional. Many important gold stocks are hitting fresh new lows eg., GG, AUY.
    Jun 10, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold Finally Scraping Bottom? [View article]
    No one was crying manipulation 2000-2007. Were manipulator on holiday?
    Jun 9, 2015. 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking David Winters' Wintergreen Advisers Portfolio - Q1 2015 Update [View article]
    Looks like big outflows causing winters to blow out of positons he was waxing on proflically about.
    Jun 9, 2015. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes Barrons, Third Avenue Is Going To Do Just Fine [View article]
    Guarav is spot on. The philosophy is great if followed, but really how many of the portfolio companies can legitimately can grow NAV 10%? Very very few. POSCO they have held for years what has that underlying biz compounded at? Not close. Getting the operating side wrong is one thing but one of the tenets of Third Avenue is "superstrong financial condition" yet how many of their holdings were exposed as HIGHLY FRAGILE/LEVERED during the financial crisis? Forest City Enterprises had/has one of the most geared b/sheeets in the business and they hold that out as a core holding. TASCX has in particicuar held mediocre business with no hope of growing like Kswiss leading to sustained underperformance. That manager is now gone replaced by a promising one who is buying stocks on 20x+ like CLH putting into question "cheap" mattering anymore. And while most American investors have never heard of the likes of Wheelock, rest assured such stocks are far from undiscovered and widely understood/followed by professional investors. Bottom line: Whitman is not in charge I would not pay these guys 1%. I would look at ARTKX and IVA as doing what Third Ave does in a better way--or used to do.
    Jun 2, 2015. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • C&C Should Be Concerned About Heineken's Entry Into Cider [View article]
    Ok so I read this article so the launch is in Irealnd. AFAIK Heieneken is already in Irealand and all of Europe with Strongbow so I'm not sure why this brand will be better. Strongbow and Heineken brand have been only available in bottles I believe. I do not think they have their own processing facilties actually. I'd be surpruised if you are gettting it over ice in a pub in Ireland.
    Jun 1, 2015. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • C&C Should Be Concerned About Heineken's Entry Into Cider [View article]
    I think he is talking about the USA market, not Ireland where C&C generates the bulk of its EBIT. Heineken has had Strongbow in Europe for a long time they are not "entering". I think it is incorrect to say there are zero barriers to entry. That only looks true in USA where there is no category heritage. You can't just enter Ireland where people have been drinking Bulmers for generations with a new cider. Notice how Cider is positioned in USA as "angry" or whatever-- that's becasue dudes in USA worry if it is a sissy drink like a wine cooler and drinks co's want to squash that stigma as fast as they can. I do notice that Woodchuck has nearly 300,000 "likes" on facebook yet Irish analyst are marking Vermont cider down to zero. Harsh.
    Jun 1, 2015. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Randgold Resources Is The Perfect Fit [View article]
    Things to address off top of my head: What is Randgold? What is the record? How does it compare to peers? What are competitive advantagers/disadvanta... What is the industry environment? What are the drivers? Who is management? What is long term NORMAL EBIT margin? Cost structure? Growth? Leverage? Cash? Hidden Assets liabilities? Capital Structure? AISC? direction of AISC? Consolidation/potential acquisitions. How to value--what tools and why--not just "spot" EBITDA ratios.
    May 19, 2015. 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Randgold Resources Is The Perfect Fit [View article]
    Zebrahit,
    I have made no statement about RAndgold (which I am very long). My comment is you can't just call an article "perfect fit" and then throw working capital, margin figures etc. and try to make it stick. AT least try to answer: What is Randgold? Why should one own it? What is its competitve positition? How shoud it be valued? Who are the people that run it? What are the risks? I'm sorry this is not "final answer" just basic expectations of any article saying something is good or not. It is like writing about a football player and saying "This OT is a perfect fit. He bench press 200 25 times. He played in college. He run 40 in 5.0. He is good dude." Really? That is your published scouting report? That is content you guys think is worth publishing??? How about Jon X is a dominant lineman. He won the outland trophy in 2015. His edge is he is a mauler with tremendous lateral quickness and punch. He is durable, having started all games in his college career. etc. I mean something that means something dude.
    May 18, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Randgold Resources Is The Perfect Fit [View article]
    David, I hate to pick on you, but your article is what is wrong with seekingalpha. If your pastiche insights and analytical content were climbing a 100 foot building they woul need to climb 10 more floors before reaching floor remedial. In order to write about stocks you should have some combination of industry experience and/or financial qualification. It is clear you are not a trained analyst and you say you are not a financial advisor. Why do you write about mining stocks then? You are probably a good guy just keep working at it but don't publish unless you can craft a cogent thesis, based on the fundamentals with a robust framework. Deep
    May 17, 2015. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chris Mancini's High-Quality Gold Miners That Have Positioned Themselves Well In The Downturn [View article]
    The stocks just haven't worked. It's hard to see a catalyst.
    May 7, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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