Deepv

Inflation Worries: Here's What We Can Learn from Japan

However, in Japan the Govt provides less of a safety net
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I like the way you think but the facts don't fit.

Inflation Worries: Here's What We Can Learn from Japan

Yea, the thing is most Japanese stocks would immediately double TODAY if they were run for ROE/EVA like most good US corporations. Things might not be as bad as they seem.

The Aftershock: Where Does the Next Investment Opportunity Lie?

mad hedge is an arrogant little shortermist rambler isn't he?

Grantham: Overvalued Markets Due for an Adjustment

I don't understand how Jeremy puts a value of the S&P at 860-- basically the same value as he gave in previous quarters. Isn't there a time value of money adjustment? Or has he revised earnigns down? Or his interest rate up.

Jeremy's valuation is on cyclically adjusted "E" but we don't have a mormal denominator. I would think that the value of stocks is very sensitive to the fact that interest rates are ZERO and we are printing money like mad.

It's Still Early Days for the TBT

Windood: So how does one play this insteaad???

Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego'

My point is that in October 2008, in the middle of panic, few people were saying the market level was unduly high. It is only that we have an anchor of lower levels of March 09 that we need to listen to all the whining bears cry foul. What if the market was simply flat Oct6 - Oct 6 with no big dips (volatility)? Would we all be perceiving the market as too high? The best measure of stock market valuations in equity market cap to GDP. It is neither too high nor too low vs historical standards. The major strucutural arguments against the market are not robust because 1) debt levels: we had huge debt levels in mid 90's and 2003 yet had big runs 2) consumer: even in Japan consumer is 50% of GDP. There are many positive structural arguments in US including companies levered to emerging market growth and growing domestic population. Don't be negative too often on the market dudes.

Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego'

THe S&P 500 was 1056 on October 6, 2008, in middle of panic selloff. Anyone who bought that day is FLAT or earning a negative rel rate of return. You are all hyper day trader and should wear anchors around your neck with the note "March 9, 2009." IT is an irrelvant date unless you were a precog. Do some bottom up analysis jokers.

Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego'

The problem with all you guys is that you are guilty of anchoring. Many fund managers letters on Sept 30 2008 talked about low valuation and "window of opportunity." We are still sitting at first week of Oct levels on the S&P. If the market had just stalled there for a year no one would be writing this sheet. You all decry volatility and don't know how markets work. Some of the biggest drivers of valuaation are ROE and interest rates. LAst time I looked companies like Kimberly Clark wwere sitting on September 11 2001 levels and growing organicalally with P/E of 13x. That implies a 7-8% return at a constant P/E even if KMB NEVER again grows earnings. However, they continue to growth very nicely. This is the market.

Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego'

You can really see the complacency on this board as the buy and holders still don't get it.
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From what I read many on this board see this as the same sugar high you do. You need to look at the world from a non-US point of view. If we have so much debt....someone is a big creditor.

Doug Kass Bearish on Equities

most pseudo skilled articulate posters on seeking alpha have been unequivocally bearish through the rally. The rally will end once these guys capituate, just as the bear phase came to and end when even the most staunch bulls capitulated or even apologized for owning stocks.

Doug Kass Bearish on Equities

Buffet is buying stocks but you jokers are talking about overvaluation even as we sit at post 9/11 prices for mny blue chips. Cash is not worth very much at 0% risk free rate. What don't you understand? You guys are sitting in front of an impending emerging markets boom obsessing about the US consumer. You just had a bear market that begain in 2000 and relapsed big times in 2008/09. Get over it and start investing.

S&P 500's PE Ratio of 139 Isn't Sustainable

This is ludicrous waste of time. What is the real world P/e of: Kimberly Clark? Cisco? Micosoft?

Dude all these S&P stocks are trading at the same price as *after* the planes hit the WTC on 9/11 and all have much higher earnings today than they did in 2001. And today the discount rate is zero.

Get with the program by using some common sense. The market has problems but valuation of blue chip S&P stocks is not one of them.

Gone Nowhere in 8 Years

Investing is an active thing. THere is no such person who buys and holds. There is a person who buys...and buys more. This is a person like me who was buying WYNN at $100, sadly, but also at $17. Now I own a lot more of that company today than I ever would have had if there was no crisis, and show a total gain on my cost basis, w/out having to stare at computer screen every moment swing trading vs high frquency dudes. The key is to buy great biz and avoid ones that will become impaired. Diversify in case unlucky. Find a great day job so you can buy more shares. And up market is terrible for people like me, because I can accumulate few shares.

Travel Centers of America: Rare Value Investing Opportunity

I think the most important data point, and what sparked interest is LUK purchases. I think we all know that C&S would not even bother with something this small in market cap if there wasn't substantial upside. You don't need to be rocket scientist to look at net cash. re: the run up, anchoring on past values is almost always unwise, low or high...

10 Notes on Risk in the Markets

The difference between an investor and a gambler is that an investor bears risk existing in the economic system in order to earn a return, whereas the gambler adds risk to the economic system that would not have existed, aside from his behavior.
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No. An investor is someone who agrees to *defer consumption* to see it grow over the LONG TERM as a BUSINESS OWNER in value creating enterprrises.

A gambler is someone who sees the market as a big casino and companies only as "stocks" to "play" and move in and out of.

There are many ways to skin a cat, but if you are gambler you better know what game you are playing in the casino.