Seeking Alpha

Deepv

Deepv
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Deepv's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Yahoo: As Alibaba Goes Public, Value Of Underlying Business Will Begin To Shine [View article]
    It's not about "interesting" it's about valuation. Core yahoo gushes cash even if that cash pile is not growing.
    Mar 31 02:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Compelling Reasons Why You Should Dump Corning [View article]
    I would worry more that GLW comes in and nukes GTAT, given GLW's latent sapphire capabilitities. In the mean time there is room for both in this huge market. It's like an article stating that monster beveridg is gonna kill pepsi.
    Mar 19 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Still NOT Worth $530 [View article]
    If you invest a $1 in Apple (ex its cash hoard), and put the PV of money aside, Apple has to earn in round #'s around $40bn a year after taxes for the NEXT 10 YEARS...just for you to actually get your $1 back. That annual nut of $40bn is more than the MARKET CAPS (ALL DISCOUNTED FUTURE VALUE) of the likes of Target, or Norfolk Southern or Yum! Brands. TO me that's quite a risk in a field like technology where today's hero is yesterdays Nokia. Do you know that in the last 15 years there's been several years where Apple LOST money? Sure it looks rosy in the apple store for now... PRice is what you pay , value is what you get, and Apple is besot by the law of large maths. Don't get confused by the P/E ratio!!!
    Mar 18 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Four Horsemen Of The Stock Market Apocalypse [View article]
    Due to financial repression cash yields zero. So in the old days if you were say 30% cash and 70% equities you'd get 5% risk free on your cash to at leat partly offset any declines in stocks. Heck you could use that risk free interest and dividends on your longs to buy MORE stock as markets went lower (rebalance). Or you could have bonds and cash to balance, but today bonds with any meaningful yield (that is super long duration) require you to take interest rate risk that could blow you up. I mean 100bps spike rates is gonna eat YEARS of interest and leave you mark to market road kill. FWIW gold stocks seem to be acting like a hedge again, perhaps now that gold is near all-in cost of production? But choose your miner carefully! I think one needs to be CASH + EQUITIES + SHORT + GOLD stocks (?) in this market because CASH + EQUTIES is 100% long wiht cash yielding zero. Damn the Fed.
    Mar 14 08:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Perfect Case Study On When To Sell [View article]
    The historic P/B is only meaningful in the context of ROE and earnings power of Corning. I really think GTAT is a distraction and very much unproven. Even if it exceeds expectations and takes share so what as long as end market is growing. Do you sell BMW 3 years ago since tesla entered? Bad move!! The underlying market is growing like a weed and GLW has other irons in the fire (lifesciences!!). I would be more concerned as a GTAT owner as GLW could enter sapphire as it has the legacy capability.
    Mar 14 08:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Perfect Case Study On When To Sell [View article]
    "I couldn't ask for a more perfect case study on when and why to sell a stock. "

    Really? Let the stock breathe I say. It's on a big discount to the market on your own numbers both P/B and P/E with good prospects. Where it was when you bought it is not relevant and GTAT seems a distraction.
    Mar 13 08:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunday Times: RBS mulls merging ailing Irish unit with rival [View news story]
    Ulcer bank!
    Mar 2 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks You Can Hold Long After The Market Peak [View article]
    KO has a NEGATIVE price return since middle of 1998, and not too positive even when you include divys. Yet it still trades on 18x. Not for me. Pepsi > KO.
    Mar 2 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Raise Cash For Fear Of A Market Crash [View article]
    BDC were one of the worst assets in downturn. This is no surprise as the b/sheet is mush due to pay outs. Dividends from that are hardly gonna be dry powder when needed most.
    Mar 2 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock rally fades on end-of-month profit taking, Ukraine uncertainty [View news story]
    omar are you high? re gold, we are talking about the specific action of the day, not last year.
    Mar 1 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make And How To Avoid Them': Larry Swedroe And The Zen Of Passive Investing [View article]
    ---so you cannot identify the few future winners ahead of time.
    I wonder if you looked it from the point of view of insider buying. I believe that insider buying and outperformance are linked? Do insiders not know if they have a good or undervalued business, one that is better than the market prices or understands? Can an active manager have skills as good as in insider, consistently (probably--based on broader perspective).
    Feb 19 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Gold Miners Have Topped Out [View article]
    To say gold is overvalued without attempting to value it in units of other commodities is lazy
    Feb 17 12:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Mohnish Pabrai's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    "Stocks aren't tickets for horse betting, they're ownership in a business! "
    "Why would investing in stocks be "VALUE CREATING?"
    ----
    Wow! I'm gonna stop this debate because you are probably 22 and have no clue what you are taking about, not even reading my statements and confusing stocks and businesses. At first you come out talking about underlying ownership of businesses and then throw out that concept entirely by dismissing the idea of a value creating business (which may have public securities, ie stocks). You seem to see some "answer" in intrinsic value some other dude calculates for you and accept that all volatility is opportunity when often times it represents investment mistakes. Enough. Good luck worshiping false prophets.
    Feb 15 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Mohnish Pabrai's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Are you a paid shill? You say everyone was down during crisis but I don't know ANY manager who was down 60%. On the heels of a down year no less! You call that consistent. That speaks volumes as to who you must be. I've just taken stats from Pobrai's own reports that show he delivers same as market over fairly LONG objective evaluation periods BEFORE fees with epically MORE volatility. Volatility matters buddy, especially when it represents permanent impairments. I guess you will never need your money? lol. As to the 18 year record, which I have not seen, iT is very different to make $ with tiny sums than hundreds of millions so I am not sure I care about the 18 years as you do--where it looks like Pobrai basically mimicked Marty Whitman et al anyway. Please tell us you've been in the funds for 18 years!! lol I don't know if you work for Pobrai or what but that 60% loss in 2008 (which you are happy to exclude lol))shows me all I need to know. If you advised me to invest with that kind of record I'd fire you! You opine stocks are ownership in biz, but how many of the stocks that Pobrai owned in 2008 that blew up does he own today? You talk about owning biz and presumably underlying biz performance and next breath you talk outcomes (winning) which is not exactly the same. I totally disagree that investing is buying a biz for less than it's worth and selling at fair value. I believe investing is finding VALUE CREATING biz, that you buy at an attractive price. You have bought into marketing nonsense and do not understand that business are changing all the time and can grow -- they are not anchored to a "static" intrinsic value as marketing man says. So big biz owner what is Pobrai's turnover since 2008?. IF he owns 6 stocks and turns over 6 that is 100% (more or less). Are you so sure this is genuine long term investing or marketing?
    Feb 14 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Mohnish Pabrai's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    According to Pobrai's 2011 annual report that I could find on web his flagship P4 fund fell 60% in 2008 (appendix C). Diversification for suckers, really? . That fund was down in 2007 (an up year!) too so underperforming market for two consecutive years (losing 2/3 of capital on paper!!) hardly qualifies as consistent performance. Again it appears his big (cumulative) returns/outperformance was generated when he was managing very little money. So he shows this huge cumulative outpefrformance but most of the $$$ in the fund has seen scary days, not that performance. Also from 10/1/03 (begin period shown appendix c) to 12/31/11 this fund was simply in line with DJI index, with volatility FAR GREATER than index i.e. low sharpe ratio. It does look like Pobrai redeem himself with some decent picks in 2009/2010. Anyway If I pick two stocks: Tesla and Facebook you gonna hand me millions? Really? I'm not saying you need 100 stocks, but pay someone to pick a few? If that's the idea just pick 5 stocks you like from 13-f's.
    Feb 14 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
356 Comments
551 Likes