Is This an Economic Recovery? Assessing the Investing Climate in the Years Ahead [View article]
I think the economy stuff is hooey because in 1999 everyone would have said the world is perfect. You can't look 10 years into the futre in a static way as you miss future innovotation. One thing I really take issue with the idea that we are in the top decile valuation wise. Yes, perhaps if you blook at backward P/E and many companies with losses in an extradanary period. On a current and forward basis I don't see it. JNJ is so expensive? KMB? JPM? Show me. If you do any bottom work you will find that most stocks are no worse than fair value on an earnings basis. Divys have not given a proper signal for decades as companies have rightly or wrongly focused on buybacks. Those that have focused on divys have decent divy's especially via the risk free right. Bottom line: this is no better or worse than any other period to invest in stocks.
THe market (S&P 500) is basically trading at late September '08/very early Oct '08 levels coincinding wtih panic and market melt down. It's 18 months later and we have zero return off those levels and the recovery in full gear and interest rates still at 0. Vanguard money fund yields 1bp. That means you double your money in like 500,000 years lol. The S&P 500 is going back to pre-lehman levels at the very least, then maybe we pause. The credit markets (spreads) are already there if you haven't noticed. This opportunity is so much better than Fall '08 when smart value investors were stepping in too early.
Also, be careful as to what you think constitutes "speculative." only a few years ago mega cap names like AIG, C and Enron where considered safe. Small does not mean risky.
Look, if i told you about my past success you would attack me as bragging and the rear view mirror as irrelevant. My point is the 8 core holdings basically all are members of S&P 500? Markel is probably the only quasi off the beaten track name. Where is the "alpha"? The focus on FCF is excellent but there are names in the market with 20% fcf yields. There are also NO foreign stocks here. Just not impressed. I bet in 2 years this portfolio has virtually NO difference from the S&P 500. I am seeking ALPHA.
That's a laugh Hat trick. Why don't you address my point instead of attacking me. Where is the original work in this portfolo? Where are the mispricings? This is seeking alpha. Not seeking vanguard index fund.
The point is these are mainly S&P 500 stocks. There is no original thinking. This is seeking alpha. Where is the alpha? IT's not about wanting 4x baggers its about finding great biz under the radar not new permutations of SPY
This portfolio should be posted in "seeking mediocrity." It's a bunch of megacap slow moving companies that are widely analyzed=no mis pricings=no alpha.
Have Commodities Gone Beyond Fundamentals? [View article]
"Paper is a promise, metals and other commodities are tangibles that have universal value as a means of exchange and that can till, plant, harvest, process, and transport food (oil and byproducts" ---
Our whole system is built on promises backed by laws dude. So you think a diamond is worth something but a share of Anglo American that owns 45% of the diamond cartel does not? You can keep your iron ore at your house, I'll ley Cynthia Carrol take care of mine.
What if It Was All Just a Big Bubble? [View article]
Your chart shows that *today* things look about normal. There is a bubble in the word bubble by people who don't understand the difference between price, value, and value creation.
Why I'm Negative on Equities Despite Good Earnings Season [View article]
With the first real sign of weakness in the markets since March 2009, people who have made 60% profits --
Who is this mythical person that only bought stocks in March 2009 and has only profits. Reading seeking alpha it seems everyone was short March '09 and must be smarting from the spring '09 losses lol
How Have U.S. Stocks Defied Gravity for So Long? [View article]
That is why the market will allow dividends to persist at an average of two percent while the long-term average dividend is double that amount -- This is idiotic. What matters is earnings power and risk free rate.
Whitney Tilson Explains General Growth, Iridium and Berkshire Holdings [View article]
Berk is like a closed end fund and a proxy for the S&P 500. Do you really need bottom up analysts to tell you about Berk? It is like Chef Ramsey telling you the best think on his menu for breakfeast is a giant pancake.
Large-Cap Stocks and Covered Calls Are Key to 2010 Outperformance - Fund Manager Tyler Vernon [View article]
Everyone and mama is saying large cap quality will outperform. This kind of large scale style call, when shared by everyone, almost never works. Moreover, everyone who like quality (jeremy grantham et al) is saying S&P 500 is overvalued, yet that is the index rife with the quality multinatonals i.e., MCD, KO, JNJ etc!I
Is This an Economic Recovery? Assessing the Investing Climate in the Years Ahead [View article]
Is This an Economic Recovery? Assessing the Investing Climate in the Years Ahead [View article]
Time for Bulls to Reconsider [View article]
8 Core Portfolio Stocks [View article]
8 Core Portfolio Stocks [View article]
8 Core Portfolio Stocks [View article]
8 Core Portfolio Stocks [View article]
8 Core Portfolio Stocks [View article]
Have Commodities Gone Beyond Fundamentals? [View article]
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Our whole system is built on promises backed by laws dude. So you think a diamond is worth something but a share of Anglo American that owns 45% of the diamond cartel does not? You can keep your iron ore at your house, I'll ley Cynthia Carrol take care of mine.
What if It Was All Just a Big Bubble? [View article]
Why I'm Negative on Equities Despite Good Earnings Season [View article]
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Who is this mythical person that only bought stocks in March 2009 and has only profits. Reading seeking alpha it seems everyone was short March '09 and must be smarting from the spring '09 losses lol
How Have U.S. Stocks Defied Gravity for So Long? [View article]
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This is idiotic. What matters is earnings power and risk free rate.
Whitney Tilson Explains General Growth, Iridium and Berkshire Holdings [View article]
Another sign there may be a top in crude is rappers getting into the exploration business, heads tattooed with oil wells. [View news story]
Large-Cap Stocks and Covered Calls Are Key to 2010 Outperformance - Fund Manager Tyler Vernon [View article]