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  • Is This Stock Market Rally Long in the Tooth? [View article]
    This analysis is total and utter witchcraft. What do you use for "inflation"? Why not use the price of gold?
    Dec 25 08:51 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing Market Worries: The Year in Review (And Why We've Still Not Reached a Market Top) [View article]
    re: Wall street recommendations that makes ZERO sense. Many shops now are FORCED to have equal weight buy, sell, hold in the pecking order post the "settlement". So what you say can not, structurally be true. Also CASH is very high, especially in the corporates themselves.
    Dec 23 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P's Most Overbought Close in More Than a Year [View article]
    If IPO/M&A levels are so high why are major banks share prices sooking wind? Talling about the bull market in terms of chinese IPOs is like saying orange juice prices must go down because there is a abundance of Star fruite in polynesia. Rich W you are truly in the juice to star fruit zone with your post.
    Dec 12 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marty Whitman: Great Stock Picker, Wrong on Diversification [View article]
    Roger, the point is that Whitman has trashed the markets over the long term, not that he doesn't make mistakes. You can't cherry pick out random periods out of his performance that don't give the data you'd like to see. Over the past 12 months he's outperformed again. When all is said and done Whitman seems pretty diversified. There's dozens of stocks in TAVFX. There are several countries represented. How many more should he have diversified? If you did not sell during the volatile periods TAVFX is already trading back to Fall Augusut 2008 levels whilst the S&P is still near the begin panic Oct 08 levels. Whitman has done decent I'd say.
    Oct 31 04:20 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Yahoo Can't Pay A Dividend [View article]
    Yahoo reported FCF of $250m this quarter (Q3) which is about 5% annualize relative to its market cap, and it's unlevered. Seems like a a LOT of free cash to me, especially as Alibaba is not a part of that picture.
    Oct 19 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WCI and St. Joe Point the Way Forward for the Housing Market [View article]
    You guys totally miss the point. Most of Joe's land is stated at historic cost at $100-150 an acre from the 1920's. What is their to flush?
    Oct 14 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • St. Joe Co. (JOE -8.7%) heads rapidly downhill as Greenlight's David Einhorn raises questions about its residential real estate development, at the Value Investing Congress.  [View news story]
    I really don't get David on this one. The long term wisdom of this seems about as good as his decision to sell HAR in the low 20's at less than 1/2 its intrinsic value. He's been telling this story since 2007. It seems likely there are impairments at JOE, but NO ONE is valuing the company on the basis he suggests? What's IN the valuation NOW. If you've been to Panama City, you know that there is amazing property not just "rural timber" as suggested. Even "dirt value" of WY and PCL is $2K an acre. JOE b/sheet is net cash. I think JOE is an easy target since it is an asset vs. cashflow story with a high terminal value.
    Oct 13 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget $2000 an Ounce; Gold Set to Plummet [View article]
    Gold to dow ratio makes no sense as a tool. Absolutely none. It is sad when gold bugs don't even understand why (math). Deep
    Oct 8 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons the Dollar Is About to Rally: A Contrarian Case for the Greenback [View article]
    US can't stand its debt obligation, yet debt obligaition is a MINSCULE expense line for us right now. To believe we can't support out debt is to believe in much higher interest rates and to NOT believe that the US=Japan. Most bears have contrary inputs in this way.
    Oct 3 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Goldbugs Are Right; 6 Reasons Why 'Bubble' Is Years From Popping [View article]
    Look at the chart below of the S&P 500 priced in gold, and you can only conclude that gold has to reach $10,000/ounce for the ratio to reach the last trough we saw in 1979
    It makes zero sense to do this exerices unless you are a complete skeptic aboout society. Underpinning this is believing in 30 years S&P companies have created NO value above inflation (which is totally contracty to capital markets theory when entering a stock btw since you are looking for the RISK FREE rate inflation PLUS a real return). The compounded real return of the market over 30 years (even if only 1-2% excess...) should make the S&P dwarf gold,and not stand at any static ratio, making todays spread look mighty small to my eyes. Ask: What were P&G sales in 1979 and today holding inflation fixed...
    Oct 2 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Markets in Short Term: Fear, Hope and Greed Loosely Connected to the Business Cycle [View article]
    We're pretty much in same conditions with Japan except
    I'm pretty much the same as brad pitt (99% same DNA) except ...
    Sep 28 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most Overbought Stocks in the S&P 500 [View article]
    , it sure feels like the 1987 upward push of the stock market into the October expiration.
    Uh yea. Accept the stock market has up 70% the two years to Oct 1 1987 and is the FLAT the pat 2 years off the first wave Oct 2008 ! Just the same lol.
    Sep 22 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Has Reached Its Important Top [View article]
    Now the market has gone up too fast
    Isn't the S&P 500 about flat for the year +/- 2%. Is that really going up too much? Wasnt't Q2 a really bad quarter for the maret. See I get the sense you operate on really short evaluation horizon.

    re: RAS, one issuse is they have covertible debt, valued at much more than the entire market cap, coming do in 2012. RAS continue to make dilutive convertible excahanges below book to pick away at it, but it is like taking icecubes off a glacier. Capital markets will have to cooperate for this to work IMO. I prefer companies that don't need to capital markets to succeed in such a capricious credit market. However, there is nothing wrong with taking a "punt" on a microcap. I wouldn't call it comfy though, it certainly hasn't been for anyone that invested at the end of April.
    Sep 19 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Has Reached Its Important Top [View article]
    Shaw aren't you the guy that said RAS looks like a "comfy" investment in April?! That was your main pick right? Is there ANY stock that has performed worse than RAS on the big board from that day to today? You make bold statements on terribly short horizons, it may be that you are a great contrary indicator so keep the threads coming mate!
    Sep 19 03:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why 2011 Will Be a Tough Slog [View article]
    You guys can't see the real economy because you think it revolves around you. You can't see BMW and Swatch near all time highs and Jardine Matheson having long blown it buy. Ask: why? Maybe you missed the starting gun? In 1900 the UK was much more important than the US of today. The world moved on w/out them. Such is us.
    Sep 17 07:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment