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Deepv

Deepv
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  • Sell Stocks, Buy Gold: Volume Speaks Volumes [View article]
    Stocks have not made a significant new all time high since 2000
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    This is a myth only backed by large cap media based indices. Look at value lines' 1650 EQUALLY weighted since 2000. That is the REAL US market. That thing is up 3x. That's what the average US company has done...
    Jul 9 11:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vodafone (VOD +0.3%) views its Verizon Wireless stake as a more attractive long-term asset than its slumping European ops, and is thus loath to sell it, argues Bernstein's Robin Bienenstock in the wake of the carrier's FQ4 report (included major Y/Y drops in Italian/Spanish revenue). Bienenstock, no stranger to throwing cold water on deal expectations, also thinks Vodafone's remarks about keeping its new $3.15B VZW distribution are a sign Verizon (VZ -1.3%) won't be issuing fresh distributions in the near-term; recent comments from Verizon's CFO also back this up. [View news story]
    VW if it does pay a dividend, MUST pay to ALL shareholders. However, once VOD receives the dividend, it is not obliged to return it to its shareholders.
    May 21 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Reassessment Of Risk And Return For Small Investors [View article]
    Diversification into multiple "sector" baskests of good companies also allows for tax loss management. For example if you own an E&P that is down 30% switch into another good one to offset gains. It's incredibly valuable vs just owning one company in areas where there are no true "unique" assets.
    May 12 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle (CMG) dips in the post session, giving back most of the day's gains after hedge fund manager Jeff Gundlach repeated his short thesis on the company during his presentation today at the Ira Sohn Conference. “All you need to compete with CMG’s core business is a taco truck,” he quips. In fact, Gundlach takes it a step further, saying he's not interested in virtually "anything related to middle-class consumer discretionary income.” [View news story]
    I'm not a fan, but that's like saying all you need to compete with McDonalds is a Weber. Ok. Yea. Fact is Chipotle delivers excelllent bang for buck and a superior consumer experiencene for the most part. Similar to Target, it attracts much more than middle class. Stock may be overvalued fine but fundamentals are sound.
    May 8 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
    I am concerned too but EARNINGS rocketed up in 2011 and stock market went nowhere. We are see re-rating to an appropriate base level to reflect financial repression. Risks is repression ends or recession. Both seem far off.
    May 4 06:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
    Blind mouse up 300% since 2002 in the average US stock in Mavericks "secular bear" lol
    Feb 9 09:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
    I'm not saying we won't go into a bear market, just all evidence suggests we are in a bull market RIGHT now. Just take off you S&P 500 glasses and look to valueline for the evidence. It's up 3.5x over 10 or so years. How is that not a bull market???
    Feb 9 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Is A Buy Soon [View instapost]
    As an ex-tobacco guy I can say that I am very skeptical that DOJ claim will lead to anything. It's a novel claim, similar to the "RICO" action against PM. Also, after so many years its clear that S&P/Moodys' are not going away like Einhorn and others said back in 2009. Not happening, and the structure of this action speaks to that. Finally this probably accelerates MHP split. BUy.
    Feb 7 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
    The problem with this analysis is choice of index. S&P is flawed a it housed overvalued stocks from the internet bubble. If you look at a BROAD US market index like Russell 2000 or better yet the valueline 1650 (average weighted -- and standing at 3x the level of 2002!!!) you can not conclude we are in anything but a bull market now.
    Feb 6 03:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We See What We Want To See [View article]
    If you look at the average US stock since 2000, measured by Valueline 1650, there's no way you could conclude we are in a secular bear market. We could enter a new bear, but it won't have anything to do with tehsecular bear market notion. The issue is people look at S&P which was full of valuation impaired stocks as of 2000. need to look at a much broader index or your own account to see this secular bear ended and is now an urban wall street myth.
    Jan 6 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We See What We Want To See [View article]
    For example let's take Microsoft. MSFT is up 70% from the $15 low in '09, but on an EV/EBIT basis only up about 10% since it has more cash and much higher earnings today. Those commentators who talk market valuation and don't at least try to marry it to a key real world stocks have little credibility to me.
    Jan 5 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We See What We Want To See [View article]
    Tom, One thing I think bulls and bears do is misuse the P/E muliple. You state that current multiple is not cheap usng "pre-90's" argument. I would say that NO multiple is cheap or expensive unless judged against other opportunities, including the risk free rate. Today equity risk premiums are generationally high (E/P less the treasury rate). In my world a P/E of 20x is neither cheap or expensive, more work must be done e.g., is E heading to zero?? what is my risk free rate? What are BBB yielding. The cyclically adjusted P/E is further flawed since it assumes the prior 10 years were "normal"-- when they are not it is garbage in garbage out. When stocks like J&J continue to have yields HIGHER than there 10 years bonds while showing an absensce of net liabilities, at least some stocks can't be expensive. It's a tricky time to own stocks, same as it always is.
    Jan 5 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cost Of Viewing The U.S. As A 'Safe' Haven [View article]
    No Stanley tobacco companies still operate for minority shareholders. Which Chinese companies are really "investments" in that sense. None I know, maybe mind ray. Hint:: buy Chinese companies with more sales outside china than in, showing they can win in a competitive world.
    Dec 16 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The selloff in Apple (AAPL) has reached the point of "insanely insane," says Topeka's Brain White, arguably the Street's biggest bull on the stock. Uber-bull or not, maybe he's got a point. Those selling Apple at a sub-10 PE while holding onto or buying Company X - with no earnings growth, selling at a 20 PE, but yielding 5% - may look back one day and wonder what they were thinking. [View news story]
    For the write who commented that in 10 years you own the company I say so what : it's a toaster. It is RIMM, or NOkia whatver. How much do you want to pay for cashflows of APPL from year 10--terminal? I say at MOST $100bn today, probably less. I think it's HIGHLY likely that AAPL will be earning 1/2 what it earns today 5 years from now. All of you want to play derivative calculus based on ephemeral growth rates over 1 year periods (gambllng!) I am laying out why in the land of integral calculus this thing is NOT CHEAP AT ALL.
    Nov 19 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The selloff in Apple (AAPL) has reached the point of "insanely insane," says Topeka's Brain White, arguably the Street's biggest bull on the stock. Uber-bull or not, maybe he's got a point. Those selling Apple at a sub-10 PE while holding onto or buying Company X - with no earnings growth, selling at a 20 PE, but yielding 5% - may look back one day and wonder what they were thinking. [View news story]
    Apple remains a huge bubble. At $500bn they have to earn $50bn EACH OF THE NEXT 10 years for investors just to break even (that $100bn cash is good for the time value of money only). That is like the MARKET CAP every year of say Diageo (all of it's PERCEIVED future cashflows). Who knows what apple wiht earn 5-years from now when its stuff is all a toaster. DO THE MATH. The law of large numbers is what matters, not the naieve ratio. Elephants don't fly bro'
    Nov 19 07:54 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
388 Comments
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