Dave Wrixon's Comments

'Efficient Markets' Economists Think a Speech Caused Financial Meltdown?

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 04:12:39 -0500

"Now when the stock market's dividend yield is 3%, fully 75% of the present value of stocks comes from dividends that are to be paid more than a decade hence."

And what is worse is many will never be paid at all because the companies will cease to exist.

Western Government Sovereign Debt in Trouble

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 04:09:19 -0500

Well generally if you wish to survive a war, patriotism is not necessarily the best strategy.

Progress Report on That 'Santa Claus Rally'

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 04:06:57 -0500

As puerile as this analysis is, it makes more sense than a lot of the market prediction being spouted for next year.

Imminent Revival of Austrian Economics?

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 04:03:13 -0500

Well if they carry on listening to Krugman, they will end up in a bigger mess than Iceland.

Obama to Blame for Democrats' Meltdown of 2010

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 03:48:38 -0500

Bottom line is it is going to take a generation for the American public to wake up to reality and elect somebody that is going to get the job done. In the meantime, things are going to get a whole lot worse.

In the meantime the UK will this year, for better or worse, elect the heirs of the Thatcherite legacy. That probably means things are going to get worse quicker here, but at least there will be a Revival. I am avoiding the word Recovery, because it has been so bastardized by recent GDP data, I am not sure it is really meaningful anymore.

Iceland Heeds 70% of Electorate; Downgraded to Junk Status

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 03:32:30 -0500

Well realistically, what can be done for a nation that relies on off-shore banking that nobody any longer trusts with their deposits? I guess they will just have to go back to fishing and making lava bread or whatever else they used to do, before doing their take on Masters of the Universe.

Message to Senate: Slow Pace of Treasury Appointments Disgraceful

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:57:26 -0500

Perhaps Brad if they put up Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck it would instill a bit more confidence and finally get the ball rolling?

NY Fed: Looks Like the Recession Is Really Over

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:47:30 -0500

So what actually got solved? Am I missing something?

NY Fed: Looks Like the Recession Is Really Over

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:47:27 -0500

So what actually got solved? Am I missing something?

Western Government Sovereign Debt in Trouble

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:24:03 -0500

OK, so the markets are calling time. But realistically, who do you think has been given the most rope? Brown or Obama? I am sorry but if there is going to be implosion, the fuse may be lit in London but the Bomb Crater will be in Washington.

Why Should Banks Loan When They Can Play the Yield Curve?

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:16:03 -0500

"So wouldn’t it continue to be prudent for the FED to purchase and monetize long-term assets? "

Yep, Obama squanders it, Ben prints it, and GS takes a cut of everything.

Negative Real Interest Rate

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 13:01:43 -0500

Yes, but possibly only in a collapsing currency.

Will BRIC Markets Do as Well in the Coming Decade?

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 12:54:33 -0500

What have you to lose? Compared with the Dow Jones a dead rat would look like a racing certainty.

The Keynesian Multiplier: Less Effective with Each New Stimulus Package

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 12:50:39 -0500

Yes, but what happened to "the biggest Highway construction program since the 1950's"?

I will tell you. Obama lied.

The Keynesian Multiplier: Less Effective with Each New Stimulus Package

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 10:45:45 -0500

"We have now gone through two stimulus packages. One, under the Bush administration and most of one under the Obama administration."

No, you have effectively been continuously Stimulating since 2001, which is why nothing you do now has any chance of creating sustained recovery, and is actually making things much worse because the multiplier is less than unity.

'Greater Depression' More Bullish for Gold than 1930s

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 10:31:45 -0500

It seems to me that Gold is just one way of leveraging the Paradigm Shift in Global Economic Power. My view is that it might not be the most effective way of doing this, but it is a least a relatively risk free and No-Brainer solution to the problem.

As for the Great Depression, in my estimation we should be somewhere near Mid 1932, allowing a bit for faster movement of capital in the Modern age. However, due to interminable meddling we are stuck back in Early 1931, with a much more rosy but far less realistic prognosis of the outcome. On balance, I think the US has far less going for it than it did in the 1930s when it was still taking over the reigns from the British Empire, rather than about to slump into near terminal decline.

Despite Improvements, The Path to Recovery Remains Uncertain

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 15:45:12 -0500

"Yet even the most diehard pessimist could not fail to recognize the numerous signs of a cyclical turning point in the second half of 2009."

I fail to recognize them and am prepared to go on the record to that effect.

U.S. Housing: The Big Picture

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 13:20:12 -0500

It is like planning to survive a Tsunami after the last plane left the atoll.

S&P Expects Further 8-10% Decline Before U.S. Home Prices Bottom Out

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 13:16:37 -0500

If these guys are admitting this, you may be assured that the reality will be much much worse.

Why Should Banks Loan When They Can Play the Yield Curve?

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 13:14:52 -0500

Hmmm, not sure that buying long-term Treasury debt is exactly risk free. Pretty soon it will be yielding real negative growth and market valuations for such securities will plummet, but for now it helps to hide the basic fact that the Big Banks are insolvent.

Is China's Growth Real?

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:20:37 -0500

Yes, but a much better position than a consumption driven economy that is dependent on non-available credit.

China's Manufacturing Sector Likely Grows at Best Pace in Five Years

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:15:08 -0500

Oh yes, they will trading, but much of it will be based on recycling of profits to promote future purchases. Its just a much smaller amount of that recycling will be going into US Treasuries which is going to cause your Mr Obama a massive headache.

Comparison to 1937 Is Too Generous

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:10:52 -0500

Would tend to agree but grammatically perhaps "has" should be "had".

Comparison to 1937 Is Too Generous

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:10:01 -0500

Totally agree, but few will have much positive impact on the US or its markets.

Waiting for the Crash in U.S. Treasuries

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 11:59:36 -0500

Yes, but either way the only thing that counts is confidence. Once that is lost, the Dollar is history.

China's Manufacturing Sector Likely Grows at Best Pace in Five Years

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 08:44:00 -0500

I am stunned. An article with some relevance and credibility. Whatever next? Is this some kind of New Year resolution?

Global Bear Rally: Beware, Apocalypse Ahead

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 08:41:08 -0500

>I find the big issue is that American consumers cannot be replaced at the moment.<

May be, but trying to replace him is not such a hopeless quest as trying to revive him!

Why Free Trade Is Failing America

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 08:35:53 -0500

America did more in the twentieth century to distort global trade than any other nation on Earth, except perhaps Britain in the first half. It would seem the suckers have long memories.

Even Construction Is Failing: The Truth About Employment

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 08:33:03 -0500

So is my paranoia a rational natural defense mechanism after all?

Lessons We Should Have Learned in the Last Year

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 06:25:29 -0500

And the prize goes to Richard Bernstein:

8. Investors should be providers of scarce capital. Return on capital is typically highest where capital is scarce.

And that is precisely why I am focused on Domain Name Speculation in non-Latin scripts.