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frosty

frosty
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  • Is The Dow Overvalued? Comparing Historical Valuations With Fundamentals [View article]
    The Dow is a ridiculous index to follow on a long term basis for 3 reasons: first, its components have changed dramatically over time, 9 changes in the last decade alone, GE is the only company to be in DJIA for the entire history; second, 11 of the so called industrials are not industrials but are insurance (TRV, UNH), financial (JPM, GS, AXP, V), retail (WMT, HD), even fast food (NYSE:MCD); third it's a price index which is why they recently eliminated the low priced BAC with the vastly smaller but higher priced GS.

    In short, it has devolved to a random and changing collection of blue chip stocks that have little in common and whose prices are averaged together. Certainly long term studies of this index have little meaning. This is unlike the DJTA and the DJUA which have more or less retained their integrity over the years.
    Aug 18 08:21 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Signs A Market Bottom Is Forming [View article]
    There is a difference between selling and capitulation. Selling involves taking profits or avoiding further losses. Capitulation is panic driven, unrestrained selling to save what little bit remains. We are definitely not there right now.
    Aug 7 09:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Wal-Mart U.S. CEO faces a long list of pressing problems [View news story]
    Or it could be WMT has simply peaked out, like other retail stars of the past (Sears, Penney, Montgomery Ward, Kresge/Kmart, . . .) and now begins its slow decline. We recently visited the Phoenix area and within a couple of miles there were 2 Walmarts, one huge, the other only very large. Two Walmarts competing against each other. And there may have been more nearby.
    Jul 26 08:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silly Rabbit, Dividends Do Matter In Retirement [View article]
    Many people in retirement need an assured cash flow like that from dividends paid by reliable companies with long term track records. The worst thing that can happen to a retiree is to be forced to sell in a down market to raise needed cash.
    Jul 21 09:47 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 16 Good Reasons To Be Wary Of A Market Downturn [View article]
    There is a mid-ground between bear and bull markets. It's called a correction, which seems more likely given the trends of nearly all major economic and investment indexes.

    One month or one quarter 'time series' tell us nothing about trends as they are simply single data points (#'s 4 - 9). Even the margin debt chart is suspect as it looks at only the last 2 peaks. Wars in various places of the world don't seem to have a long term impact on major world markets. And the actions of individual investors mean nothing.

    Reading this article reminds me of a song I heard, 'I feel so damned depressed' and I wonder if the author heard it too.
    Jul 12 10:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 16 Good Reasons To Be Wary Of A Market Downturn [View article]
    If only a president could control the markets . . . What, then, would this say about Bush, the only president with 2 bear markets to his credit?
    Jul 12 09:42 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. clears way for some oil exports by Pioneer Natural, Enterprise Products [View news story]
    6 years ago, republicans were screaming that Obama was an anti-oil president, opposed to increased drilling and production. Now we're exporting the stuff as his administration has led the way in producing ever more shale oil. Oh wait, won't they now be opposed to further production and especially exporting oil because he is for it?
    Jun 24 06:27 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon in the spotlight with impending Obama gay rights move [View news story]
    Bush issued far more executive orders than Obama.
    Jun 17 06:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Transportation: What's Taking The U.S. So Long? [View article]
    While there is nearly zero conversion loss from plug to car, the loss from origin on the grid to the plug is upwards of 50%. True, you can burn coal, oil or gas or even trash to make electricity, however the losses after that are significant. EV fans usually don't understand this. And David, it would take one helluvan electric motor (or 18of them) to power a long haul truck. I doubt this is on anyone's to-do list.
    Jun 16 07:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rand Paul Could Push Apple Past $100 [View article]
    This could be killed in an instant if Obama came out IN FAVOR of it - the House would surely vote it down.
    Jun 11 09:12 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell In May? No Way! [View article]
    Didn't this slogan originate decades ago by brokers who, after receiving bonuses in 1Q, decided to take the summer off? You know, back when brokers' commissions were 3% - 5% (unless your were mega-wealthy).
    Jun 4 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Split: What You Need To Know [View article]
    After you suggest that the post-split price will make the stock accessible to more investors, presumably increasing volume, you doubt the daily volume will be 70 million but more like 50 million? Why should you not assume volume will increase? In addition, company buy-back programs seldom speculate about price movements, although they make take advantage major moves. Typically, they proceed at a measured pace, price moving up or down. A good part of this article is speculation.
    May 27 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WWE's stock smackdown is a blow to Vince McMahon's credibility [View news story]
    Does this mean Linda can't afford to run for the senate again?
    May 17 08:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts [View news story]
    the cash buyers are probably Blackstone and KKR.
    May 16 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer the latest U.S. firm to look overseas for lower taxes [View news story]
    'Members of Congress say that the moves are symptomatic of the need to revamp the U.S. tax code.' Well then, why in the hell don't they do it?!!!!? Instead of sitting on their asses blaming the other party or Obama for the mess.
    Apr 29 08:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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